Some of the initial decisions to cancel events appeared to be out of step with early case numbers. Due to very limited testing, and due to the fact that a large portion of the population show no or limited symptoms, we'll never know how many are infected. Doctor's offices in Atlanta are inundated with patients with upper respiratory (not coronavirus) and flu symptoms (could be) clamoring for tests. Most offices won't test you unless you attest that you've been in contact with someone known to have the disease. I've got multiple employees with some symptoms who can't get tested, and others who've crossed paths with known cases who are self quarantining.
What's becoming quite clear is that the Chinese - surprise - radically suppressed actually infection and death rates, and even then they couldn't fully grasp total infections. Governments know this, and some of the more recent steps make more sense if you consider that aspect. Had I known this about China when the government cut flights to China in January, it would've made a bit more sense.
This is going to kill the economy. You can expect at least one of the major cruise lines to file, and probably one of the big airlines. Major flagged hotel chains are franchised, so their difficulties will be with the local owners and lenders, not Hilton or Marriott - although corporate earnings are shot for the year. Large annual events live from year to year. Missing a year could mean the end of the line, or a major pullback, for music, craft and trade festivals. You'll probably see some restaurants shuttered over this as well. NCAA Final Four is looking for a smaller Atlanta venue, don't want to pay for the Benz when no one will be there. This is perhaps the only silver lining from then entire thing. The NCAA should be ashamed of holding a basketball game in a football stadium - ants dribbling bb's - and I hope they get stuck for a little bit of dough for this. Hate it for the vendors, though.
Back to the airline and hotel industry, there is a fear in the industries that the forced reduction in travel, along with the resultant use of skype, MS Teams, adobe meeting, etc., that some companies will realize they can live without their prior level of travel. This could create a new normal for business travel well below the volumes of even a few months ago, perpetuating the travel glut. When this passes, it will be a great time to travel.
RTR,
Tim
