FSU isn't losing to Louisville, Louisville just lost to a 2-7 team, they are like FSU paper heroes.
Neither of those teams would stand up against us, but FSU will get in on sheer name and undefeated record despite playing only 2 games against decent teams, in LSU and Clemson both of which have quite a few losses under their belt.
Texas will keep us out because of head to head, they are getting worse as the season goes on but their win against us is propelling them right now.
Oregon and FSU are the same, but at least Oregon I believe looks pretty good, but they really haven't beaten anyone of note.
Bama really needs the Pac-12 to kill itself, FSU to lose a game somehow, and Texas to eat a loss still just to make it in.
There's a nightmare SEC scenario that could play out this year that people aren't realizing, if Bama beats UGA and wins the SECCG
1) Ohio State/Michigan Win Out - Very likely
2) Washington Wins Out - Very likely
3) FSU Wins Out - Very likely
4) Texas Wins Out - Very likely
Those are likely your top 4 right there, no SEC at all
Bama at 5
Georgia at 6