C
Christopher Smith
Oddsmakers, or "risk managers," have ironed out all the betting market inefficiencies that surrounded Alabama early in the season.
At one point this season, sportsbook employees and owners hated Alabama almost as much as Auburn does.
Typically one of the fastest-adjusting markets you'll find, oddsmakers could not fathom an Alabama with one of the nation's best passing games.
The Crimson Tide flattened Louisville, Arkansas State and Ole Miss by an average score of 57-9, costing sportsbooks hundreds of thousands of dollars in the process.
Oddsmakers kept inflating Alabama's betting lines, practically begging for money to come in against the Tide. Sportsbooks finally solved the equation against the spread thanks to a back-door cover by Texas A&M in the fourth quarter.
One offshore book then posted an opening line of Louisiana-Lafayette +53.5 against Alabama. That line screams "I don't care if we lose money on this game, but Alabama is not beating us again." Then the Tide inexplicably built a 56-0 lead before the Ragin' Cajuns got a pair of late scores against backups.
Alabama is 4-4 against the spread since its overwhelming start. Sportsbooks have been so precise in setting Alabama point spreads that six of those games have finished within one possession of the betting line (LSU and The Citadel were the two exceptions.)
Next, sportsbooks brought Alabama's rampant scoring into equilibrium. The game total, or over/under, gave bettors an edge in the first six games, with the over cashing five out of six times. (It took a minor miracle for the under to hit against Ole Miss. Alabama led 59-7 with 5:04 left in the third quarter against a closing number of 71, and the game produced just three more points.)
Betting the over has produced a 2-3 record in the last five games.
The final bastion was Alabama first quarter and first half spreads as well as Alabama's team total in the first quarter, first half and game. Not every sportsbook offers odds on things like first-quarter spreads or team totals. Before the Mississippi State game, that sequence was 38-6-1. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you crush sportsbooks.
That sequence finally failed against Mississippi State, and again Saturday. Or at least, it failed if you could find a sportsbook that offered it. Several books declined to even allow wagers on Alabama in the first half after it cashed in 10 consecutive games.
"Oddsmaker" is a colloquial term. There are very few true oddsmakers. Most in that position take the odds from a select few data providers and computer systems that service most of the world's sportsbooks. Others wait for the market to settle and then copy the lines found elsewhere.
The true, in-house job title for most oddsmakers is "risk manager." That is where sportsbooks truly excel.
The misconception is that sportsbooks set lines in order to get 50 percent action on each side. With the typical vig of -110, bettors need to risk $110 to win $100. At 50/50, sportsbooks automatically win, based on the vig alone.
But 50/50 action is somewhat of a unicorn. Sportsbooks almost always are sweating games just like bettors. As long as the liabilities are from square public bettors, which lose in the long term, sportsbooks are content. Most of the time risk managers just want to avoid posting a bad line on which sharp bettors can feast, often with large sums.
But occasionally, a team like Alabama does something so hard to process that it takes time to adjust. And then risk managers are intent on making sure that team does not continue to make the house bleed money.
At this point in the season, oddsmakers and risk managers have perfected Alabama lines, having obsessed over them during the middle of the schedule.
The Iron Bowl is a huge game, sure to draw a large betting handle across the world's sportsbooks. But at this point, it's hard to find an inefficiency in the marketplace, even with more exotic bet types.
If you want to avoid a coin flip, don't bet on this year's Iron Bowl.
Beware betting the Iron Bowl: Vegas has solved Bama
At one point this season, sportsbook employees and owners hated Alabama almost as much as Auburn does.
Typically one of the fastest-adjusting markets you'll find, oddsmakers could not fathom an Alabama with one of the nation's best passing games.
The Crimson Tide flattened Louisville, Arkansas State and Ole Miss by an average score of 57-9, costing sportsbooks hundreds of thousands of dollars in the process.
Oddsmakers kept inflating Alabama's betting lines, practically begging for money to come in against the Tide. Sportsbooks finally solved the equation against the spread thanks to a back-door cover by Texas A&M in the fourth quarter.
One offshore book then posted an opening line of Louisiana-Lafayette +53.5 against Alabama. That line screams "I don't care if we lose money on this game, but Alabama is not beating us again." Then the Tide inexplicably built a 56-0 lead before the Ragin' Cajuns got a pair of late scores against backups.
Alabama is 4-4 against the spread since its overwhelming start. Sportsbooks have been so precise in setting Alabama point spreads that six of those games have finished within one possession of the betting line (LSU and The Citadel were the two exceptions.)
Next, sportsbooks brought Alabama's rampant scoring into equilibrium. The game total, or over/under, gave bettors an edge in the first six games, with the over cashing five out of six times. (It took a minor miracle for the under to hit against Ole Miss. Alabama led 59-7 with 5:04 left in the third quarter against a closing number of 71, and the game produced just three more points.)
Betting the over has produced a 2-3 record in the last five games.
The final bastion was Alabama first quarter and first half spreads as well as Alabama's team total in the first quarter, first half and game. Not every sportsbook offers odds on things like first-quarter spreads or team totals. Before the Mississippi State game, that sequence was 38-6-1. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you crush sportsbooks.
That sequence finally failed against Mississippi State, and again Saturday. Or at least, it failed if you could find a sportsbook that offered it. Several books declined to even allow wagers on Alabama in the first half after it cashed in 10 consecutive games.
"Oddsmaker" is a colloquial term. There are very few true oddsmakers. Most in that position take the odds from a select few data providers and computer systems that service most of the world's sportsbooks. Others wait for the market to settle and then copy the lines found elsewhere.
The true, in-house job title for most oddsmakers is "risk manager." That is where sportsbooks truly excel.
The misconception is that sportsbooks set lines in order to get 50 percent action on each side. With the typical vig of -110, bettors need to risk $110 to win $100. At 50/50, sportsbooks automatically win, based on the vig alone.
But 50/50 action is somewhat of a unicorn. Sportsbooks almost always are sweating games just like bettors. As long as the liabilities are from square public bettors, which lose in the long term, sportsbooks are content. Most of the time risk managers just want to avoid posting a bad line on which sharp bettors can feast, often with large sums.
But occasionally, a team like Alabama does something so hard to process that it takes time to adjust. And then risk managers are intent on making sure that team does not continue to make the house bleed money.
At this point in the season, oddsmakers and risk managers have perfected Alabama lines, having obsessed over them during the middle of the schedule.
The Iron Bowl is a huge game, sure to draw a large betting handle across the world's sportsbooks. But at this point, it's hard to find an inefficiency in the marketplace, even with more exotic bet types.
If you want to avoid a coin flip, don't bet on this year's Iron Bowl.
Beware betting the Iron Bowl: Vegas has solved Bama
