The guiding metric is now the CFP rankings, not the AP or Coaches’ poll. We don’t, and won’t, play Ohio State (current #1 team), Michigan or Florida State.
| FTBL If Bama Wins Out Do They Make The Playoffs
- Thread starter alabama mike
- Start date
I'm speaking of Georgia and wherever they will be ranked 1-3 by SEC Championship time shall we win out.
If Jawja wins out to the SECCG, they will be #1. In the very least UM will be exposed with the remaining games they have left. They may win them but it will not be dominating like Jawja against UF. Now if Jawja loses to MO, things change.
I disagree. UGA’s schedule is weak. If tOSU and UGA both win out, UGA isn’t overtaking the Buckeyes.
Got the two teams mixed up. Happens.
On the same end, the guiding metric for the CFP ranking right now are undefeated, one loss teams, then two loss teams...
To close out the season, UGA's schedule is stronger than that of OSU, or Michigan, or Washington. Every season we see the first release of the season of the CFB rankings and they really aren't ranking the best teams, just records.
We'll see SOS come into play more in the next few weeks. It has every season with the committee.
I don’t believe if we win out we make the playoffs. UGA although their schedule gets a little tougher I don’t see them losing, Michigan and tOSU play each other, but if it’s close I could see the committee keeping them both in the top 4 and FSU will win out and even if Mich or tOSU gets knocked out there’s Washington and Oregon if they win out they’ll be in. I also think the committee looks at the eye test and for most of the year we’ve squeaked by
Nah, just win out.
I agree let’s win out, but we need people to lose
I'm not worried about the other teams. Bama is getting better each week and it clearly show. I'm not really worried about the other teams. By the time we play in SEC Championship game and we can wrap the SEC West by winning at Kentucky next week.... we should be in top 6.. we just need to be in right position ranking wise....
IMO, the loser of tOSU and Michigan is out. The committee is supposed to weigh conference championships heavily. The loser of tOSU and Michigan won’t even play in their conference championship game. It looks like there will be multiple one-loss teams that may be conference champions.
Teams in front of Bama as of today...
Ohio State- Only difficult regular season game left is @ Michigan. If they won that, they'd then get a very pedestrian team in the conference title game, but I wouldn't put completely it past them to blow it. But if they beat UM, they are sitting pretty.
Georgia- They get Ole Miss at home, then the Vols on the road, finish at GT. The Vols stand out there, at Neyland, as a game that could get interesting. UGA will be coming off of 2 pretty physical games heading into that one. How does UGA respond after finally playing 3 really solid teams in a row? Probably just fine, but they aren't invincible. And an SECCG would loom.
Michigan- They to go Penn State, then Maryland, then finish at home with OSU. PSU game will be tricky, but I have zero confidence in Franklin... then again, these distractions for UM are pilling up and if Harbaugh has to start containing a wild fire, he's more likely prone to just accidentally spread it. But, IMO, Michigan won't get in with 1 loss. The CFP folks will never admit it, but there will be a shit ton of pressure on them from outside to to take care of this Michigan issue. A loss would allow that (assuming there isn't compete chaos in the final month). Would be awkward for their AD Warde Manual, but tough shit for him.
Florida State- FSU just keeps quietly winning. They've got Miami at home and @ Florida as their only loseable games left. On paper, they should win both, but have a feeling that game in the Swamp will be tricky. A conference championship game against a squad like Louisville wouldn't be a cake walk either. Personally, I think they'll drop one somewhere, which would put them closer to the end of the 1 loss queue.
Washington- The Huskies have been living dangerously for the last month. They have Utah, @ Oregon St, and Washington State left. Beyond that, they'd have the league championship game and a likely rematch with Oregon. I would be stunned if they won all those.
Oregon- Ducks are playing good football. They've got USC, @ ASU, and Oregon State at home. They should handle all 3 and then get revenge on Washington, but if they falter on any of those, they are toast.
Texas- Their play the last few weeks is similar to Washington... if they played anyone else with a heartbeat, I wouldn't consider them a threat, but they get 3 favorable games to close it out in @ TCU, @ Iowa State, and Texas Tech. Maybe getting a hot Oklahoma State team in the Big 12 championship game? That would be interesting. A 2nd loss would be a dagger.
Alabama- Closing it out with games on the road at Kentucky and at auburn. Obviously, the Tide can't afford to drop any... and when game control has been a sticking point in the past with the Committee, it would be helpful if the Tide can make them pretty wins. A possible, eventual matchup with UGA in Atlanta would loom large, and hold more weight than normal for both teams. One thing that would be worth watching if this matchup happens is, where are both teams ranked by the Committee going into the game? But also, where are some of the teams Bama has beaten ranked? Ole Miss, Vols, LSU... If the Committee has them trending higher, it is a good indication that they are going to use those wins as strong data points in Alabama's favor should Bama finish with just the early season loss to Texas. But, as with Michigan, Oregon, and Texas, Bama can't afford to drop one without cashing in on a major miracle.
So to wrap up, either Ohio State or Michigan is guaranteed a loss. Between Washington and Oregon, at least another loss will be dished out. Besides those, history has told us time and time again that some level of upset chaos will ensure over the next 4 weeks, it's just a matter of how much and who gets clipped. Bottom line for Alabama, take care of business, stay away from the land mines, and get to Atlanta with just 1 loss, a healthy roster, and reclaim the SEC .
Ohio State- Only difficult regular season game left is @ Michigan. If they won that, they'd then get a very pedestrian team in the conference title game, but I wouldn't put completely it past them to blow it. But if they beat UM, they are sitting pretty.
Georgia- They get Ole Miss at home, then the Vols on the road, finish at GT. The Vols stand out there, at Neyland, as a game that could get interesting. UGA will be coming off of 2 pretty physical games heading into that one. How does UGA respond after finally playing 3 really solid teams in a row? Probably just fine, but they aren't invincible. And an SECCG would loom.
Michigan- They to go Penn State, then Maryland, then finish at home with OSU. PSU game will be tricky, but I have zero confidence in Franklin... then again, these distractions for UM are pilling up and if Harbaugh has to start containing a wild fire, he's more likely prone to just accidentally spread it. But, IMO, Michigan won't get in with 1 loss. The CFP folks will never admit it, but there will be a shit ton of pressure on them from outside to to take care of this Michigan issue. A loss would allow that (assuming there isn't compete chaos in the final month). Would be awkward for their AD Warde Manual, but tough shit for him.
Florida State- FSU just keeps quietly winning. They've got Miami at home and @ Florida as their only loseable games left. On paper, they should win both, but have a feeling that game in the Swamp will be tricky. A conference championship game against a squad like Louisville wouldn't be a cake walk either. Personally, I think they'll drop one somewhere, which would put them closer to the end of the 1 loss queue.
Washington- The Huskies have been living dangerously for the last month. They have Utah, @ Oregon St, and Washington State left. Beyond that, they'd have the league championship game and a likely rematch with Oregon. I would be stunned if they won all those.
Oregon- Ducks are playing good football. They've got USC, @ ASU, and Oregon State at home. They should handle all 3 and then get revenge on Washington, but if they falter on any of those, they are toast.
Texas- Their play the last few weeks is similar to Washington... if they played anyone else with a heartbeat, I wouldn't consider them a threat, but they get 3 favorable games to close it out in @ TCU, @ Iowa State, and Texas Tech. Maybe getting a hot Oklahoma State team in the Big 12 championship game? That would be interesting. A 2nd loss would be a dagger.
Alabama- Closing it out with games on the road at Kentucky and at auburn. Obviously, the Tide can't afford to drop any... and when game control has been a sticking point in the past with the Committee, it would be helpful if the Tide can make them pretty wins. A possible, eventual matchup with UGA in Atlanta would loom large, and hold more weight than normal for both teams. One thing that would be worth watching if this matchup happens is, where are both teams ranked by the Committee going into the game? But also, where are some of the teams Bama has beaten ranked? Ole Miss, Vols, LSU... If the Committee has them trending higher, it is a good indication that they are going to use those wins as strong data points in Alabama's favor should Bama finish with just the early season loss to Texas. But, as with Michigan, Oregon, and Texas, Bama can't afford to drop one without cashing in on a major miracle.
So to wrap up, either Ohio State or Michigan is guaranteed a loss. Between Washington and Oregon, at least another loss will be dished out. Besides those, history has told us time and time again that some level of upset chaos will ensure over the next 4 weeks, it's just a matter of how much and who gets clipped. Bottom line for Alabama, take care of business, stay away from the land mines, and get to Atlanta with just 1 loss, a healthy roster, and reclaim the SEC .
Ohio State - Don't see them losing to anyone but Michigan, if they lose they could drop, but I doubt they go below us so tOSU and Michigan are likely taking up 2 spots this year. I don't see tOSU losing any of their remaining games.
Georgia - If we beat them at the end and it's not some instant classic, they should be put behind us. Their weak schedule overall will factor in a bit and the more recent loss, could put them behind us in the 1 loss order.
Michigan - Between them and tOSU those are the two likely automatic playoff members if they avoid an upset. Looking at their schedule the only obstacle is @Penn State. If they lose that game and drop in ranking and then lose to tOSU then we could see 1 more spot open up. I don't expect them to drop that game, but it's possible.
Florida State - Does not play anyone tricky, maybe the @Florida game at the end trips them up, but I doubt it. Likely FSU ends this season undefeated and takes up 1 of the remaining spots left.
Washington - vs Utah and @Oregon St are both intriguing match-ups for an upset, considering they've been living on the edge a bit in some of these games. Maybe after the emotional USC game there will be a let down this week. I could see them dropping a game and being pushed back.
Oregon - vs USC and vs Oregon St are interesting match-ups to keep an eye on, but I honestly see the ducks continuing winning into the post season and taking up the final spot in the standings.
Texas - Texas has a pretty easy cakewalk into the postseason and with a win over us, likely keeps us out of the playoffs EVEN if some of the scenarios above do actually happen.
In the end, the rankings likely shakeout as if we beat Georgia
1. tOSU
2. FSU
3. Oregon/Washington
4. Texas/Michigan
5. Texas/Michigan
6. Alabama
7. Georgia
I doubt we're in the playoffs this year unless we see
Michigan lose twice
Texas drop their Championship game
We beat Georgia
Washington drops a game or two AND Oregon drop the championship game
Love the ideas, this is the worst year for us because of our mediocre performance after the Texas loss, everyone wrote us off and teams leapfrogged us earlier in the year in the rankings. The teams that leapfrogged us are the ones standing in our way late in the year now, we only have ourselves to blame for that. Crazier things have happened, but we're talking about one of the craziest endings to CFB season ever.
USC Failing to take down Washington at home likely sealed our chance of the Pac-12 not having someone in the playoffs this year.
Georgia - If we beat them at the end and it's not some instant classic, they should be put behind us. Their weak schedule overall will factor in a bit and the more recent loss, could put them behind us in the 1 loss order.
Michigan - Between them and tOSU those are the two likely automatic playoff members if they avoid an upset. Looking at their schedule the only obstacle is @Penn State. If they lose that game and drop in ranking and then lose to tOSU then we could see 1 more spot open up. I don't expect them to drop that game, but it's possible.
Florida State - Does not play anyone tricky, maybe the @Florida game at the end trips them up, but I doubt it. Likely FSU ends this season undefeated and takes up 1 of the remaining spots left.
Washington - vs Utah and @Oregon St are both intriguing match-ups for an upset, considering they've been living on the edge a bit in some of these games. Maybe after the emotional USC game there will be a let down this week. I could see them dropping a game and being pushed back.
Oregon - vs USC and vs Oregon St are interesting match-ups to keep an eye on, but I honestly see the ducks continuing winning into the post season and taking up the final spot in the standings.
Texas - Texas has a pretty easy cakewalk into the postseason and with a win over us, likely keeps us out of the playoffs EVEN if some of the scenarios above do actually happen.
In the end, the rankings likely shakeout as if we beat Georgia
1. tOSU
2. FSU
3. Oregon/Washington
4. Texas/Michigan
5. Texas/Michigan
6. Alabama
7. Georgia
I doubt we're in the playoffs this year unless we see
Michigan lose twice
Texas drop their Championship game
We beat Georgia
Washington drops a game or two AND Oregon drop the championship game
Love the ideas, this is the worst year for us because of our mediocre performance after the Texas loss, everyone wrote us off and teams leapfrogged us earlier in the year in the rankings. The teams that leapfrogged us are the ones standing in our way late in the year now, we only have ourselves to blame for that. Crazier things have happened, but we're talking about one of the craziest endings to CFB season ever.
USC Failing to take down Washington at home likely sealed our chance of the Pac-12 not having someone in the playoffs this year.
This, take care of what you can take care of. Everything else is out of our hands and hopefully works out for the good guys. If it does not, well we only have ourselves to blame with how we played. Play well, win and make it a hard choice for the committee.
The way I see it right now - in no particular order:
(1) Bama/UGA - SEC Champ
(2) OSU/Michigan -B10 Champ
(3) Washington/Oregon -PAC12 Champ
(4) Florida State
With Texas on the outside looking in.
(1) Bama/UGA - SEC Champ
(2) OSU/Michigan -B10 Champ
(3) Washington/Oregon -PAC12 Champ
(4) Florida State
With Texas on the outside looking in.
Hate that the Bama game is a noon game, but we just need to come out and play our game and we'll be fine. The Ole Miss-Georgia game is the game I'm most looking forward to. The schematic show we'll get to witness between Smart and Kiffin is gonna be a fun one to watch, both have been on a winning streak coming into this game, playoff hopes on the line. I know some of our fanbase want kiffin to come here when Saban is done, I'm not one of them....but this game could potentially change my mind, at least little, on him coming to Alabama. Hopeful that it's a great game.
UGA will beat OM by 2 to 3 scores.... It will a double digit win for UGA,. Kiffin is not going to win a big game. He is going to spend all his time on twitter trolling Smart while Smart is in the athletic offices in Athens getting his team ready for the game.
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