🏈 SECG week...y'all wanna talk about Georgia?

[bamafan9201]

Your spreadsheet is off. Look at Bama line

What's off?

 

[OldPlayer]

Your spreadsheet is off. Look at Bama line

The spreadsheet is off. You can’t add averages.

 

[Justneedme81]

Yes everything is off. It doesn't align with what was said.

 

[bamafan9201]

The spreadsheet is off. You can’t add averages.

Yes everything is off. It doesn't align with what was said.

I feel like the numbers are throwing you guys for a loop here or something. Did you mean percentages or averages? You can certainly add up averages of different teams and divide by the number of teams to determine an overall AVERAGE for a certain stat.

If I need to break down the wisdom for you more, Essentially Georgia's average opponent scores less and gives up more points per game than Bama's average opponent. Across their entire schedule. What this means is, Georgia inherently has been playing weaker opponents throughout the year and padding their overall stats over the course of the year.

Bama has been playing stronger opponents, thus their average opponent has roughly 2 PPG on offense MORE and gives up 2 PPG LESS on the defensive side. Which isn't the exact number but a round number is easier to deal with here.

IF you took both (hypothetical) opponents, since they don't exist, and put them against each other, Vegas would likely give a 4 point advantage to Bama's hypothetical team, because of those STATS.

Thus the conclusion: Georgia's stat lines that are being thrown around on social media are inflated, Bama's are undervalued, and the game is MUCH closer than it looks in the current state.

 

[Justneedme81]

No, I feel like you're missing what we're telling you.

Go look at the spreadsheet.

Look at Georgia row and then look at Alabama row . It's off by a row.

 

[Justneedme81]

Okay alright

 

[OldPlayer]

I feel like the numbers are throwing you guys for a loop here or something. Did you mean percentages or averages? You can certainly add up averages of different teams and divide by the number of teams to determine an overall AVERAGE for a certain stat.

Physically you can (the spreadsheet won’t say no), but the average of averages is not the same as an average of behavior.

 

[Justneedme81]

I feel like the spreadsheet is flawed. It would be easier to compare common opponents on defense and offense, and you can see the actual trends that way. So here's an example.

Team A and B played X1, x2, x3.

Team A won the game against x1 50-3
Team B won the game against x1 21-10

Team A won the game against x2 7-3
Team B won the game against x2 48-43

Team A won the game against x3 21-20
Team B won the game against x3 21-17

So, who's really the best team? A or B?

Do you have to go and look at their opponents and see how much they're averaging points per game and allowed points per game? Will it really matter?

 

[bamafan9201]

I feel like the spreadsheet is flawed. It would be easier to compare common opponents on defense and offense, and you can see the actual trends that way. So here's an example.

Team A and B played X1, x2, x3.

Team A won the game against x1 50-3
Team B won the game against x1 21-10

Team A won the game against x2 7-3
Team B won the game against x2 48-43

Team A won the game against x3 21-20
Team B won the game against x3 21-17

So, who's really the best team? A or B?

Do you have to go and look at their opponents and see how much they're averaging points per game and allowed points per game? Will it really matter?

I think that's one way to look at things, but common opponents and scores of games differ vastly due to factors as well. Did they play at home? Were they penalized more? Did they have more turnovers? There's flaws to each and every system and way of looking at match-ups and attempting to predict trends.

Physically you can (the spreadsheet won’t say no), but the average of averages is not the same as an average of behavior.

You're kinda saying that stats don't matter at all here, considering that input then no team is better than any other team ever. Stats can help paint a picture, but the game still has to be played so there is margin for differences.


If you guys want just a broken down scoresheet of points vs points of common opponents it's pretty easy to find that, look at the schedules of both teams.

Georgia outscored common opponents - 168-60

Bama outscored common opponents - 134-75

If you just for some reason look at just that stat line, Georgia probably should be favored by 10 points or more in this game. We have no hope, the sky is falling, season is over. Didn't realize you two were so pessimistic about our chances

 

[BamaFan334]

Stated earlier that Milroe is the X-factor. Probably stating the obvious... Milroe will make or break how things go plus our ability to stop the run. I think we will know how this game is going to go early.

He's going to need to be LSU-Milroe and not Auburn-Milroe. I say that in a way that you could tell he was not wanting to run the football against Auburn. Its the two crossing the line of scrimmage and trying to hop back over the line and how slow he looked once he finally decided there was no other option. the burst of speed we saw multiple times against LSU is what we need to see. They cannot run with him if he plays the LSU version of himself. The Auburn version was great as far as accuracy, but the LSU version was his best all around look to me.

 

[Justneedme81]

I think that's one way to look at things, but common opponents and scores of games differ vastly due to factors as well. Did they play at home? Were they penalized more? Did they have more turnovers? There's flaws to each and every system and way of looking at match-ups and attempting to predict trends.


You're kinda saying that stats don't matter at all here, considering that input then no team is better than any other team ever. Stats can help paint a picture, but the game still has to be played so there is margin for differences.


If you guys want just a broken down scoresheet of points vs points of common opponents it's pretty easy to find that, look at the schedules of both teams.

Georgia outscored common opponents - 168-60

Bama outscored common opponents - 134-75

If you just for some reason look at just that stat line, Georgia probably should be favored by 10 points or more in this game. We have no hope, the sky is falling, season is over. Didn't realize you two were so pessimistic about our chances

we never said that. we were talking about how the data was computed.... not about the team.

 

[OldPlayer]

I think that's one way to look at things, but common opponents and scores of games differ vastly due to factors as well. Did they play at home? Were they penalized more? Did they have more turnovers? There's flaws to each and every system and way of looking at match-ups and attempting to predict trends.


You're kinda saying that stats don't matter at all here, considering that input then no team is better than any other team ever. Stats can help paint a picture, but the game still has to be played so there is margin for differences.


If you guys want just a broken down scoresheet of points vs points of common opponents it's pretty easy to find that, look at the schedules of both teams.

Georgia outscored common opponents - 168-60

Bama outscored common opponents - 134-75

If you just for some reason look at just that stat line, Georgia probably should be favored by 10 points or more in this game. We have no hope, the sky is falling, season is over. Didn't realize you two were so pessimistic about our chances

If it’s accurate, the end number would be the same whether you average averages or create an average with the raw data. I guarantee you won’t get the same answer.

 

[UAgrad93]

I think Kendrick Law could play a key as well for the Good guys!!!

 

[Scrape&Search1032]

I think Kendrick Law could play a key as well for the Good guys!!!

He's really turned it on as of late. He's been extremely productive, extremely unselfish as well.... guy blocks his ass off.

 

[BamaFan615]

Law has a little bit of some Deebo Samuel in him.

Not on same level - yet, but similar playing traits.

 

[bamaledge]

I can see this game being a good game for the good guys or an absolute shit show, depending on what team shows up. But, I feel like you can’t factor in the barn game because there is some serious voodoo in jerdan hair stadium.

 

[Justneedme81]

2023 SEC championship vs UGA
2022 SEC championship vs UGA
2012 national championship vs
Iron Bowl vs Cam Newton’s Auburn


Then this:

 

[TerryP]

@Justneedme81 Just a personal opinion here ...

I don't trust any statistics coming from PFF. They simply don't have the man power to rate players and games the way they portray themselves.

 

[Justneedme81]

@Justneedme81 Just a personal opinion here ...

I don't trust any statistics coming from PFF. They simply don't have the man power to rate players and games the way they portray themselves.

That's fair though. I don't always go by the number. All I need to know is that we can affect him somehow, somewhat.

 

[ElephantStomp]

If we can keep Bowers from having a big game I like our chances, if Bowers goes off we’re dead in the water