| FTBL The reality of the situation...

[Guest]

I am officially done with BamaMag, so RTB will be my full time home from now on. Hopefully the issues that caused my defection will not happen here. I am a full time seminary student so I don't have a lot of time for the kind of stuff that was going on over there...

That said, I thought I would port a recent post I made over here. Given the game today, I think it is prudent to revisit it...

A closer examination brings a number of things into focus that Saban will not and cannot comment on. A coach cannot say "we do not have the talent we need to compete." That sort of comment creates a self fulfilling prophecy - your players will play to the level that they are perceived to be, rather than exceeding their potential.

The reality is that even though players can play beyond their ability (and below it), most of the time the better players win the game. People can argue all day long about the validity of star ratings and recruiting rankings, but the reality is - most of the time it is accurate. Sure there are occasional 2 star Demeco's and 5 star Billy Rays, but that is not normative.

In order to examine how we compare to the two teams we have lost to, it is prudent to examine at least the past 4 classes. I am not going to look at the 5th class (redshirt freshmen) because it is not usually that relevant to a senior class.

As a basis for comparison, lets look at Bama's last 4 recruiting classes. We are supposed to have more talent on offense...Shula allegedly recruited better on offense and we have more experience there.

2004 Bama had 28 commits with an average rating of 2.61, placing us 19th according to scout network.
2005 Bama had 30 commits with an average rating of 2.83, placing us 16th.
2006 Bama had 23 with an average of 3.3, placing us 18th.
2007 Bama had 24 with an average of 3.08, placing us 22nd.

Now looking at the impact those four classes are on our depth chart we see that our best players on offense (according to who is starting) are:

POS ## OFFENSE

LT 71 Andre Smith *****
LG 50 Justin Britt ***(DT)
C 59 A. Caldwell **
RG 76 Marlon Davis ***
RT 78 Mike Johnson **
TE 88 Nick Walker **
QB 14 Wilson ***
RB 29 Terry Grant ***
TE 83 Travis McCall ***
WR 22 DJ Hall **
WR 80 Mike McCoy ***

Our average rating on offense right now is 2.82.
Don't get me wrong, I am glad our guys chose Crimson, but 2.82 would have placed 28th
in 2007. I know that player development and conditioning is an integral part of the equation, however those things were
deficient under CMS so if anything the 2.82 regressed. Six months is not long enough to undo 4 years of habits.



Now lets look at UGA's recruiting.

2004 UGA signed 19 players with an average rating of 3.32, good enough for 6th in the nation.
2005 UGA signed 19 players with an average rating of 3.84, good enough for 4th in the nation.
2006 UGA had 27 commits with an average of 3.63, good enough for 4th.
2007 UGA had 23 with an average of 3.39, and slipped to 17th.


FSU:

2004 FSU had 26 with an average of 3.23 and ranked 4th.
2005 FSU had 22 with an average of 3.82 and ranked 3rd.
2006 FSU had 31 at 3.26 and ranked 12th.
2007 FSU had 20 at 3.15 and dropped to 33rd.

It is worth noting that even on their worst year, FSU had a 3.15 average - better than all but one of our last four classes.

Florida State's offensive participation breaks down like this:

POS ## OFFENSE

WR 81 Fagg, D **** (5th year senior)
LT 76 Rose, D ****
LG 62 Hudson. R *** (we missed on him) - Frosh
C 60 McMahon, R *** RFr
RG 73 Boatman, S ****
RT 79 Overmyer, D *** (5th year senior)
TE 87 Piurowski, C ****
WR 9 Goodman, R ***
QB 11 Weatherford, D **** (Replaced by ***** Xavier Lee)
FB 35 Sims, M ****
TB 6 Smith, A *****

That is an average rating of 3.83 - over a full point higher than us and as high or higher at every position except LT. In addition, most of the key FSU players either redshirted or are upper classmen. Case in point is Antone Smith, the #1 ranked RB in the nation in 2005 - who did not start until this season and was actually 3rd on the depth chart!

Folks, the REALITY is, the talent level is not even close to where it needs to be for us to compete for championships. Coaching, determination, and a will to win will make us into a good team, but we do not have the pieces for a great team. To anyone with a trained eye (or even untrained but paying attention) the difference in size and speed between us and UGA and FSU was obvious. We are not physical - not because of lack of guts or willpower, but because of lack of ability. Saban knows this and he will take steps to fix it - but it will take time.

 

[Crimson&WhiteGecko]

Great break down of the numbers & great post...

You're more than welcome here!

RTR!!!

 

[bamafan850]

It takes great players + a great coach. Just look at Bama's 92 NC. Bill Curry had the players but it took Gene Stallings to coach them to a NC. I am in total agreement that the top players have to be there, but it also takes a great coach to lead them to success.

BTW, welcome and glad you are here.

 

[Guest]

It takes great players + a great coach. Just look at Bama's 92 NC. Bill Curry had the players but it took Gene Stallings to coach them to a NC. I am in total agreement that the top players have to be there, but it also takes a great coach to lead them to success.

BTW, welcome and glad you are here.

We have the coach, we just need to let him recruit.

It is worth noting that Houston's last 4 recruiting classes would average around a 2. I have not done a breakdown of their starting lineup...maybe later. It is getting late.

 

[Guest]

Great to have you back Big_Fan and great post.

 

[BamaFan425]

ROLL TIDE ROLL! Great post.

 

[BigAl]

Big_Fan you just proved what i already knew but couldnt prove. If i ever need a lawyer i'll make sure to hire you. Outstanding post. ;sal ;sal ;sal ;sal

 

[dscyoung]

I'm not altogether sure there is any 'reality' to the thread at all. you are making an assertion using a mathmatical formula which is fine; however, your original data is based on subjective evaluation by any number of scouts that work for Rivals or Scouts or any of the other HS athlete ranking groups.
That being said, I agree with you that there are some pieces that are not in place at this point but they may very well already be on campus or in this years group..

 

[RollllTide!]

Welcome back

Welcome back Big Fan.

One of my post back in January or February was "where is Big Fan".

Thanks for the breakdown. On another post we were trying to find out how many legacy players were recruited during the penalty years vs normal years. We didn't have the totals because we couldn't find out all the mommas and daddys of former players.

I believe it will be a higher percentage during those years.

 

[TerryP]

I'm not altogether sure there is any 'reality' to the thread at all. you are making an assertion using a mathmatical formula which is fine; however, your original data is based on subjective evaluation by any number of scouts that work for Rivals or Scouts or any of the other HS athlete ranking groups.
That being said, I agree with you that there are some pieces that are not in place at this point but they may very well already be on campus or in this years group..

There is one area you can look at the star rankings and they usually prove correct. When they were devised, it was the intent that the number of stars would signify when the players could compete at this level. As example, a 5 * like Andre should be able to contribute his 1st year without a red shirt. 4* as a red shirted frosh, 3* as a red shirted soph and on down the line. In those terms, the rankings are usually spot on.

The reality of our situation is we do have some good skill players on the field. However, we also have players that might start in the MAC or CUSA, but wouldn't be starting on a lot of the upper tier SEC teams.

 

[kudzu]

.

The reality of our situation is we do have some good skill players on the field. However, we also have players that might start in the MAC or CUSA, but wouldn't be starting on a lot of the upper tier SEC teams.

That's a stinging statement Terry but sometimes the truth hurts. I don't want to take anything away from our guys, I'm proud of them because they play for Bama,but bottom line is we are lacking in talent at some positions. It's disapointing but very true.

 

[Guest]

I tend to agree with most all said here. Thank you Big Fan for all the research! I gave myself a headache trying to figure out why we are in the position we find ourselves in based on our good recruiting the past few years. I was going strictly on memory without looking up hard facts.

I knew that we recruited "good" in Shula's last class or two. I remembered a top 20-top 25 ranking in those. I also remember a #1 (by many) O-line class in 2006 and a top 3-5 DB class as well. This brings me to 2 questions (one of which may have been touched on last night).

1. Did the stars and rankings mean nothing for either of these groups? This is not a top O-line in the STATE much less in the country or SEC. This is not a top DB corps either. Has there ever been a time when stars mean so little? I know we don't have 4 and 5 stars, but our solid 3's had a tough time with Houston's probable 1 and 2's.

2. Wasn't this the year that many picked to be OUR YEAR? Many of us knew '06 would be tough, but everyone was told just to wait for 2007. I'm assuming "they" were basing that on talent. I doubt it was for coaching. So, what has happened since then? We have a more seasoned and proven coach, a new staff and most of the same players. So, how did we go from OUR YEAR to what we're seeing now?

How can all of us be so fluid? ;scr

 

[bamafan850]

So, how did we go from OUR YEAR to what we're seeing now? ;scr

New system.

 

[TerryP]

.

The reality of our situation is we do have some good skill players on the field. However, we also have players that might start in the MAC or CUSA, but wouldn't be starting on a lot of the upper tier SEC teams.

That's a stinging statement Terry but sometimes the truth hurts. I don't want to take anything away from our guys, I'm proud of them because they play for Bama,but bottom line is we are lacking in talent at some positions. It's disapointing but very true.

I know, I don't like saying it. But, it's fact based. I mean, think about it. One of our leaders on defense right now is a transfer from MTSU. One of our starters on the OL is a transfer from UAB and used to be a DT. Motley is a hell of a player when you look at his potential. But, we are starting a red shirt frosh in one of the main positions on defense...a position you normally see a red shirted Jr or Sr doing well. The defense as a whole is playing a lot better than we expected. That credit goes to coaching more so than talent. When you think about it, about the only two players we'd see starting around the SEC are probably Simeon and Gilberry. AND, Gilberry was a crap shoot from the start where Shula actually pulled a sleeper out of the midst.

On offense, it's about the same situation. Andre's and DJ would likely start at a lot of schools, Andre definitely.

Our backfield?

Caldwell and Walker might start...depending on what school they were attending. We've seen just the kind of player Brown is...but, that's a story in itself better left alone until he's no longer with the team.

 

[Guest]

So, how did we go from OUR YEAR to what we're seeing now? ;scr

New system.

Uhhh, I just don't know. No offense 850 and maybe my lack of football knowledge will show here, but is that a cop-out? Is than an easy answer? That for me is a tough one.

I'm really not trying to look ignorant, but how long is it a new system? All year?

 

[bamafan850]

So, how did we go from OUR YEAR to what we're seeing now? ;scr

New system.

Uhhh, I just don't know. No offense 850 and maybe my lack of football knowledge will show here, but is that a cop-out? Is than an easy answer? That for me is a tough one.

I'm really not trying to look ignorant, but how long is it a new system? All year?

I think we are doing O.K. having a whole new program/system. I'm not the smartest person on football and new systems, but I believe it takes more than a year to be totally dominating. It seems to me that we are competing this year which is a big step foward. We have lost two games but we competed in those two games and (with the luck of the Irish) would have won them. Football is a game if inches, seconds and luck when you are on a competitive level. Maybe after the program/system gets going good we will not be competition for most teams, meaning we can just sit back and enjoy the game with our big lead.

 

[TerryP]

So, how did we go from OUR YEAR to what we're seeing now? ;scr

New system.

Uhhh, I just don't know. No offense 850 and maybe my lack of football knowledge will show here, but is that a cop-out? Is than an easy answer? That for me is a tough one.

I'm really not trying to look ignorant, but how long is it a new system? All year?

It's always a new system of sorts because they are constantly adding things. With Shula, his original playbook wasn't installed until most of the way through the 3rd season.

On defense, it'll probably be about the same length in time. Heck, the defensive playbook is already about as thick as a NY phone book.

Take the QB play as example. It certainly appears more time has been spent learning a new offense than the basics like mechanics.

 

[Guest]

A friend of mine is a former Bama QB. It is his opinion (and the opinion of many others who are 'in the know') that we do not have a single player who would have started on the 92D, and only a few who would have seen playing time on offense.

Andre Smith is the only player on our offense who would have been a sure fire starter...

 

[Crimson&WhiteGecko]

I would agree the new system does make a tremendous difference. The team hasn't had a full year to learn the system as well. Also, we haven't played cupcakes these past 4 weeks either...give some credit to who we've played.

Finally, this team is still feeling the effects of the probation, plain & simple.

CNS has this saying "It is what it is", but can we remember that?

 

[Crimson&WhiteGecko]

A friend of mine is a former Bama QB. It is his opinion (and the opinion of many others who are 'in the know') that we do not have a single player who would have started on the 92D, and only a few who would have seen playing time on offense.

:shock:

WOW!!! That does put some things in perspective doesn't it.