I'm going to throw 3 more factors into how we get in.
1) Money
2) Politics
3) The future of the CFP.
And all 3 intertwine with one another.
ESPN is losing their shit. Ratings are WAY down because of the continual insertion of politics into their programming. This has a lot to do with the woes of the NFL. ESPN bit off more than they can chew when they contracted with the NFL. I read a stat somewhere that said that every network that carries NFL games is accumulatively set to LOSE about $200m-$500m in ad revenue, conservatively, because of the ratings tank.
However, the saving grace is that ESPN has a major contract with the CFP. Pretty much since year one of the CFP, there has been a push to add more teams. What GREATER way to push that over the edge this year than to add TWO TEAMS from the SEC in the top 4? Remember what pushed the playoff idea full steam ahead was the national "fallout" of 2 SEC teams making the top 2 in the BCS in 2011.
More CFP games = more money.
Add to that fact the ratings BOOST by having 2 SEC teams in the top 4. More money this year, plus more money down the road because this will be the powder keg they need to blow up the current 4-team model. Probably as soon as next year they will likely make it a top-6 with #1 and #2 getting a bye while 3-6 duke it out for the chance to play #1 and #2. Then adding 2 more teams the following year.
Plus, Jerry Palm is pretty reputable, and he has MULTIPLE scenarios where we get in this year.
College Football Playoff paths: Alabama has a chance, but does Ohio State? - CBSSports.com