| MBB/WBB 📺 NCAA Selection Sunday Show: 6 PM ET on CBS (and streaming.) ~~ Alabama #1 Overall Seed.

[#80]

They are coming on strong. You have to like the story of Bama and UCLA with '21 still fresh in our minds.

In my view things have pretty well shaken themselves out for the tournament. I'm thinking we'll see the title go to Baylor, UCLA, Tennessee, Virginia, Kansas, Texas, Houston, or Purdue (setting Bama aside.) Eight of those would make a fun Elite 8 field.

I would love some payback on UCLA.

 

[Bammerboy321]

Two and a half hours until the first bracket is released

 

[Bammerboy321]

I would love some payback on UCLA.

I would too, but I'd like to avoid them at the same time. Teams like them have given us fits.

 

[#80]

I would too, but I'd like to avoid them at the same time. Teams like them have given us fits.

LOL .... good point.

 

[RTB X Bot]

 

[TerryP]

Talk about way too early predictions. I guess Lunardi has to do something to keep himself busy and get some clicks!

So that was in the middle of December. Looking back, was it too early to start looking at the teams and seeding?

The top 16 comes out in a few minutes. Here's the top 24 (bracket averages) back then. Duke, Arkansas, Maryland, and Indiana are wrong for the top 16 of of those 24? (For context, there are 94 brackets published to date.)

 

[TerryP]

The image I'm about to post is from a bracket compiled by "Crazy Sports Dude." Over the last five years he's been the most accurate bracketologist in invitations and seeding. The official list versus ...

They use the acronym Crazy for his bracket/site.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

 

[RTB X Bot]

 

[TerryP]

 

[rick4bama]

Here something I didn't know? If you are the No#1 seed you pick the place you go in the 1st and 2rd round? Some of you here is this true?

 

[TerryP]

Here something I didn't know? If you are the No#1 seed you pick the place you go in the 1st and 2rd round? Some of you here is this true?

No. It's a committee decision where you're placed.

They do favor #1 seeds citing travel time, etc.

 

[Rolltide24]

So that was in the middle of December. Looking back, was it too early to start looking at the teams and seeding?

Yes, especially if you’re a Connecticut fan.

 

[1CrimsonTider]

Yes, especially if you’re a Connecticut fan.

As they say there's still time to delete this.

Jerry Palm has UConn as his #17 team. That UConn team beat the #1 team in the nation. It's a team to watch in the tournament. They are a good ball team.

85-90% of the teams in that graphic are going to be dancing. If you were looking ahead at the tournament you knew who to watch.

 

[RTB X Bot]

 

[1CrimsonTider]

Just got this email breaking down aTm and Bama. She pulled it off one of the Bama forums.

Using kenpom's game probabilities, you can calculate the chance a team finishes conference play with various record outcomes. I'll list them here for Bama and Texas A&M. I'll break it up by home and away records and then overall records. First, here are the listed game by game win probs for Bama the rest of the way:

96%--@SC (83-63)
81%--ARK (80-70)
82%--aub (79-69)
65%--@A&M (77-73)

Prob to finish 2-0 at home: 66.42%
Prob to finish 1-1 at home: 30.16%
Prob to finish 0-2 at home: 3.42%

Prob to finish 2-0 on road: 62.40%
Prob to finish 1-1 on road: 36.20%
Prob to finish 0-2 on road: 1.40%

Prob to finish 4-0 overall: 41.45%
Prob to finish 3-1 overall: 42.86%
Prob to finish 2-2 overall: 13.98%
Prob to finish 1-3 overall: 1.66%
Prob to finish 0-4 overall: 0.05%

The two likeliest record results are 2-0 at home and 2-0 on the road, but the overall likeliest combined record is 3-1 (16-2 overall). Bama has a 84.31% chance to finish with a record no worse than 16-2. As long as Texas A&M doesn't go undefeated (4.40% chance), that's enough to clinch the SEC title outright.

Here are the numbers for Texas A&M:

43%--TN (65-66)
43%--@MST (62-64)
68%--@MS (71-66)
35%--AL (73-77)

Prob to finish 2-0 at home: 15.05%
Prob to finish 1-1 at home: 47.90%
Prob to finish 0-2 at home: 37.05%

Prob to finish 2-0 on road: 29.24%
Prob to finish 1-1 on road: 52.52%
Prob to finish 0-2 on road: 18.24%

Prob to finish 4-0 overall: 4.40%
Prob to finish 3-1 overall: 21.91%
Prob to finish 2-2 overall: 38.73%
Prob to finish 1-3 overall: 28.20%
Prob to finish 0-4 overall: 6.76%

The two likeliest record results are 1-1 at home and 1-1 on the road, and the overall likeliest combined record is 2-2 (14-4 overall). I believe the metrics haven't caught up to how well A&M is playing today vs. how they played earlier in the season, so I'm guessing these probabilities are low. It would be nice for Tennessee to get their act together and knock them off this week.

 

[BamaFan334]

View attachment 23513

Quick question, was that NCAA bracket release even after the results of the Tennessee game were taken into consideration?

 

[TerryP]

Quick question, was that NCAA bracket release even after the results of the Tennessee game were taken into consideration?

...released this past Saturday at noon; so, yes.

 

[SnakeDoc]

Why send Kansas east and Purdue west? Where are the first round games being played? Off the top of my head the opposite would seem to lessen travel.

 

[UAgrad93]

Why send Kansas east and Purdue west? Where are the first round games being played? Off the top of my head the opposite would seem to lessen travel.

They have “pods” set up that actually reduce their travel for the first 2 rounds. Example- Legacy Arena in B’ham is a host site for those 2 rounds, yet it isn’t exclusive to the South region like it would’ve been 20-30 years ago. Here’s a look

2023 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[SnakeDoc]

They have “pods” set up that actually reduce their travel for the first 2 rounds. Example- Legacy Arena in B’ham is a host site for those 2 rounds, yet it isn’t exclusive to the South region like it would’ve been 20-30 years ago. Here’s a look

2023 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

That is so stupid. I'm beginning to remember why I quit following college basketball for so many years.