🏈 Rare expression of confidence from yours truly

[musso]

Just got to say, given the climate and landscape of the game, entering the second season of replacing the GOAT, the reunion of Grubb and DeBoer, I'm really excited about this season. Last season, I was probably more anxious than excited. But despite a challenging schedule this season, I feel more confident than I've felt in several seasons, because I sensed things slipping ever since Saban's loss to Georgia in the natty.

QB: Maybe Simpson lacks the ceiling or dynamism of any starting QB we've had since maybe Coaker, but I feel his floor will be higher than Milroe's was. And I expect him to exhibit the kind of consistency which is so critical to that position. I just have a good feeling for QBs who have patiently waited for their opportunity.

RB: I like our RB room as much as I've liked it since 2018's room consisting of Damian Harris, Jacobs, Najee, Robinson, Ford, etc. I'm not saying that we have the same elite talent, but I think we have broader, more top-to-bottom depth than we've had since 2018.

OL: I think we'll have the best starting group we've had in a while. Our OL was one of the positions that began to slip in Saban's final seasons, and this may be the best unit since 2020's Joe Moore unit. I'm not comfortable if we lose either starting OT, but I think we have adequate backups along the interior.

TE: Nothing spectacular here this season in my opinion, but I know the staff has been trying hard to upgrade this unit. I'm not in the loop, but I expect more blocking roles than receiving until our young talent matures in future seasons.

WR: Let's face it. It's been downhill ever since Tua's and Mack's targets left, since that was a historic collection of talent. But since those days, have we had a better WR 1-2-3 than Williams, Bernard, and Horton??? I say no. In fact, our last natty in 2020 probably a worse WR room than ours will be this season. I see this unit similar to our RB unit: better depth than we've had since Saban's best teams.

DL: another unit that suffered in Saban's latter seasons and will likely never return to Saban's best units due to NIL and the portal. But again, I think this year's unit will be the best group we've had in several years. I wish we had greater length and wingspan inside, but again compared to the last several seasons I'm not too worried. I'm a little nervous about the scheme's ability to stop a running attack using 22 or 12 personnel. But this isn't a discussion about scheme. I'm actually optimistic about the lesser known backups behind Keenan and Smith. And I'm even more excited about the Bandits and Wolves.

LB: I see it similar to our OTs: I'm happy as long as we don't lose any to injury. How can you not like our top 3 LBs all being 5th-year players???

DB: It's been surprising to me how much talent we've brought in after the mass exile which followed Saban's departure. So while we are still a bit young there's no room for complaining when you consider where we were after Saban's retirement. I personally felt Saban's ability to bring out the best in our DBs dropped off well before he retired. So while we may have always had adequate talent, I think our new staff is doing just as well with what they have, if not better.

I think from this point forward, losing a starter to injury will matter more than it used to matter. But this will be true across the board for all teams. But I really like what we have returning this season. So I felt obligated to share my rare optimism for any discussion.

 

[Justneedme81]

How many beer you had today?

 

[musso]

How many beer you had today?

I can't win. Here I am trying to grow beyond the boundaries of my Negative Nelly schtick ...

 

[sean]

I can't win. Here I am trying to grow beyond the boundaries of my Negative Nelly schtick ...

The correct answer is actually, "Not enough".

 

[alabama mike]

Pretty good analysis overall.

 

[rick4bama]

 

[It Takes Eleven]

@musso , I'd like to thank you for such a nice assessment.

You, or the guy who hacked your account...

 

[musso]

I meant to include another tidbit.

When I consider how good our offensive skill will be and juxtapose that with our strengths on defense (IMO the secondary and DE/edge personnel), I think how potent we can potentially be if Simpson can force defenses to at least respect his deep ball accuracy.

I’m thinking we will much prefer opposing offenses to play from behind. Now you may say, no crap, every team prefers their opponent to play from behind haha. But what I mean is, I think we will continue to be vulnerable against ball control offenses like Vandy and OU last season. I just think this is the unavoidable trade off with a 3-3-5 defense. However the difference between last season’s 9-4 finish and being a championship contender will be found in the holy grail of being capable of creating big explosives AND moving the chains on the ground when needed. The good news is I see more of the essential ingredients in this season’s offense for us to do both. And I really want to see opposing QBs forced to drop back against our edge pressure and talented secondary.

 

[bama alum]

@musso, really can't argue with any of that. RTR!

 

[50+yeartidefan]

I meant to include another tidbit.

When I consider how good our offensive skill will be and juxtapose that with our strengths on defense (IMO the secondary and DE/edge personnel), I think how potent we can potentially be if Simpson can force defenses to at least respect his deep ball accuracy.

I’m thinking we will much prefer opposing offenses to play from behind. Now you may say, no crap, every team prefers their opponent to play from behind haha. But what I mean is, I think we will continue to be vulnerable against ball control offenses like Vandy and OU last season. I just think this is the unavoidable trade off with a 3-3-5 defense. However the difference between last season’s 9-4 finish and being a championship contender will be found in the holy grail of being capable of creating big explosives AND moving the chains on the ground when needed. The good news is I see more of the essential ingredients in this season’s offense for us to do both. And I really want to see opposing QBs to be forced to drop back against our edge pressure and our talented secondary.

Keep on keeping on with analysis.
People on tv n print media are doing it and they dont know and care less.

I appreciate ever n willingness to sharee

 

[TerryP]

When I consider how good our offensive skill will be and juxtapose that with our strengths on defense (IMO the secondary and DE/edge personnel), I think how potent we can potentially be if Simpson can force defenses to at least respect his deep ball accuracy.

Give me the positive attributes you see in the Edge guys that makes you say "strength."

DL: another unit that suffered in Saban's latter seasons and will likely never return to Saban's best units due to NIL and the portal. But again, I think this year's unit will be the best group we've had in several years. I wish we had greater length and wingspan inside, but again compared to the last several seasons I'm not too worried. I'm a little nervous about the scheme's ability to stop a running attack using 22 or 12 personnel. But this isn't a discussion about scheme. I'm actually optimistic about the lesser known backups behind Keenan and Smith. And I'm even more excited about the Bandits and Wolves.

I don't blame, in the least, any Bama fan that wants a defense that performs like the one with Allen anchoring the line. We've seen a few guys like that through the years. A lot of that is because there are only a few guys like that.

While redundant, it needs to be said, "development is the key here."

Did you notice (or have you) the shift in defensive line recruiting? (bringing up running attack since you pussied out.)

As evidence ... and I'll let you look because it won't take much time.

Look at UGA to start; both the roster and recruiting. When the new guys hit campus you'll find the upperclassmen are Sophomores, a little older occasionally. Now that we know their age, look at the build. When these guys are hitting campus at UGA they already look like an SEC DL guy. You have your run stopper because of the size. You also have limited snaps based on down, distance, age ...

Now, flip to Tuscaloosa. We're seeing 240lbs guys commit to Bama. Tall, great wing span, but light. You'll see it this fall. Geez...let's see. Okay, look for Jeremiah Beaman. 6'4" guy who came into the program in the 250 range. (weigh, senior season.) In the least he's put on 250. UA's offical site/roster has him at 310. He's grown into that weight while training at Bama ( UA official roster says 312.)

 

[Bama Guy]

Just got to say, given the climate and landscape of the game, entering the second season of replacing the GOAT, the reunion of Grubb and DeBoer, I'm really excited about this season. Last season, I was probably more anxious than excited. But despite a challenging schedule this season, I feel more confident than I've felt in several seasons, because I sensed things slipping ever since Saban's loss to Georgia in the natty.

QB: Maybe Simpson lacks the ceiling or dynamism of any starting QB we've had since maybe Coaker, but I feel his floor will be higher than Milroe's was. And I expect him to exhibit the kind of consistency which is so critical to that position. I just have a good feeling for QBs who have patiently waited for their opportunity.

RB: I like our RB room as much as I've liked it since 2018's room consisting of Damian Harris, Jacobs, Najee, Robinson, Ford, etc. I'm not saying that we have the same elite talent, but I think we have broader, more top-to-bottom depth than we've had since 2018.

OL: I think we'll have the best starting group we've had in a while. Our OL was one of the positions that began to slip in Saban's final seasons, and this may be the best unit since 2020's Joe Moore unit. I'm not comfortable if we lose either starting OT, but I think we have adequate backups along the interior.

TE: Nothing spectacular here this season in my opinion, but I know the staff has been trying hard to upgrade this unit. I'm not in the loop, but I expect more blocking roles than receiving until our young talent matures in future seasons.

WR: Let's face it. It's been downhill ever since Tua's and Mack's targets left, since that was a historic collection of talent. But since those days, have we had a better WR 1-2-3 than Williams, Bernard, and Horton??? I say no. In fact, our last natty in 2020 probably a worse WR room than ours will be this season. I see this unit similar to our RB unit: better depth than we've had since Saban's best teams.

DL: another unit that suffered in Saban's latter seasons and will likely never return to Saban's best units due to NIL and the portal. But again, I think this year's unit will be the best group we've had in several years. I wish we had greater length and wingspan inside, but again compared to the last several seasons I'm not too worried. I'm a little nervous about the scheme's ability to stop a running attack using 22 or 12 personnel. But this isn't a discussion about scheme. I'm actually optimistic about the lesser known backups behind Keenan and Smith. And I'm even more excited about the Bandits and Wolves.

LB: I see it similar to our OTs: I'm happy as long as we don't lose any to injury. How can you not like our top 3 LBs all being 5th-year players???

DB: It's been surprising to me how much talent we've brought in after the mass exile which followed Saban's departure. So while we are still a bit young there's no room for complaining when you consider where we were after Saban's retirement. I personally felt Saban's ability to bring out the best in our DBs dropped off well before he retired. So while we may have always had adequate talent, I think our new staff is doing just as well with what they have, if not better.

I think from this point forward, losing a starter to injury will matter more than it used to matter. But this will be true across the board for all teams. But I really like what we have returning this season. So I felt obligated to share my rare optimism for any discussion.

Speaking of OL, what are your thoughts on Formby? Can he perform, presumably at RT?

 

[musso]

A lot of that is because there are only a few guys like that.

Exactly. Always was rare and will be rarer still with every passing year. Elite DL are following the path of the fullback, for both similar and dissimilar reasons. In the near future, we will be telling tales to our youth of the days when 300-pound giants roamed the gridiron, colliding into each other play after play, displaying the strength, athleticism and stamina of track-and-field athletes. The kids will inquire, “But, but, why were they colliding into each other, and why were defenders slamming into ball carriers rather than simply grabbing their flags?” We will then have to reveal the disturbing and shameful truth of the past, “Son, in those days, there were no flags attached to the waists of players. Violence was rampant and even celebrated in the game of football. And everyone enjoyed it, at least until the ‘doctors’ came with their ‘science.’”

 

[musso]

Give me the positive attributes you see in the Edge guys that makes you say "strength."

I don't possess exclusive subscription insight or have any sources within the program. I only speak as a middle aged fan who can recognize patterns. And I see several concurrent attributes which usually signal good things to come:

1. Age -- In my working depth chart, I have 9 guys who will primarily be either a Bandit or Wolf in "regular" down and distance, excluding 3rd and long packages and excluding how our ILBs are used as pass rushers. This will be the 3rd year or more for 7/9 guys. So that's unique.
2. Ratings -- All of the 9 guys were either 4 or 5 star recruits, which can't be said for our interior D linemen.
3. Year Two under Wommack -- We always see improvement after the first year under a new HC and/or coordinator. This applies not only to players better understanding the scheme but strength coaches molding the personnel's bodies to better execute the scheme.
4. Year Two for Wommack -- Coaches can benefit from adjusting to new jobs as much as players. I think last season was a whirlwind for the staff, and I would not have wished that upon anyone. I expect better coaching from Wommack this season just as I expect better execution from his players.
5. Talented secondary -- We are normally accustomed to hearing how a pass rush reduces the coverage burden on DBs, Well I think the reverse is also true. I think our quality secondary will help extend opportunities for our pass rushers to apply pressure.

So while I can imagine rebuttals and exceptions to each of these factors, my optimism stems from the convergence of all of them this season.

While redundant, it needs to be said, "development is the key here."

Agreed, obviously. As critical as this is to the product eventually put on display this fall, it isn't something that lends itself to preseason chatter and speculation. All we have to work with is predetermined attributes. Player development is actively unfolding in real time based upon the decisions of each player, every passing day, in every workout, at every meal, etc. Those of you who have "inside" information about summer workouts and summer progress will naturally be better informed. I only ask if you have any bad news, please allow me this rare moment of optimistic bliss. It feels so nice.

Did you notice (or have you) the shift in defensive line recruiting?

I have, although I haven't known whether it was deliberate or merely the effect of rising scarcity of elite DL prospects and losing our market share to UGA, Texas, NIL, etc. I've leaned toward the latter explanation.

look for Jeremiah Beaman.

I'm aware, but you mention the tallest interior guy we have (oops, edit, Collins is listed an inch taller). Mboumoua and Collins have good frames and appear to have a promising upside, but everyone else resembles a Warren Sapp body type, which concerns me relative to our 3-3-5 scheme. We don't really have the interior guys who demand consistent double teams. And to be fair, this trend began well before Saban left. Baramore was probably the last physically dominant interior guy we've had. As I follow recruiting (I'm sure others follow it more, you included), there's just a dwindling pool of difference makers every year on the inside, and NIL is putting them on the field earlier and earlier without having to first improve their craft before stepping onto the field.

 

[musso]

Speaking of OL, what are your thoughts on Formby? Can he perform, presumably at RT?

I have some concerns about him, just as I have with every OT not named Proctor. I do expect a better version of him though this season. We really need progress from our reserve OTs this offseason. My spider sense tells me a greater commitment to the ground game, particularly with significant leads in the 2nd half.

 

[TerryP]

I'd like to know what "exclusive subscription insight" is supposed to be. Is that college football's version of "Inside the Beltway?"

So while I can imagine rebuttals and exceptions to each of these factors, my optimism stems from the convergence of all of them this season.

I don't know if I can say "here's a rebuttal" or "here's an exception." BUT, here's as exception:

"...,I have 9 guys..."
..-- All of the nine guys..."

Perfectly supports the rebuttal..."9 guys" ... when they need two more from those edge positions for pass rush. That's not a strength in my opinion.

As critical as this is to the product eventually put on display this fall, it isn't something that lends itself to preseason chatter and speculation. All we have to work with is predetermined attributes.

"...it isn't something that lends itself to preseason chatter.." in thread where we're chatting about ___ and speculating. I can personally attest to bringing up concerns for the defensive line for the last three seasons. I can't say how loudly @Brandon Van de Graaff hears the criticisms. I believe they need to see an "iron sharpening iron" within the staff on that side of the ball. If at the end of the season and we're discussing how dull that line has been.

---

---

---

I don't think we'll see people disagree with your overall assessment of where the team is on that side of the ball. I won't disagree with any references back to Saban's comments of old, "affecting the quarterback."

 

[musso]

I'd like to know what "exclusive subscription insight" is supposed to be.

Insight informed by news content exclusively available to paid subscribers.

I don't know if I can say "here's a rebuttal" or "here's an exception." BUT, here's as exception:

"...,I have 9 guys..."
..-- All of the nine guys..."

Perfectly supports the rebuttal..."9 guys" ... when they need two more from those edge positions for pass rush. That's not a strength in my opinion.

Eh?

"...it isn't something that lends itself to preseason chatter.." in thread where we're chatting about ___ and speculating.

You didn’t understand. All good.

I can personally attest to bringing up concerns for the defensive line for the last three seasons. I can't say how loudly @Brandon Van de Graaff hears the criticisms. I believe they need to see an "iron sharpening iron" within the staff on that side of the ball.

Agreed.

 

[TerryP]

DB: It's been surprising to me how much talent we've brought in after the mass exile which followed Saban's departure. So while we are still a bit young there's no room for complaining when you consider where we were after Saban's retirement. I personally felt Saban's ability to bring out the best in our DBs dropped off well before he retired. So while we may have always had adequate talent, I think our new staff is doing just as well with what they have, if not better.

When we're talking about Saban's defensive backfield versus Wommack's it like the Ornarans and the Brekkans. So, let's just put all that away. We can.

Why? Saban had two starters. We'll see 10 in the rotation with four, or more, starters this season. (It's 25 days 'til the season starts: #25 would start anywhere and will in Tuscaloosa.)

BUT. I've pointed to this in the past going back to Kirby's early years here. Safety, or cornerback?

Bama spent a lot of time in nickel as has been pointed out a time or two. When facing your "non-prime" receiving threats (TE, RB, Slot Rcvr.) we've seen that nickle or money guy in coverage: it's been either a true corner or true safety. Bama has been burnt on both; much more against that safety. Under Saban, much better with a coverage guy.

Now it looks like CKW wants more of a safety in the HUSKY role. That brings us to Deshawn Jones. (mid-season first starting snaps...'about the time some things started clicking in the defensive backfield.) Now, got Red coming back there...

This is a bit circular here. I've mentioned concerns with the defensive line and stopping the run game. In this defense, CKW likes a HUSKY that can play on the line of scrimmage.

 

[TerryP]

Insight informed by news content exclusively available to paid subscribers.

I still don't know what this is. But then again, I guess I do. I'm reading your content, not what I'd call news, but it's your insight, and I'm paying for it in both senses of the word.

I didn't get YOUR point I guess: that valuable subscriber insight. Shit. I must be doing something wrong.

Here's my point about UGA and UA physiques; specifically with the interior. UGA has guys that are their goal weight and height from day one in Athens. What I've seen from UA, so far, is a trend to bring them in a little on the light side and then field the same "athlete" as UGA, just a year later. (IF I'm right, it makes last season a miss in terms of numbers.)

It's going to be a good defense. Efficiency numbers should improve giving that 'good' evaluation room to have an adjective added to proceed it ... If they can get two guys to get them some good pressure from the edges it's group that can be a really good defense: bordering on great.

It took about half of the season to rid the defensive locker rooms of the side effects from LANK. In my opinion, that's pretty well accomplished (sans the term.) The team is seeing leaders coming from all different places: like Cam who is coming off the bench as a CB.

For what it's worth, free opinion here, my opinion hasn't changed a great deal since spring camp ended.

 

[musso]

I think how potent we can potentially be if Simpson can force defenses to at least respect his deep ball accuracy.

Reece sort of echoing my sentiments.