I definitely think that Gruden is headed back to the coaching ranks, but I still see him as an NFL coach.
From what I hear, his wife is from Knoxville, and is actually the place in which they originally met. His first coaching gig was at UT as a Graduate Assistant. I don't REALLY know much about the situation, but IF (and that's a big IF) Gruden were to come to College Football, I think UT would probably be one of his top choices. They'd have to cough up some cheese, no doubt.
All of that to say this - I just don't see Gruden coaching in College Football...he seems like an NFL guy to me. And I certainly don't claim to be in the know with UT's financial situation, but I'm pretty sure that they're still paying Fulmer's buyout, and if they fire Dooley this year he has a $5 Million buyout...to put another $5 Million per year contract on the books would be a lot to ask...which is about the minimum it would take (atleast in my estimation) to get Gruden to even consider UT.