Ok, there's just 2 weekends worth of games left... I admit the window for chaos is closing, but chaos doesn't give a shit about windows. Chaos arrives in the form of Ernest T. Bass, and he's right around the corner picking out a rock.
Let's look again, team by team, at the team's in front of Alabama... what they have ahead of them, and what could happen.
Before I go any further, some of this will be opinion based. Feel free to disagree in part or in whole, hold onto the receipts, and call me out if I'm ultimately wrong. Or, better yet, submit your own reply and give your reasoning for a different possible outcome(s). Either way, I'm ok with it.
Utah dropped out of the top 25, that hurts Oregon. LSU and Ole Miss both move up a spot respectively... helping both Alabama and Georgia. Of most significance, although not surprising, Washington and Florida State swapped spots. This matters because it shows that as this winds down, the committee will leap frog teams even when both won their respective games. That's a data point that bodes well for Alabama if the Tide can keep on winning...
1. Georgia- They end the season at Georgia Tech. They could play their backups all 4 quarters and win by 17. Then it's off to the friendly confines of Atlanta for a meeting with Alabama... more on that shortly, but obviously, if they win both games they are 100% into the playoffs and should be the #1 seed in that scenario.
2. Ohio State- They travel to Michigan on Saturday, the winner advances to the conference championship game against Iowa. I could see either team winning, and it doesn't really matter who... but the winner, barring a literal miracle, will walk into the playoffs after a win over the anemic Iowa Hawkeyes. The loser gets stabbed with a fork, especially if it's Michigan. [99% chance a playoff spot is taken by the Buckeyes or Wolverines]
3. Michigan- See above. One will advance, one is almost a lock to fall out of the top 4.
4. Washington- Washington hosts Washington State this weekend. About the only slight glimmer of hope for a UW loss here is that it's a rivalry game (where strange things can happen), but even then, it would likely take Penix getting hurt early and still some luck for the Cougars to pull it off. Washington will almost certainly win and play Oregon (again) in the conference championship game the following week. This is where it gets a little tricky... If UW were to beat Oregon again, a scenario I find unlikely, it would eliminate the Ducks and secure a top 4 spot for the Huskies. However, if the Ducks win their rematch, as I expect, it gives Oregon a much needed quality win and negates (to a degree) their earlier close loss to the same UW squad. This would put Oregon in a very strong position to steal the #4 seed spot in the playoffs.
5. Florida State- The Noles finish the season at Florida. Both teams are now down to their backup QB's, but I liked the Gators in this spot even before the injuries. Gainesville, at night, and UF needing that 6th win in a rivalry game with Napier's back against the wall? Give me the Gators in the upset. Maybe FSU still wins by 30, but I like the way this game has been setting up for the last month. If the Gators pull do off the win, the Noles are toast. However, if FSU can get it done, they'll go on to face Louisville in the conference championship. With Jordan Travis, I'd have the Noles there 7.5 times out of 10... without him, that game becomes much scarier for them. I think Louisville is stronger on paper than they are on the field, but they're still plenty good enough to beat a Travis-less FSU team. The Seminoles can't afford a loss in either game, but if they win both, I don't see how the committee leaves them out of the top 4, even though they'd get humiliated. My prediction, they drop 1 of the 2 games and don't get in.
6. Oregon- They wrap up the season at home against Oregon State. I don't see a great path for the Beavers to get the upset win here... Oregon's defense is better, their QB is better, and they're at home. Most likely, as mentioned above, this leads us back to an Oregon v. Washington rematch for the conference title where the loser leaves town.
7. Texas- Texas finishes up at home to Texas Tech. Seems like every game right now for the Longhorns is tricky, but they should handle Tech, especially at home. It is about time for another Ewers injury again though... just saying. The Longhorns would then play Oklahoma State (assuming they beat BYU*) for the conference championship. Who the hell knows what Cowboy team shows up... they have the ability to beat the Longhorns by 14 or lose to them by 48. Unlike 2 weeks ago, I don't have much confidence in Gundy and Oklahoma State tripping Texas up, but stranger things have happened. A Texas win would put them on the right side of the 4 team bubble, IMO. [*there are scenarios where Oklahoma or Kansas can get to the titl game too if Oklahoma State loses, and while that seems unlikely, this Jekyll and Hyde Cowboy team is capable of losing to or beating any team in that conference]
8. Alabama- Obviously, the Tide finishes the season at auburn on Saturday. Bama should win, and must win to stay alive for the playoffs. I still look at the SEC Championship as a de facto 1st round playoff game. If Alabama loses, they are out, everyone agrees there. But, if Alabama can beat Georgia, an undefeated team, 2x defending champions, and a squad that would be carrying a 29 game win streak on their shoulders... it would be, IMO, the most impressive win in college football all season. It would carry tremendous weight, and it would vault Alabama ahead of Georgia. But the question would be, to what spot? And, how far would UGA fall? Some of that, for both schools, would depend on how the game itself played out.
To wrap up, it's clear that Alabama must win out and even with that, to comfortably be in the top 4, they need some help. Best, reasonable case scenario... Ohio State beats Michigan, Michigan out/Ohio State in. FSU loses one of their next two games, FSU out. Washington beats Oregon, Washington in/Oregon out. Texas wins out, Texas in. Alabama beats auburn and Georgia, Alabama in/Georgia out. If it plays out like that...
#1 Ohio State
#2 Washington
#3 Texas
#4 Alabama
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#5 Georgia
#6 Michigan
Lastly, if Bama wins out, but they still end up with a log jam in front of them (Texas & FSU win out for example) and it becomes a real possibility that Alabama may not get in... I'll admit that the selection committee makes me a bit nervous with its ridiculous makeup of selected members. But, I'll also add that while Sankey ain't in the room, he's still the most powerful person in college athletics. To think his opinion of the matter (while looking at the possibility of the SEC getting shut out of the playoffs with the 2 best teams) won't hold weight with what ultimately happens in that room would be rather naive.
Let's look again, team by team, at the team's in front of Alabama... what they have ahead of them, and what could happen.
Before I go any further, some of this will be opinion based. Feel free to disagree in part or in whole, hold onto the receipts, and call me out if I'm ultimately wrong. Or, better yet, submit your own reply and give your reasoning for a different possible outcome(s). Either way, I'm ok with it.
Utah dropped out of the top 25, that hurts Oregon. LSU and Ole Miss both move up a spot respectively... helping both Alabama and Georgia. Of most significance, although not surprising, Washington and Florida State swapped spots. This matters because it shows that as this winds down, the committee will leap frog teams even when both won their respective games. That's a data point that bodes well for Alabama if the Tide can keep on winning...
1. Georgia- They end the season at Georgia Tech. They could play their backups all 4 quarters and win by 17. Then it's off to the friendly confines of Atlanta for a meeting with Alabama... more on that shortly, but obviously, if they win both games they are 100% into the playoffs and should be the #1 seed in that scenario.
2. Ohio State- They travel to Michigan on Saturday, the winner advances to the conference championship game against Iowa. I could see either team winning, and it doesn't really matter who... but the winner, barring a literal miracle, will walk into the playoffs after a win over the anemic Iowa Hawkeyes. The loser gets stabbed with a fork, especially if it's Michigan. [99% chance a playoff spot is taken by the Buckeyes or Wolverines]
3. Michigan- See above. One will advance, one is almost a lock to fall out of the top 4.
4. Washington- Washington hosts Washington State this weekend. About the only slight glimmer of hope for a UW loss here is that it's a rivalry game (where strange things can happen), but even then, it would likely take Penix getting hurt early and still some luck for the Cougars to pull it off. Washington will almost certainly win and play Oregon (again) in the conference championship game the following week. This is where it gets a little tricky... If UW were to beat Oregon again, a scenario I find unlikely, it would eliminate the Ducks and secure a top 4 spot for the Huskies. However, if the Ducks win their rematch, as I expect, it gives Oregon a much needed quality win and negates (to a degree) their earlier close loss to the same UW squad. This would put Oregon in a very strong position to steal the #4 seed spot in the playoffs.
5. Florida State- The Noles finish the season at Florida. Both teams are now down to their backup QB's, but I liked the Gators in this spot even before the injuries. Gainesville, at night, and UF needing that 6th win in a rivalry game with Napier's back against the wall? Give me the Gators in the upset. Maybe FSU still wins by 30, but I like the way this game has been setting up for the last month. If the Gators pull do off the win, the Noles are toast. However, if FSU can get it done, they'll go on to face Louisville in the conference championship. With Jordan Travis, I'd have the Noles there 7.5 times out of 10... without him, that game becomes much scarier for them. I think Louisville is stronger on paper than they are on the field, but they're still plenty good enough to beat a Travis-less FSU team. The Seminoles can't afford a loss in either game, but if they win both, I don't see how the committee leaves them out of the top 4, even though they'd get humiliated. My prediction, they drop 1 of the 2 games and don't get in.
6. Oregon- They wrap up the season at home against Oregon State. I don't see a great path for the Beavers to get the upset win here... Oregon's defense is better, their QB is better, and they're at home. Most likely, as mentioned above, this leads us back to an Oregon v. Washington rematch for the conference title where the loser leaves town.
7. Texas- Texas finishes up at home to Texas Tech. Seems like every game right now for the Longhorns is tricky, but they should handle Tech, especially at home. It is about time for another Ewers injury again though... just saying. The Longhorns would then play Oklahoma State (assuming they beat BYU*) for the conference championship. Who the hell knows what Cowboy team shows up... they have the ability to beat the Longhorns by 14 or lose to them by 48. Unlike 2 weeks ago, I don't have much confidence in Gundy and Oklahoma State tripping Texas up, but stranger things have happened. A Texas win would put them on the right side of the 4 team bubble, IMO. [*there are scenarios where Oklahoma or Kansas can get to the titl game too if Oklahoma State loses, and while that seems unlikely, this Jekyll and Hyde Cowboy team is capable of losing to or beating any team in that conference]
8. Alabama- Obviously, the Tide finishes the season at auburn on Saturday. Bama should win, and must win to stay alive for the playoffs. I still look at the SEC Championship as a de facto 1st round playoff game. If Alabama loses, they are out, everyone agrees there. But, if Alabama can beat Georgia, an undefeated team, 2x defending champions, and a squad that would be carrying a 29 game win streak on their shoulders... it would be, IMO, the most impressive win in college football all season. It would carry tremendous weight, and it would vault Alabama ahead of Georgia. But the question would be, to what spot? And, how far would UGA fall? Some of that, for both schools, would depend on how the game itself played out.
To wrap up, it's clear that Alabama must win out and even with that, to comfortably be in the top 4, they need some help. Best, reasonable case scenario... Ohio State beats Michigan, Michigan out/Ohio State in. FSU loses one of their next two games, FSU out. Washington beats Oregon, Washington in/Oregon out. Texas wins out, Texas in. Alabama beats auburn and Georgia, Alabama in/Georgia out. If it plays out like that...
#1 Ohio State
#2 Washington
#3 Texas
#4 Alabama
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#5 Georgia
#6 Michigan
Lastly, if Bama wins out, but they still end up with a log jam in front of them (Texas & FSU win out for example) and it becomes a real possibility that Alabama may not get in... I'll admit that the selection committee makes me a bit nervous with its ridiculous makeup of selected members. But, I'll also add that while Sankey ain't in the room, he's still the most powerful person in college athletics. To think his opinion of the matter (while looking at the possibility of the SEC getting shut out of the playoffs with the 2 best teams) won't hold weight with what ultimately happens in that room would be rather naive.
