TerryP
Staff
Up until recently ESPN didn't release their BPI until mid-December then they started publishing preseason rankings. The reason for not releasing their power rankings was the lack of data: now it's based as much on pre-season projections as it is real time rankings. I believe this is the case with such a high percentage given to Houston.BPI gives Houston a 61.4% chance to win this game.
To date, Houston's competition hasn't come close to the level Bama's seen. They have one Q1 game (lost) just like Bama (won.) UH hasn't played a team in Q2 while Bama is 4-1 against the same group. UH is 4-0 in both Q3 and Q4 where Bama has only played one game against that group.
Back to the BPI:
Like the FPI we don't know what goes into their rankings and what's in their formula. Based on other metric based rankings Houston has a slight edge in defensive efficiency on one (KenPom) where others have Bama rated higher (Haslam.)
61.4% ... too high.