I watched a few Alabama games today: Ole Miss, LSU and Tennesse. I came away from watching Bama that Washington can potentially upset them. Bama's offense is pretty bad at throwing the ball because Hurts is really ineffective with his mechanics and accuracy. UW can make Bama one dimensional, Washington has 3 elite 3-4 DL men and the best secondary in the country. Bama's defense is very agressive and can be had on routes that force them to switch (wheel routes, zone busters etc). Short quick passing game off of play action was money for Ole Miss early in the game. RPOS looked actually quite effective against Bama's defense because the safeties and LBs overcommit so much because they trust someone to make a play if they can't . Everyone's explosives plays came off play action which speaks to how agressive they play. Alabama sells out to stop the run but if you spread them out you can get 3-4 yards and the occassional 10 yard pop. Bama's defense reminds me of the Seahawks without an elite safety or corner. I like UW's chances in this game esp. given that Pete has 1 month to prepare. If Washington can stay ahead of the chains and convert on third down i can see them scoring 17-20 points. Washington's defense has NFL talent at every postition except for the buck postition, Psalms Wooching who can abused on outside runs and QB scrambles/reads which is concerning. Joe Mathis and Azeem Victor may be able to come back for Washington in this game and they are elite at what they do. I also saw Bama has had 2 OL men go down which could end up being the difference in the game. If Washington can stay away from TOs and convert on third down; they can win this game.
Those are very lucid points to make and I respect the confidence you have in your team. So to your points... Ole Miss has had our number so to speak for the last few years though we won this year. They have an excellent QB and their team would have done much better overall if not for numerous injuries. Like Ole Miss, I also believe that Washington will be a very tough game for us in that it has a very good QB and a creative coach.
Our defense has evolved over the course of the year. We've played MANY spread offenses with RPOs as an integral part of their game plan. It's not uncommon for us to start slow and feel the other team out without any panic. The Tennessee game you mentioned was a beat-down and so was Auburn - that score could have been a lot worse. We also beat USC by 46 points, though admittedly, they are a much better team now and beat your team as evidence to that fact.
I can't agree with your comments about; elite talent, NFL talent at every position of the defense (except buck), and the best secondary in the country. We probably don't even have NFL talent at every position on defense and we have had the best recruiting classes for the past, oh I don't know, 150 years or so. Your team has not seen a defense like ours all year. Not even close. You've had some major blow-out victories against some pretty lame competition, with good teams sprinkled in here and there (USC, Stanford, Utah) during the season. You win against Colorado was impressive, but if I'm remembering correctly, their QB got hurt (like in the Michigan game) and they don't have much depth.
In my humble opinion, LSU, Florida, and Auburn would have fared close to as well as your team this year minus running up the scores (though Auburn probably would have done that also). Tennessee, A&M, and Ole Miss nose dived due to injuries, though that's part of the game. As I look at your results, the games that stand out to me are; Arizona, Utah, USC, and Colorado (before the QB injury - as I recall they lead in the 1st and had held you to 14 by half-time).
Regarding your coach's one month to prepare, remember, Saban will also have a month to prepare and he is quite good at that as well.
Still, you're a very, very good football team,and I can promise you that Coach Saban and our players will give your team its due respect as it prepares. My questions/concerns for this game are as follows:
- UW has an excellent turnover ratio. Can Bama minimize turnovers (espcially INTs) and create its own as we've grown accustomed?
- How will the UW offensive line fare against Allen, Tomlinson, Payne, Hand, Williams and Anderson? Can you also block Reuben Foster?
- Will the Bama secondary (with Eddie out and Marlon recovering) keep the UW passing attack under control?
- How will UW handle covering Ridley (who has been quiet this year), Stewart, and Howard with their "elite" secondary?
- How will that "NFL" D-Line of UW contain our running game?
- Will Bama's experience against RPO and spread offenses be able to match up favorably against UW's and what I expect to be some very Boise-esque play-calling. Admittedly, that has been a challenge for us.
At the end of the day, I expect a very, very tough game, and Washington will have its successes. But we will punch y'all in the mouth on every single play and you'll know you are playing Alabama. We'll see how close it is in the second half when we usually start to press on the opponent's throats. I would expect the score to be in the 30s or 40s for both teams with Bama prevailing in the end. But a tough game nonetheless.
