| FTBL Recruiting 2008: UA vs AU. The truth hurts...

TerryP

Staff
I found this on BOL a few days ago and looked for it again yesterday but couldn't remember who posted the thread. Luckily, surfing around a bit this morning I found it again on another site.

It's an interesting breakdown.

First of all, remember that all offers listed aren't all the offers a kid has. That being said, he usually lists his best offers. Therefore, just because Julio Jones only ended up with listed offers from Oklahoma, Florida, Florida State, and Texas Tech, you can safely assume that is because he turned down a litany of others. On the other hand, Drew Cole probably would have admitted that he had something more than a Mississippi State offer, if he had it.

Who did we battle most often in recruiting last year? We had 32 recruits, and we beat most often: Tennessee (16 of 32), Auburn (15 of 32), and Clemson (12 of 32).

The following AU recruits were listed as AU as their only BCS school offer: Raven Grey (resign), Jermaine Johnson (resign, didn't qualify), D'Antoine Hood, Vance Smith, Chris Todd, Ken Adams, Brandon Smith, Dex Dallenbach (the long snapper), Derrick Lykes, and Da'Shaun Barnes. Two others, Barrett Trotter and Spencer Pybus, listed Duke as their only other BCS conference offers...so count them where you will. Giving Duke credit as a BCS school, that means 10 of 32, or just over 31%, of Auburn's class listed AU as their only BCS school offer. Even if you count out the re-signs, exactly 25% of Auburn's class claimed AU as their only offer from a school in a BCS conference.

How about Alabama? Kerry Murphy and Jermaine Preyear listed Alabama as their only offer. Murphy, of course, was a resign. If we count him, 94% of our class had another BCS offer. Don't count him, and you can knock that up to 97%.

I don't know if I can do justice to the raw offer numbers. You'd have to see the spreadsheet for yourself to see exactly how bad this looks for AU compared to our class. The #1 thing that stands out is this: we didn't offer a single one of their commitments. Meanwhile, as earlier stated, they offered almost half our class.

But...on to the numbers.

First, the only one that looks mildly OK for AU:

TOTAL BCS SCHOOLS OFFERING AU RECRUITS: 32
TOTAL BCS SCHOOLS OFFERING UA RECRUITS: 40

Now...the one that looks reaaaaal bad for AU:

TOTAL BCS OFFERS FOR AU RECRUITS: 66 (2.28 per recruit)
TOTAL BCS OFFERS FOR UA RECRUITS: 147 (4.6 per recruit)

Over double. Ouch.

Who was Auburn's top competition? Tops was South Carolina. They beat the Gamecocks for 6 recruits. Next, we have a tie...they beat each of the following schools 4 times: Clemson, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Florida.

Truth. It hurts.

This is part 1, I'll keep my eye out for part 2...
 
you know i dont think alot of people realize the actual difference between the 2 classes (atleast i didnt). i knew we had a way better class than they did, but i didnt realize their recruits werent that highly touted.

terry, do you think it happens that way again this year? i was looking last night at last years class as far as the top 100 and i think we had 7. looking at this year, if we sign who we want i think it will be the same. correct me if im wrong...

dj fluker
dre kirkpatrick
tana patrick
aj mcarron
trent richardson
kendall kelley
nico johnson

i didnt count ryan m., didnt think we had much of a chance. am i missing someone?
 
I think there is a REAL good chance there is even a greater disparity in Feb. of '09 than this past Feb.

As a couple of examples, Rodney Scott (4* RB from FL) committed to Auburn early on but has basically decommitted from them. He's stated in the last few months that he's wanting to stay in his home state (FL) and is looking at USF and UF.

Terrance Coleman has begun to show signs of wavering and there is one other guy who I can't think of his name.

Right now AJ is rated at the 135th position in Rivals 250 but after his Elite 11 camp I suspect he'll get a bump and with a good season could likely pick up his 5th star.

Add to that, there are still a couple you haven't mentioned we are still in on...Ronnie Wingo Jr., being one, Demario Jefferey being another.

Then, there is always the chance Ming, Woodson, Fluker, etc. have a monster year and get bumped as well.

I've always said I didn't see a lot of difference between a #1 class and a #5 class. But, when you compare a #1 class to a #20 class there you see differences.

A reporter covering recruiting (can't remember which site it was) made the comment that with their 18th (maybe it was their 20th) they were now ranked at 15th BUT, and I quote "peaked at 15th." The article is up on he recruiting forum...I believe Porter started the thread.

Bottom line, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up in the top 5 and they end up between 25-30.

Found part two...it's coming.
 
PART 2

Alabama vs. Auburn Recruiting 2009: Truth It Hurts Part 2

A couple of assumptions before we begin:

1) Stars matter.
2) Offers matter.

And a couple of truths...

1) Alabama currently has 11 commits
2) Auburn has 20.

Now, here we go...

Number of BCS schools that have offered Alabama Commits: 27
Number of BCS schools that have offered Auburn Commits: 18

TOTAL BCS School Offers for AU's 20 Recruits: 35
TOTAL BCS School Offers for UA's 11 Recruits: 66

Number of AU recruits offered by Alabama: 2 of 20
Number of UA recruits offered by Auburn: 8 of 11

Number of AU recruits that have Auburn as their only BCS school offer: 8 - Jonathan Evans, Jamie Collins, LaDarius Perkins, Nick Fairley (resign, still a good player), Eltoro Freeman (same as Fairley), Wilfred Journet (another re-sign...was a low 3 star coming out of HS, Scout has him as 4...right), Aaron Moore (no other offers, BCS school or otherwise), Travante Stallworth
Number of UA Recruits that have Alabama as their only BCS offer: 0.

Percentage of Auburn's BCS school offers that comes soley from Mississippi State: over 22%

Percentage of Alabama's BCS school offers from schools that have won the national championship in the last 10 years: 33% (22 of 66)
Percentage of Auburn's BCS school offers from schools that have won the national championship in the last 10 years: 11% (4 of 35)
 
FWIW, the research was done by a law student at UA. He did a good job with it. I assume he'll do a wrap up after signing day. That one should be even more interesting, as the gaps will almost certainly be substantially greater.
 
All good stuff..........

I'm sure this point has been made but it bears repeating in this thread.

The past 10 years has been horrible for us for the obvious unhashed reasons that I will not get into.

Due to our issues at U of A.....the barn has succeeded on what would have normally been our athletes. Carnell was a Bama fan all his life. Kids like Swain a few years ago went to UT instead of staying home. Everyone has benefited from our debacle mainly the barn! I'll give it to Tubbs he recruited and coached well, but everyone including the goat humping cow turds in West Georgialabama know that their success come at the price of our beloved Crimson Tide.

You are seeing a shift in talent all headed to the west side of the state and we will begin our string of consecutive victories over the mighty Barn soon enough. I look for this year to go either way. Because the talent pool will be even for the next year or two. After next year we will start to see the disparity in talent between the two schools and we will be on top for some time to come. Mark it down the next 2 Iron Bowls will be the last two in which we won't know whether or not we will be favored. The only question will be by how much!!
 
I have always been a bit wary of Tuberville's recruiting classes because over the years he has displayed an eye for players that fit what he wanted to do, but weren't highly publicized recruits. Auburn in his earlier years did not publicize their recruiting much at all, but their classes spoke for themselves on the field. But things have changed. He used to go into the Mobile area and get whomever he wanted, battling not us, but LSU. Now that area has become Bama turf. The only meaningful player he's gotten a commitment from last class and this one had a brother who played there. He used to get a lot of players out of Florida, especially the Daytona Beach area, but the rise of USF and Central Florida has slowed that down a lot. And all of a sudden this year they are publicizing their recruiting like crazy, as they outduel UAB and Southern Miss for their prospects. They will be pretty good this year because their kids who are seniors, juniors and sophs were part of good classes. Starting with the freshmen who will be on the field this fall, though, they have fallen below the level they usually attain, and as mentioned above they really aren't doing very well at all now. Each year we should be getting better talent and depth wise, and each year they should slip. I really like this trend.
 
Just remember what I said about Tubby intentionally tanking the barn. It will be ugly unless he is gone next year. If he is there 3 more years, it will take them YEARS to rebuild.
 
Big_Fan said:
Just remember what I said about Tubby intentionally tanking the barn. It will be ugly unless he is gone next year. If he is there 3 more years, it will take them YEARS to rebuild.

That is a good conspiracy theory, but I think if we beat the Barn this year then next year will be Tubbs last. Once Tubby loses 2 years in a row to us that will mean that the Barn has fallen back into their "9 wins is a great season". and will most likely be 7 or 8 win season on a regular basis at that point. Saban will never have a winning record against Tubby because he will be gone after the second loss to us. Mark it down!!
 
Really nice write up by the Law Student. It makes it difficult for the barn fans to spin their way out of acknowledging that their recruiting classes are inferior.
 
LBS said:
It makes it difficult for the barn fans to spin their way out of acknowledging that their recruiting classes are inferior.

No it doesn't.

"We try to tell our fans. I’ll tell them that I’ll take a three-star every time over a four or five-star if he has good character and good athletic ability. The problem with all these services is that they rate players strictly on athletic ability. They don’t include a kid’s character or his work ethic, because they don’t know those things. A player has to have athletic ability — I’m not saying he doesn’t – but it’s important to have those other things." ---Tommy Tuberville at SEC Media Days---
 
Total kids who have committed to Bama or AU with written offers from both schools this year.....12

Saban 11

Tubby 2 (AU'S one signee is the nephew of a player already on AU'S roster)


Total kids who have committed to Bama or AU with written offers from both schools last year...17

Saban 17

Tubby 0

SO FAR IN THE LAST TWO RECRUITING CLASSES....29 players from the state of Alabama have committed to either Alabama or AU THAT HAD OFFERS on the table from both schools...

Saban 28

Tubby 2
 
Argo said:
"We try to tell our fans. I’ll tell them that I’ll take a three-star every time over a four or five-star if he has good character and good athletic ability. The problem with all these services is that they rate players strictly on athletic ability. They don’t include a kid’s character or his work ethic, because they don’t know those things. A player has to have athletic ability — I’m not saying he doesn’t – but it’s important to have those other things." ---Tommy Tuberville at SEC Media Days---

Well, I'm pleased to know that 9 of our 12 commitments for the '09 class have a good work ethic and good character then.
 
Porter said:
Argo said:
"We try to tell our fans. I’ll tell them that I’ll take a three-star every time over a four or five-star if he has good character and good athletic ability. The problem with all these services is that they rate players strictly on athletic ability. They don’t include a kid’s character or his work ethic, because they don’t know those things. A player has to have athletic ability — I’m not saying he doesn’t – but it’s important to have those other things." ---Tommy Tuberville at SEC Media Days---

Well, I'm pleased to know that 9 of our 12 commitments for the '09 class have a good work ethic and good character then.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
Also, it is funny that Tuberville would talk about work ethic being important, seeing as how Saban is kicking his ass on the recruiting trail because of his... work ethic.

If Tuberville really valued a strong work ethic, he wouldn't have supported the implementation of the "Saban Rule".
 
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