Valadao will win, and there are five other races outside of CA that will go to republicans. Current NYT count has Reps up 214 to 203. That leaves 18 unannounced. Dems would have to win 15 of the 18 to get the House. I just don't see it happening.
As far as nothing getting done, even if the Dems turn the House, the Executive Orders will flow, just as they did - but better - in Trump's first term, and they will reverse the aggressive progressive actions Biden put into place.