🏈 🔎 Looking ahead to this weekend: Missouri. (Jefferson, Hubbard, Ty, and Formby interviews.)

[bamaledge]

Is Missouri better than Vanderbilt or Georgia?
Looks like they’ve had a bunch of practice games to get ready for us, but not much competition.

 

[It Takes Eleven]

Is Missouri better than Vanderbilt or Georgia?
Looks like they’ve had a bunch of practice games to get ready for us, but not much competition.

I agree, it's hard to tell from their schedule. Compared to Vandy, the spread is tighter, and the ESPN matchup predictor is starting out in the 60's instead of 70's as to a Bama win likelihood. Compared to Georgia, we were the underdog by both measures. So, I'd say closer to Vandy than Georgia, somewhere in between.

Against their competition, they've put up major yards and have been well balanced. That schedule to date is ranked 109. Bama's is 3. They handled SC with their QB, gave up 31 to Kansas. They've shown - again, against their competition to date - an ability to run the ball and control the clock.

 

[TerryP]

an ability to run the ball

We were talking about Ahmad Hardy before the season started. I know he's leading the conference. If the numbers held true through last weekend the RB in second place is averaging around sixty yards less per game. Their backup should still be in the top ten in the SEC a YPG.

 

[Justneedme81]

I agree, it's hard to tell from their schedule. Compared to Vandy, the spread is tighter, and the ESPN matchup predictor is starting out in the 60's instead of 70's as to a Bama win likelihood. Compared to Georgia, we were the underdog by both measures. So, I'd say closer to Vandy than Georgia, somewhere in between.

Against their competition, they've put up major yards and have been well balanced. That schedule to date is ranked 109. Bama's is 3. They handled SC with their QB, gave up 31 to Kansas. They've shown - again, against their competition to date - an ability to run the ball and control the clock.

Did you read my notes or something? I literally wrote same thing and had it saved for me to post today. Throw my phone away

 

[Justneedme81]

The one main point I can't get past by is that all of their games has been at home. They haven't been tested. They were in similar position last year undefeated before playing Alabama.

The only thing I wonder is.... Can we limit Hardy? I don't know but I cannot see this team sustaining drives against Alabama consistently.

Check out the SC game. It took them a while to finally click and get points on board.

 

[Kamikazi18627]

I feel that if Bama stays the course, it shouldn't be much of a game in the end. Limit big plays and control the clock with the offense- should be fine.

I would like to see us stop the big running plays on defense. Seems that giving up big run plays is a problem.

 

[TerryP]

That schedule to date is ranked 109. Bama's is 3.

I haven't looked. Where did the #109th come from?

I'm thinking we'll find a difference, maybe a large one, from one ranking to another on SOS because they haven't left CoMo yet. SOR may be just as bad.

 

[It Takes Eleven]

I haven't looked. Where did the #109th come from?

I'm thinking we'll find a difference, maybe a large one, from one ranking to another on SOS because they haven't left CoMo yet. SOR may be just as bad.

2025 Resume College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2025 Resume College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.

www.espn.com

SOS is, I believe, what you've already faced (Bama 3, Mizzou 109) and REM SOS is the strength of your remaining games (Bama 12, Mizzou 7).

EDIT: Also, I hate that it doesn't allow to see changes week to week, but using archive.org I was able to pull a late September shot, and it had Vandy at 86 just before us, or two weeks before us.

https://web.archive.org/web/20250928140300/https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume

 

[TerryP]

PPP is glaring to me.

(Here's bad. AU .006 PPD on the road this season. They are .392 at home with UGA visiting.)

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Mizzu. Sure put up the points. May be weak opponents but .....dang

We need to get our point production back in 30-40s. I know we are killing games with top ....6-7-8 minute drives. But need to convert to TD. Seem to fizzle as we getdeeper in drive.

A lot of O numbers to translate to few points

 

[UAgrad93]

Mizzu. Sure put up the points. May be weak opponents but .....dang

We need to get our point production back in 30-40s. I know we are killing games with top ....6-7-8 minute drives. But need to convert to TD. Seem to fizzle as we getdeeper in drive.

A lot of O numbers to translate to few points

“Fizzle” occurs when you get a condensed field and a lack of execution, either a missed block, a penalty, or a dropped pass.
We currently sit at 36.4 ppg.

 

[Justneedme81]

Mizzu. Sure put up the points. May be weak opponents but .....dang

We need to get our point production back in 30-40s. I know we are killing games with top ....6-7-8 minute drives. But need to convert to TD. Seem to fizzle as we getdeeper in drive.

A lot of O numbers to translate to few points

That's the issue I have with right there. I'm not sure if it's who they were playing against because it was two different team in Mizz .

 

[Justneedme81]

Here's what I'm struggling with. @BamaFan334

Are they overrated or underrated? Can they be both at same time?

 

[TerryP]

2025 Resume College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2025 Resume College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.

www.espn.com

SOS is, I believe, what you've already faced (Bama 3, Mizzou 109) and REM SOS is the strength of your remaining games (Bama 12, Mizzou 7).

I'm thinking we'll find a difference, maybe a large one, from one ranking to another on SOS because they haven't left CoMo yet. SOR may be just as bad.

Sagarin has them in DII company; 150th. (UA - 4th.)
Teamrankings has them at 52nd. (UA - 1st.)

 

[TerryP]

Here's what I'm struggling with. @BamaFan334

Are they overrated or underrated? Can they be both at same time?

Same word as lack week. Are they proven?

I pointed to Vandy's ODA last week. Missouri is coming in at 117th...all at home.

 

[Justneedme81]

Same word as lack week. Are they proven?

I pointed to Vandy's ODA last week. Missouri is coming in at 117th...all at home.

One with a sense would think this game might either get out of hand fast or self inflicted mistakes that keeps Mizz in game

 

[TerryP]

One with a sense would think this game might either get out of hand fast or self inflicted mistakes that keeps Mizz in game

If I keep looking at Mizzou I won't get the 'book done.

The reason I looked at PPP was to get a bearing on PPD looks like. Based on those two it spells what they want to do on offense. (Still a .25 difference favoring UA.)

When you start looking at adjusted offensive points per drive the using the UofSC and UGA games looks to be about the only comparison due to points scored. But, those defenses are not the same.


Caveat: I can't call Drinkwitz predictable even though his offense has been this year.

 

[UAgrad93]

Just looking at some offensive and defensive numbers, just scoring and total and making a comparison.
Kansas- scoring O -39th, total O -40th
Scoring D - 44th and Total D - 79th.
USCe was the best overall defense at 33rd and 44th. Louisiana and UMass bottom of the barrel across the board.

Bama, by comparison La-Monroe is our throw away game.
FSU- 5th and 3rd offensively while FSU, Vandy, UGA and Wisky all sit fairly close defensively low 30’s to 40.

 

[BamaFan334]

Here's what I'm struggling with. @BamaFan334

Are they overrated or underrated? Can they be both at same time?

Depends on the kind of day I'm having, ha ha. Drinkwitz has done a great job up there building a team that can compete. Missouri has never jumped off the page to me as a place that could draw a lot of talent, not with Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Nebraska so close by. i think they have some guys on defense that can make some plays, and building on an offense the last couple of years that are very scrappy. I think they can most definitely be both. I thought Vanderbilt was the same way to be honest. Play down to them and they will beat you. Play your level of expectations, you will beat them.

 

[Justneedme81]

Just looking at some offensive and defensive numbers, just scoring and total and making a comparison.
Kansas- scoring O -39th, total O -40th
Scoring D - 44th and Total D - 79th.
USCe was the best overall defense at 33rd and 44th. Louisiana and UMass bottom of the barrel across the board.

Bama, by comparison La-Monroe is our throw away game.
FSU- 5th and 3rd offensively while FSU, Vandy, UGA and Wisky all sit fairly close defensively low 30’s to 40.

I want to see third down and passing data. I'm gonna watch Mizz and SC game tonight. I'm gonna look at first half and then second half to help determine what we could see.