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Prediction time: What's in store for the 2018 Louisville football season?
GoCards.com
Chris Person • CardinalSports.com@RivalsChris
With the departure of Lamar Jackson along with a slew of veteran contributors, national pundits have pegged Louisville as a team that will be rebuilding in 2018. Regardless of the national perception, the Cardinals return a significant amount of talent and may have one of the deepest teams they have ever fielded. As the opening game against Alabama inches closer, we take a look at each game to see what is in store for Louisville and try to predict what the 2018 season will look like.
Louisville Projected S&P+ Rank - 29
Louisville Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 5
Louisville Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank -98
Louisville vs. Alabama
Projected S&P+ Rank - 2
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 12
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 2
Win Probability (S&P+) - 15%
My Prediction: Alabama by 15
Most people nationally have Bama big in this game but I'm just not buying it. Alabama is stacked at every position from a talent perspective but the quarterback controversy, lack of returning defensive experience, and injuries have made it where the Crimson Tide may not be quite to the level they were in 2017. Specifically, Alabama's secondary appears to be somewhat of a weakness (compared to the rest of the team) and something Louisville's passing attack may be able to take advantage of. Still, Alabama's offensive line and running game looks to be a strength this year and with Louisville's inexperience at defensive line, Alabama may be able to just grind the Cardinals on the ground the whole game.
Indiana State @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - NR
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - NR
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - NR
Win Probability (S&P+) - 100%
My Prediction - Louisville by 48
Louisville will open their 2018 home schedule and break in the new stadium expansion with an easy win against Indiana St. This will be one of the games that the Cardinals will likely see at least Malik Cunningham get some playing time as well as possibly Jordan Travis.
Western Kentucky @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 90
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 100
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 73
Win Probability (S&P+) - 83%
My Prediction - Louisville by 30
Western Kentucky was not very good in 2017 and they will be young and inexperienced in 2018 which makes for what should be a pretty easy home win for the Cardinals. Much like Indiana St., I'd look for Louisville's backup QB's to get plenty of playing time.
Louisville @ Virginia
Projected S&P+ Rank - 73
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 108
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 32
Win Probability (S&P+) - 67%
My Prediction - Louisville by 9
Louisville will likely be coming into the Virginia game 2-1 and while at first glance, the Hoos wouldn't appear to be much of a concern, this first true road game of the year may yield some problems. First and foremost, Virginia's defense (particular the linebackers and defensive backs) looks to be quite formidable. Another aspect that may make things a little more difficult for the Cardinals is that Virginia will likely be starting JUCO QB Bryce Perkins, a dual threat QB that is quite athletic. This could test a young Louisville defense and therefore keep this game fairly competitive. Still, Louisville's offensive line and running game should be able to lead the Cardinals to a victory, albeit possibly too close for comfort.
Florida State @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 18
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 31
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 23
Win Probability (S&P+) - 49%
My Prediction - Louisville by 4
This should be an incredibly fun game for fans at Cardinal Stadium. Florida St. has the talent all over the field to be a problem for opponents, particular with returning RB Cam Akers leading a star studded offense. While I think it's safe to say FSU's talent is greater than Louisville's, the Cardinals will have the help of it being a home game. Another factor that I'm really curious about is Willie Taggart. I know the buzz out of Oregon was that Taggart leaving was not something people were unhappy about. In fact, most seemed like they wanted that to happen. Yes, sour grapes are definitely a factor, but there appeared to be at least some legitimacy to their claims. I'm not entirely sure just how good Taggart is as a coach and because of that, I think Louisville has a good chance to beat the Seminoles again in 2018.
Georgia Tech @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 53
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 40
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 65
Win Probability (S&P+) - 68%
My Prediction - Louisville by 3
This game likely won't be very fun to watch. Louisville's still fairly inexperienced defense will be tested with the spread option of coach Paul Johnson's offense. I don't think there is any doubt that Louisville's talent is superior to that of Tech's, but preparing for such a different offense is a monumental task that focuses around discipline and communication. Will the Cards defense be up to the challenge? I think they will, but that doesn't mean this game will be an easy one.
Louisville @ Boston College
Projected S&P+ Rank - 48
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 82
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 37
Win Probability (S&P+) - 56%
My Prediction - Boston College by 8
After a great start to the year, I think Louisville's trip to Boston College could ultimately result in a loss. Sophomore running back AJ Dillon is an absolute monster and the 245lbs back isn't the only young Boston College player on offense to be on the lookout for. Sophomores to-be Anthony Johnson and Kobay White are both up and coming players for BC at both quarterback and wide receiver after leading the team at their particular positions during their freshman year. On the other side, Louisville's offense shouldn't have too much problem moving the ball against the Boston College defense, but assuming Dillon controls the game on the ground like I expect he may, the Cardinals may not have enough offensive firepower to make up for the star sophomore.
Wake Forest @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 34
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 24
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 59
Win Probability (S&P+) - 60%
My Prediction - Louisville by 5
The middle stretch of games for the Cardinals won't be easy, and Wake Forest will present their own challenges. For one, Louisville will have to contain wide receiver Greg Dortch and running back Matt Colburn. One question mark Wake does have will be at quarterback which is something fans will want to keep an eye on. At this point in the season I am expecting Louisville's young defense will start to form a solid identity and gain enough experience to contain the Demon Deacon offense just enough for another nail-biter.
Louisville @ Clemson
Projected S&P+ Rank - 3
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 26
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 1
Win Probability (S&P+) - 14%
My Prediction - Clemson by 12
I'd love to say Louisville can win this game, but Clemson is just so talented. In fact, I think Clemson will be better than the Crimson Tide are in 2018. Still, I think Louisville keeps this game somewhat close. In the end, expect Clemson's defensive line to assert their dominance over the talented Cardinal offensive line and Clemson's playmakers to take advantage of a defense still in somewhat of a rebuilding/rebranding phase. This may be a frustrating game for Cardinal fans to watch yet again, but keep in mind that Clemson is no ordinary team. They are a tier 1 program of college football and that means that beating them is no easy task.
Louisville @ Syracuse
Projected S&P+ Rank - 71
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 56
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 82
Win Probability (S&P+) - 66%
My Prediction - Louisville by 25
Last year at home, Louisville laid an impressive 56-10 loss in the laps of Syracuse and while I don't think a margin of victory of quite that much is in store for 2018, a decisive victory still likely is. Eric Dungey, who passed for almost 2,500 yards in 2017, is likely Syracuse's best chance at keeping the game close but with a subpar supporting cast and a defense that isn't expected to be very good, Louisville should be able to handle the Orange without much of a problem at all.
North Carolina State @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 37
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 14
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 83
Win Probability (S&P+) - 60%
My Prediction - Louisville by 10
Gone are the days of Nyheim Hines, Jaylen Samuels, Kentavius Street and Bradley Chubb, although Ryan Finley's return means the Wolfpack may have the best quarterback in the ACC in 2018. Despite losing such talented players from their 2017 squad, NC State has been recruiting at a very high level and will likely have no shortage for talent this year. Still, NC State's defense will have quite an uphill battle if they were to try to topple the Cardinals at home.
Kentucky @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 64
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 79
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 50
Win Probability (S&P+) - 72%
My Prediction - Louisville by 18
The Cards made things look easy in Lexington last year to the tune of a 44-17 victory over the Wildcats but 2018 holds a large degree of uncertainty for both teams. Kentucky will almost certainly rely on bellcow running back Benny Snell for the majority of the offense with the quarterback situation being completely up in the air and a subpar wide receiver group. Kentucky's defense looks to be a somewhat formidable unit in 2018 but the home field advantage for the Cardinals should be enough to allow Louisville to cruise to a victory.
Final predicted record: 9-3
GoCards.com
Chris Person • CardinalSports.com@RivalsChris
With the departure of Lamar Jackson along with a slew of veteran contributors, national pundits have pegged Louisville as a team that will be rebuilding in 2018. Regardless of the national perception, the Cardinals return a significant amount of talent and may have one of the deepest teams they have ever fielded. As the opening game against Alabama inches closer, we take a look at each game to see what is in store for Louisville and try to predict what the 2018 season will look like.
Louisville Projected S&P+ Rank - 29
Louisville Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 5
Louisville Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank -98
Louisville vs. Alabama
Projected S&P+ Rank - 2
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 12
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 2
Win Probability (S&P+) - 15%
My Prediction: Alabama by 15
Most people nationally have Bama big in this game but I'm just not buying it. Alabama is stacked at every position from a talent perspective but the quarterback controversy, lack of returning defensive experience, and injuries have made it where the Crimson Tide may not be quite to the level they were in 2017. Specifically, Alabama's secondary appears to be somewhat of a weakness (compared to the rest of the team) and something Louisville's passing attack may be able to take advantage of. Still, Alabama's offensive line and running game looks to be a strength this year and with Louisville's inexperience at defensive line, Alabama may be able to just grind the Cardinals on the ground the whole game.
Indiana State @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - NR
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - NR
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - NR
Win Probability (S&P+) - 100%
My Prediction - Louisville by 48
Louisville will open their 2018 home schedule and break in the new stadium expansion with an easy win against Indiana St. This will be one of the games that the Cardinals will likely see at least Malik Cunningham get some playing time as well as possibly Jordan Travis.
Western Kentucky @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 90
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 100
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 73
Win Probability (S&P+) - 83%
My Prediction - Louisville by 30
Western Kentucky was not very good in 2017 and they will be young and inexperienced in 2018 which makes for what should be a pretty easy home win for the Cardinals. Much like Indiana St., I'd look for Louisville's backup QB's to get plenty of playing time.
Louisville @ Virginia
Projected S&P+ Rank - 73
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 108
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 32
Win Probability (S&P+) - 67%
My Prediction - Louisville by 9
Louisville will likely be coming into the Virginia game 2-1 and while at first glance, the Hoos wouldn't appear to be much of a concern, this first true road game of the year may yield some problems. First and foremost, Virginia's defense (particular the linebackers and defensive backs) looks to be quite formidable. Another aspect that may make things a little more difficult for the Cardinals is that Virginia will likely be starting JUCO QB Bryce Perkins, a dual threat QB that is quite athletic. This could test a young Louisville defense and therefore keep this game fairly competitive. Still, Louisville's offensive line and running game should be able to lead the Cardinals to a victory, albeit possibly too close for comfort.
Florida State @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 18
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 31
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 23
Win Probability (S&P+) - 49%
My Prediction - Louisville by 4
This should be an incredibly fun game for fans at Cardinal Stadium. Florida St. has the talent all over the field to be a problem for opponents, particular with returning RB Cam Akers leading a star studded offense. While I think it's safe to say FSU's talent is greater than Louisville's, the Cardinals will have the help of it being a home game. Another factor that I'm really curious about is Willie Taggart. I know the buzz out of Oregon was that Taggart leaving was not something people were unhappy about. In fact, most seemed like they wanted that to happen. Yes, sour grapes are definitely a factor, but there appeared to be at least some legitimacy to their claims. I'm not entirely sure just how good Taggart is as a coach and because of that, I think Louisville has a good chance to beat the Seminoles again in 2018.
Georgia Tech @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 53
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 40
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 65
Win Probability (S&P+) - 68%
My Prediction - Louisville by 3
This game likely won't be very fun to watch. Louisville's still fairly inexperienced defense will be tested with the spread option of coach Paul Johnson's offense. I don't think there is any doubt that Louisville's talent is superior to that of Tech's, but preparing for such a different offense is a monumental task that focuses around discipline and communication. Will the Cards defense be up to the challenge? I think they will, but that doesn't mean this game will be an easy one.
Louisville @ Boston College
Projected S&P+ Rank - 48
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 82
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 37
Win Probability (S&P+) - 56%
My Prediction - Boston College by 8
After a great start to the year, I think Louisville's trip to Boston College could ultimately result in a loss. Sophomore running back AJ Dillon is an absolute monster and the 245lbs back isn't the only young Boston College player on offense to be on the lookout for. Sophomores to-be Anthony Johnson and Kobay White are both up and coming players for BC at both quarterback and wide receiver after leading the team at their particular positions during their freshman year. On the other side, Louisville's offense shouldn't have too much problem moving the ball against the Boston College defense, but assuming Dillon controls the game on the ground like I expect he may, the Cardinals may not have enough offensive firepower to make up for the star sophomore.
Wake Forest @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 34
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 24
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 59
Win Probability (S&P+) - 60%
My Prediction - Louisville by 5
The middle stretch of games for the Cardinals won't be easy, and Wake Forest will present their own challenges. For one, Louisville will have to contain wide receiver Greg Dortch and running back Matt Colburn. One question mark Wake does have will be at quarterback which is something fans will want to keep an eye on. At this point in the season I am expecting Louisville's young defense will start to form a solid identity and gain enough experience to contain the Demon Deacon offense just enough for another nail-biter.
Louisville @ Clemson
Projected S&P+ Rank - 3
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 26
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 1
Win Probability (S&P+) - 14%
My Prediction - Clemson by 12
I'd love to say Louisville can win this game, but Clemson is just so talented. In fact, I think Clemson will be better than the Crimson Tide are in 2018. Still, I think Louisville keeps this game somewhat close. In the end, expect Clemson's defensive line to assert their dominance over the talented Cardinal offensive line and Clemson's playmakers to take advantage of a defense still in somewhat of a rebuilding/rebranding phase. This may be a frustrating game for Cardinal fans to watch yet again, but keep in mind that Clemson is no ordinary team. They are a tier 1 program of college football and that means that beating them is no easy task.
Louisville @ Syracuse
Projected S&P+ Rank - 71
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 56
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 82
Win Probability (S&P+) - 66%
My Prediction - Louisville by 25
Last year at home, Louisville laid an impressive 56-10 loss in the laps of Syracuse and while I don't think a margin of victory of quite that much is in store for 2018, a decisive victory still likely is. Eric Dungey, who passed for almost 2,500 yards in 2017, is likely Syracuse's best chance at keeping the game close but with a subpar supporting cast and a defense that isn't expected to be very good, Louisville should be able to handle the Orange without much of a problem at all.
North Carolina State @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 37
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 14
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 83
Win Probability (S&P+) - 60%
My Prediction - Louisville by 10
Gone are the days of Nyheim Hines, Jaylen Samuels, Kentavius Street and Bradley Chubb, although Ryan Finley's return means the Wolfpack may have the best quarterback in the ACC in 2018. Despite losing such talented players from their 2017 squad, NC State has been recruiting at a very high level and will likely have no shortage for talent this year. Still, NC State's defense will have quite an uphill battle if they were to try to topple the Cardinals at home.
Kentucky @ Louisville
Projected S&P+ Rank - 64
Projected Offensive S&P+ Rank - 79
Projected Defensive S&P+ Rank - 50
Win Probability (S&P+) - 72%
My Prediction - Louisville by 18
The Cards made things look easy in Lexington last year to the tune of a 44-17 victory over the Wildcats but 2018 holds a large degree of uncertainty for both teams. Kentucky will almost certainly rely on bellcow running back Benny Snell for the majority of the offense with the quarterback situation being completely up in the air and a subpar wide receiver group. Kentucky's defense looks to be a somewhat formidable unit in 2018 but the home field advantage for the Cardinals should be enough to allow Louisville to cruise to a victory.
Final predicted record: 9-3
