Actually I’m a little more concerned with the Bama run defense. So far the run defense has not been strong, especially up the middle. I don’t know much about the Ga run game, but the first order of business for the Bama defense is to be strong against the run and force Beck to throw. At that point I think Bama has the advantage. Force Beck to carry the team and see if he crumbles.
| FTBL Game Week: Alabama vs. Georgia (press conferences, news updates, and discussion)
- Thread starter BamaFan334
- Start date
My logic is simple. A mature system under the same scheme results in players having stacked up more muscle memory. This results in players playing and executing naturally and sustaining from year to year.
Now with what CKD inherited maybe that timeline is accelerated. I sure hope so and I hope come late Saturday night I am on here saying you were right.
My biggest concern also. That and penalties/turnovers.
BamaFan334
Member
Etienne hasn't looked what they thought/wanted. Nate Frazier from Mater Dei looks like their best back. Played well against Clemson and has that fire.
BamaFan334
Member
If they don't have Williams, their defense will come into the game with one leg.
AirForceBamaFan
Member
I think there's a few parallels with this matchup and the matchup with Michigan in the semi's last season in the sense that I think people are probably discounting UGA's QB play and overall defense a little too much. I was one of the ones who miscalculated both on Michigan, to a degree. But it feels like that same thing is happening here with this game (and I'm talking overall, not this specific thread or even this board). Alabama may win this game by 28+ for all I know, but IMO there's some graveyard walkin' going on by some Bama fans... a theme I've been sensing in general (again, not confined to this board) since the win over Wisconsin and UGA struggling with the Wildcats 2 weeks ago. This UGA squad lacks some of the playmakers from a year or two ago, but they still have a roster filled with top end talent, including a QB who will be one of, if not the, first off the board in the draft this spring.
That said... I can also understand the confidence people have in Alabama. As of today, my confidence is higher (pretty significantly at that) than it was just a week ago, though I can see this game going either way. One thing I'm pretty certain of however, is that at the end of the year, this Alabama squad will be the better team of the two. And I've seen concerns out there from a few that DeBoer hasn't faced a UGA/Kirby team, which will be his toughest test to date. While probably true, he has faced the closest thing to Kirby in Dan Lanning (yes, he's closer to Kirby 2.0 than Saban is) on 3 occasions in the last 2 seasons... and I can tell you Lanning and Kirby have talked about how to defend DeBoer's offense, but considering DeBoer was 3-0 against Lanning in those meetings, I'm not sure how helpful the talks were... UW averaged 473 yards and 36 points in those games. Another comforting data point: DeBoer is 12-2 against ranked opponents in his career. That's a Saban level win %. Compare it to a guy like Kiffin if you want to see just how impressive that is. Bottom line, there's a lot to like about Bama's chances in this game, even before you get down to some of the individual matchups. While I can see a scenario where it plays out like the 2020 regular season game with UGA, IMO, it's much more likely to be a full 4 quarter slugfest.
One last thing, re: Milroe... This is a game that can really solidify his status as a top 3 QB in CFB if he goes out and performs well. It's likely the furthest thing from his mind right now, but this is a $ game that will answer some questions about his trajectory and potential for many scouts in attendance. A Bama win on Saturday night, and they are no lower than #2 in the polls, and could possible grab the #1 spot depending on how things shake out. I think both of these teams are playoff bound though (and possible SECCG bound), so like 2021, it may just end up being the first battle of the war.
That said... I can also understand the confidence people have in Alabama. As of today, my confidence is higher (pretty significantly at that) than it was just a week ago, though I can see this game going either way. One thing I'm pretty certain of however, is that at the end of the year, this Alabama squad will be the better team of the two. And I've seen concerns out there from a few that DeBoer hasn't faced a UGA/Kirby team, which will be his toughest test to date. While probably true, he has faced the closest thing to Kirby in Dan Lanning (yes, he's closer to Kirby 2.0 than Saban is) on 3 occasions in the last 2 seasons... and I can tell you Lanning and Kirby have talked about how to defend DeBoer's offense, but considering DeBoer was 3-0 against Lanning in those meetings, I'm not sure how helpful the talks were... UW averaged 473 yards and 36 points in those games. Another comforting data point: DeBoer is 12-2 against ranked opponents in his career. That's a Saban level win %. Compare it to a guy like Kiffin if you want to see just how impressive that is. Bottom line, there's a lot to like about Bama's chances in this game, even before you get down to some of the individual matchups. While I can see a scenario where it plays out like the 2020 regular season game with UGA, IMO, it's much more likely to be a full 4 quarter slugfest.
One last thing, re: Milroe... This is a game that can really solidify his status as a top 3 QB in CFB if he goes out and performs well. It's likely the furthest thing from his mind right now, but this is a $ game that will answer some questions about his trajectory and potential for many scouts in attendance. A Bama win on Saturday night, and they are no lower than #2 in the polls, and could possible grab the #1 spot depending on how things shake out. I think both of these teams are playoff bound though (and possible SECCG bound), so like 2021, it may just end up being the first battle of the war.
Their last regular season loss was to Florida in 2020. They've lost to Bama twice since, but both were in the SECCG.
bamafan9201
Member
I have heard a lot of talk on here of how Michigan put pressure on Bama with blitzes and top end DL play from everyone, I get that it's possible with blitzes and pressures they can put Milroe in a tough situation. There's a reason Kirby didn't do this last year in the SEC Championship game, if they don't get home, Bama's going to create an explosive play and if they don't mush rush Milroe will gash them.
It worked for Michigan because they had elite DL pressure up the middle and we had subpar OL play and terrible snaps that cost us timing on routes, reads, and handoffs (Multiple times). I don't really see that being a factor in this game considering the issues have dissipated on the snaps and the OL is a strength for this team IMO.
Also, one thing to remember is that DeBoer's system LOVES the screen game, blitzing tends to get you burned in the screen game so I kinda feel what worked against Saban won't really work against this offense. Elite pass rushing is what hurts this offense, something Georgia seems to lack at least this year.
I don't discount what you're saying about the rest of it though, just that I've heard this narrative of "If they just blitz us like Michigan" all week from here and other places too. There's a possibility here we win by 1 point or 28+ it's just the nature of the beast in big games if we don't turn it over and can move the ball on explosive plays. I can tell you one thing, Kirby will try to shorten this game. There will be a ton of running on 1st and 2nd for them and they will hope their defense can hold and the clock keeps running. Last thing he wants is to give us extra possessions or more possessions.
Sorry this turned out a rant, not directed directly at you, but in general with some of the downers around here. There's optimism here!
You're looking a little deeper into the comparison than what I was aiming for... I'm talking in terms of how the teams are viewed by some of our fans and that there's some similarities in how they are built, with some of the strengths and weaknesses. UGA is hampered by injuries on both lines, but both are still strong. DB's and LB's are really good. Defense overall is sound and physical. QB is (IMO) underrated by many, but a guy that can hurt you and doesn't really hurt himself. When you delve into scheme, strategy, etc... it gets muddier... but the point I was attempting to make is more (all, really) personnel based. UGA isn't the monster on paper that they have been in recent years, and they may not be the monster on turf either... too early in the season to say, but they are still well coached and built to win. They have the guys. This will be a difficult matchup, IMO.
Justneedme81
Member
We will get their best.
Brandon said it'll be close game to the 4th.. I agree. I think Alabama pulls out because we don't have injuries and they do, and I think it hurts them later in the game.
I think I've made a comment somewhere how UGA is now going through what Bama went through in recent years. They haven't lost regular season since 2020, so the pressure is there for UGA more than Alabama. At some point, they will crack. It's matter of when. The DUI arrests, injuries, etc. that's lot of distractions going on in Georgia. Beck is very good QB, just not consistent. You don't know which one we'll get.
Brandon said it'll be close game to the 4th.. I agree. I think Alabama pulls out because we don't have injuries and they do, and I think it hurts them later in the game.
bamafan9201
Member
Justneedme81
Member
A couple of books I've seen have Bama -1 at this point, MGM being one. Big money being put on Bama late, IMO.
bamafan9201
Member
Moved to -.5 at this point it's pretty much trending towards a pickem
BamaFan334
Member
I made a larger wager on us +1.5 when I saw it earlier this week.
