🏈 Alabama opens as big favorite over Miss St

i don't think the actual score will be that by that much of a difference.

the lsu game was a hard-fought game, on both sides but both teams, and i know the guys will be a bit more sore than after games in previous weeks. i expect us to win, but not by 29.
 
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The Alabama Crimson Tide ( 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) remain the #1 team in the country and are a big NCAA football lines favorite again at Mississippi State ( 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS ) on Saturday, November 16, 2013. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45 ET from David Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS.

Watch and win on CBS as the Crimson Tide try to roll another SEC opponent.





NCAA Football Lines:

Alabama: -25.5

Total: OTB

Opening College Football Lines from Bookmaker

Alabama continues to roll and enters this SEC game with Mississippi State on a 4-0 SU/ATS run while beating each of their last three SEC opponents by at least 21 points including last week over a tough LSU team. While the NCAA football betting lines continue to be very high on #1 Alabama, they are difficult to stop with a defense performing so strong again and their balanced offense able to consistently move the ball and pile up points. Yet this is a definite letdown situation following last week’s rivalry game, and the combination of an inflated point spread makes it a wager worth making on Mississippi State.

Well aware Alabama is 17-7 ATS their last 24 SEC games and that Mississippi State’s defense has deficiencies. Alabama has performed its best in SEC games where they average 42 ppg, 509 ypg and a league-best 7.5 yards per play. Alabama leads the SEC in rushing with 7.5 ypr and just behind Auburn averaging 256 rushing ypg. Combined with a league-best rush defense allowing just 105 ypg and you can see why the ‘Tide rolls week after week and beats the closing NCAA football lines.

But Alabama has not been on the road in over a month when it went off the board as a 26-point favorite at Kentucky; the SECs worst team. So the value and situation supports Mississippi State, despite a league-worst pass defense allowing 287 passing ypg, 9.2 yards per pass attempt and 68% completions.

Last year Alabama beat Mississippi State 38-7 at home. Coach Dan Mullen is doing a very good job at Mississippi State and showed again last week in a 51-41 loss at Texas A&M that the Bulldog’s can compete with the league’s upper-tier as they out-gained the Aggies with a balanced 556 yards of offense. In SEC games, the Bulldog’s average over 200 rushing ypg and 250 passing ypg to make them even more attractive as a huge NCAA football lines underdog.

Alabama has played 4-straight games over the total and ‘Tide games have gone 7-1 over in their last eight SEC games. Plenty of points expected again but this time Mississippi State can score too and stay within the large impost.

Free Prediction: Despite Alabama’s dominance, they are still not as strong overall as last year’s team. In the tough SEC, even the top teams cannot sustain strong play week after week and this is a huge letdown situation at Mississippi State. Combined with the Bulldogs giving ‘Bama their best shot and a solid, balanced offense to move the ball better than most, the Bulldogs are Week 12’s big ‘Dog play.

College Football Week 12 Predictions, Alabama Vs Mississippi State Pick
 
The Alabama Crimson Tide ( 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) remain the #1 team in the country and are a big NCAA football lines favorite again at Mississippi State ( 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS ) on Saturday, November 16, 2013. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45 ET from David Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS.

not sure where they got their information, but the game is at 11:00 am in Tuscaloosa at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

and it's november 12th, NOT the 16th.
 
It was a quiet start to the week at practice today. Alabama was working in shells as preparation for Mississippi State began.

  • Did not see Alphonse Taylor during the viewing period. Saban said on Wednesday that he practiced some last week (we didn't see him last week either) so he might be somewhere else while we're outside but I didn't see him.

  • Reuben Foster had his left hand completely wrapped, club style. I don't know if it was actually a cast or just a whole bunch of wrapping on it, but he didn't have use of his left fingers. Dropped a ball in pass coverage drill, because obviously it's hard to hang on with just one hand. He laughed about it, though.

  • Damien remained the first team RB even as Bo Scarbrough has had a couple big games in recent weeks. Think Damien has shown he has the consistency they look for to be the first guy there.

Ben Jones
TideSports.com Editor
Practice notes: Nov. 7 | TideSports.com
 
CNS's press conference:11-7-16
  • No injury report given. Would assume they're pretty healthy with the possible exception of Shank, who didn't travel to LSU.

  • Talked about the big challenge this week being coming down from an emotional win on the road and re-focusing before a home game against a team that's playing well right now. Mississippi State probably did them a favor by beating Texas A&M on Saturday to get the players' attention.

  • A lot of talk about Ryan Anderson today, who was named SEC defensive player of the week. He's been one of the more consistent players on defense even though he hasn't regularly gotten the accolades of Jonathan Allen, Tim Williams or Reuben Foster.

  • Also had good things to say about Reuben Foster, Bradley Bozeman and Keaton Anderson (backup defensive player who has worked at S and LB, but contributes mainly on special teams).

  • Talked about Mississippi State's proficiency at QB run game and how it's always been a big part of their system, so Alabama has to be prepared to stuff it by doing the right thing technically. Mississippi State isn't going to make mistakes at it, so Alabama has to match that level of execution.

OPENING STATEMENT
Obviously the last game was a very physical, tough ... if you like old-fashioned football, I guess that's what it was. We obviously have a lot of work to do in some areas of our team. I think the biggest thing is we can't have any kind of relief syndrome after a big, emotional game, especially when you have a really good team coming up and a new challenge that we all need to respond to.

It's really great that the defense got recognized for defensive player of the week, which we did the same thing internally. JK Scott on special teams and Ryan Anderson on defense by the SEC.

We're excited to be back home and playing this game here at Bryant-Denny Stadium. I think it's always a challenge for us to respond in the right way. It's a different kind of team. They have played better and better each and every week. They're probably playing their best football of the season right now. Pretty obvious with their win over Texas A&M how good they are playing right now. Their quarterback has done a really good job for them all year long. He's kind of a center of what they do in terms of how much he runs the ball and his effectiveness as a runner, as well as being a very effective passer.

Fred Ross is a very good receiver and an outside threat that can create explosive plays for them. They've been able to run the ball effectively and defensively they create a lot of issues and problems in terms of negative plays and how aggressive they are, and they're very well coached and good special teams.

Dan has done a great job there for a lot of years. We've always had some really difficult games and that will be our expectation in this game.

How has pass coverage improved since the Arkansas game?
"It wasn't bad before the Arkansas game. We just didn't play very well in the Arkansas game, we didn't play very well in the Ole Miss game. The other games it's been fairly decent. I think there's always things that we can improve on. When you play a spread team it's an entirely different type of... whether it's RPOs that they throw, play-action passes that they throw that make it much more difficult to defend.

"It's a bit of a generalization just to say we played good in this game, we played bad in that game. I think that we all need to focus on what we need to do to improve. We'll be challenged in this game. When you play these kind of teams that have a lot of run-pass options, the key and responsibility on the perimeter is really critical to stopping the run as well as the pass. That will be a real challenge for us this week."

How would you evaluate special teams against LSU?
"We missed a field goal, but kickoff coverage and kickoff return are two areas that we need to do a little better job in. Our punt returns have been pretty consistent this year and the punt coverage has been pretty good. JK has done a good job. There's areas that are pretty god, and there's areas that we need to improve. The one kickoff return that got out to the 35-yard line, which we misfit the wedge. When I say there's things that we have to work on, there's things in special teams that fall into that category as well. Kickoffs and kickoff returns are two areas that we need to make improvement in."

Ryan Anderson seems a little overshadowed by guys like Tim and Jonathan but what has he brought to the team?
"Ryan has always been a really good player for us. He's recognized by the SEC as player of the week this week. First of all, he's a good leader. He's a smart player. He really plays his position well, whether we're playing regular or his role in nickel. He understands the pass coverage part of what we have to do. For an outside backer it's really critical to have some guys that can do that. His leadership, his pass rush ability, his ability to run. He's just a very, very good all around football player that has done a fantastic job for us."

What does it mean to have "hateful guys" on defense like you said on Saturday?
"To be a good competitor, you've got to have a little stuff in your neck, if you know what that means. I don't know if I have to explain that too. I hope not. That's what good defensive players are.

"When I was in Cleveland and we were getting ready for the draft, we got this great idea that we were going to hire this psychological guy to come in and give these guys a TAP test for their psychological disposition. The nine best defensive players in the draft that year had D TAPS. I looked at the guy and we said, 'What are we hiring these guys to do? We want them to be aggressive, we want them to be competitive, not in the real world but at least on the football field. These characteristics are important in defensive players. We're evaluating these guys as to what they're like on Sundays, which may not be the same.

"We want a guy that's going to go hit a guy that weighs 250 pounds running downhill as hard as he can hit him. Even though we have an expectation for our guys to represent themselves off the field in a first-class way, I think good defensive football players all have a competitive edge about them that requires a lot of mental toughness, a lot of physical toughness, and they've got to have a lot of resiliency. because sometimes you go in a guy under difficult circumstances. A difficult change occurs, whatever it might be. To respond the right way to those things takes the right kind of psychological disposition. I think we have a lot of guys on our defensive team that are very, very competitive."

Bradley Bozeman has been one of the more consistently highest rated offensive linemen for you this year...
"Where do you get this information from? I mean, do you get the grades every week or how do you know that he's the highest? I'm kind of anxious."

It's not our grades, it's somebody else's grades. I just wondered.
"Not to dispute what you say, he has been one of the highest graded players. I just wondered where you got your information. He's played very well. He's gotten better every week. It was very difficult last week, a lot of line calls and stuff we couldn't hear. Guys are trying to make line calls and we couldn't hear, which certainly can be a lesson to our fans in terms of how they can affect the game, because it affected us on some plays and creates some negative plays where we didn't always block the right guys. It was not a lack of communication, it was an inability to communicate because of the noise. Bradley's probably been the key reason that that has not been an issue for us because he's been doing a really good job not only of doing his job but helping everybody else do their job better."

You talk a lot about the competitiveness and the hunger to be a good defensive player. How have they done staying disciplined against teams like Mississippi State?
"This is a totally different sort of way you have to play. When you're playing a team that the quarterback can run the ball, it's almost like the old wildcat where you had a running back at quarterback except the running back can throw. Well, this guy can throw. These running quarterbacks that have a significant amount of quarterback runs create a whole different set of keys and responsibilities that take a tremendous amount of discipline as to who's closing on the dive, who has the quarterback? I think that is a real key to having a chance to be successful.

"These guys know what they're doing with it. Dan has done this for a long, long time all the way back to Tebow at Florida. It's not like they're going to mess it up. We have to make sure we do a good job of staying disciplined in terms of who has what. There's also a pass that goes with it most of the time, so some defender is going to have to be defending that part of it as well as the option part, whether it's the zone read or the read sweep or power, whatever they choose to run."

Is Reuben Foster really suited for the game today and the way offenses are going?
"First of all, Reuben plays well whether we're playing against a direct run team or a spread team. I think that there were guys in the past that would play better against direct run teams and struggle a little more when you got to the spread type teams because you have to play more effectively in space. Reuben just happens to be a guy that can do both of those things very well. C.J. Mosley was the same kind of player here. Does that mean that he's a more effective guy? Maybe more all-around, more versatile would be a better way to say it. But he's certainly done a really good job for us all year long in both scenarios of whatever we've played. He makes a lot of the calls and gets us in the right thing and has a really good understanding of football which helps him from a key and diagnose standpoint to really react quickly to what he has to do."

Where have you seen Anthony Averett progress the most since the start of the season?
"I think he's played well for us all year long and haven't given up a lot of plays. Plays smart. Keeps people cut off. Kind of silently goes about his business and does a really good job for us. We've been pleased with him all year long. His knowledge and experience certainly has been helpful to him and that's probably enhanced his ability to play with a little more consistency as we go along. We think he's really played well all year."

What kind of progression has Lester Cotton made this year fundamentally or technically?
"Well, I still think we have work to do in some areas of our team. I made mention of the fact that it was tough on the offensive line in some of the scenarios we had last week. That's something that we certainly need to work on and get fixed. Lester made steady improvement and we'd certainly like to see him play aggressive and physical all the time and finish and be more confident in what he's required and supposed to do but he has gotten better and better as the year has gone on."

How have you seen Tony Brown progress on and off the field to this point?
"He did a good job in the game this last week. Just have to work on his confidence and his consistency in what he's doing. Sometimes a little bit of technique would be helpful to him. The guy is a great competitor. He just has to channel his energy in the right direction, which he's made tremendous progress at. He's done well in school, kind of getting things right on and off the field and we're happy with the progress he's made and hopefully he'll continue to develop a better understanding of how when you're on a team, your role on the team affects everyone in terms of what you do so you can continue to be a good teammate to those you're playing with."

Keaton Anderson with some big tackles on special teams…
"He's done a fantastic job in that role. He's a very bright guy and when we're in our punt protection it takes a little bit of understanding from the PP. He is the quarterback of the group so whether they present an 8-man, 7-man, 6-man box, that determines what kind of protection we're going to have and who free releases as the flier and he's been one of the guys that has done extremely well in putting us in the right protection as well as improving the coverage pattern when we have the opportunity to do it. He's done a really, really good job. He's a good athlete and can run downfield so when we get him out fast it's like having another gunner out there."

How would you assess Minkah's game at safety?
"He did a good job. Minkah played well in the game and we're happy with the adjustments that he made. Didn't make a lot of mental errors. Really played well. And he's a bright guy that is a good competitor and really prepares well for a game. I think his disposition probably helped him be able to do that. We were certainly pleased with the way he played in the game."

How has this team distinguished itself with some of the players-only meetings or focus or accountability?
"I think that that's all determined by how you finish. I think that's determined by the entire body of work, because each week we have a little different challenge that presents us, whether it's playing at LSU last week in a very difficult environment or coming back home and playing against a very good Mississippi State team to be able to maintain and not be vulnerable to external factors, other things that make you understand that it's important every time you go out there, you're sort of making a statement about who you are and what you can do. To do that with consistency throughout the whole season is a challenge for every team. Some of our teams have done it well. Some not as well. They've done it so far but you have to sort of evaluate it on the total body of work when it's all said and done in terms of how they compete."

Ben Jones
TideSports.com Editor

Nick Saban press conference notes, transcript, video | TideSports.com
 
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