I agree with everything you said except for I don’t believe Clemson beats usI'm thinking LSU in the Sugar Bowl. If they lose to UGA in the SECCG, they'll be the runner-up and would get the invite. And I see Bama playing in something like the Liberty.
I've read where somebody said Bama vs Clemson in the Orange Bowl. But I don't see that happening. Plus I think Clemson would annihilate Bama (shades of January, 2019).
Bama's not making it to the CFP this year. And they don't deserve it. A 2-loss team doesn't deserve to make it in, especially one that isn't even playing in its conference championship game.