porkchop said:
Exiled, the thing with that IMHO, is that (1) a lot of people are dismissing the SOS issue alltogether. The only people addressing it (outside the SEC) are stating that the SOS's are similar and about even. Wisconsin is being labeled PSU's "Clemson win". (1) There's a lot of bias against Alabama. If there wasn't we wouldn't be flipping out about the possibility of PSU jumping us even if we're undefeated. (3) We're not LSU. Last year's LSU team (even though they lost twice) was still considered by many to be flat LOADED. Arguably the most talented team in the country. That makes them the attractive option. The SEC strength argument helped them a ton too. PSU is looked at as the attractive option this year, not BAMA.
There are a number of reasons that PSU jumping Bama is not likely.
If Bama goes undefeated, we will have beaten:
Top 10 UGA
SEC E Champ top 10
Top 15/20 LSU
The only win PSU has over a team currently ranked in the top 25, is a narrow win over an Ohio State team that USC blew out. Michigan State is the only top 25 team PSU has left, and they are a 2 loss team.
Our current schedule rank is 45 according to Sagarin. PSU is 64.
We will have finished the season with 13 wins against all FBS teams. Penn State at 12-0 will only have 11 wins over FBS teams.
Florida is being perceived as a juggernaut right now. If they beat UGA and win the east and we beat them, the perception of our team will skyrocket.
Honestly, PSU kind of resembles AU 2004 right now. They have blown a bunch of weak teams out of the water, and they played an out of conference team that is ranked 178 by Sagarin. That hurts them like Citadel hurt Auburn.
I just don't see any way that Bama goes undefeated and PSU jumps us. It is not justifiable - even if we will the rest of our games by 1 point each.
If PSU does not make the BCSCG, I think they will end up against USC in the Rose Bowl and get drilled...ending their chance of whining about being passed over.
Looking at PSU's schedule, I am surprised it is rated as highly as it is.
Coastal Carolina, Temple, Syracuse, Purdue, and Michigan combined have 6 wins over D1A teams.
Here are the records of the 4 worst FBS teams on PSU's schedule so far:
Michigan 2-6
Purdue 2-6
Temple 3-4
Syracuse 1-6
They have these left to play:
Iowa 4-3 (will probably finish with a losing record)
Indiana 3-5 (will have a losing record)
and Michigan State, who is 7-2.
Based on the caliber of their opposition, I just don't see it. We have played some teams with poor records as well, but Temple, Cuse, and a D1AA team trump what we got...and Michigan and Purdue are bad, no matter what their names are.
Of course, Michigan State could help us out and end the discussion. Given the teams that we both have left to play, there is just no way that PSU can jump us.
LSU + Auburn + Florida/UGA > Iowa + Indiana + Michigan State