šŸˆ Bama's Likely BCS Opponents and the Probable Outcome

If Stanford beats Oregon, I am curious where this will leave both Oregon and Stanford. Both will be one loss teams but who is "better"? I think that would throw the BCS a bit.

Re: Oregon's defense, call me crazy but their D is pretty solid this year. They're not a one trick pony anymore. They have some big playmakers on both sides of the ball.
 
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Oregon can lose to Stanford and make it to the BCS only if they lose a very close game to Stanford (OT maybe), win out from there, and Ohio State, Clemson, FSU, and Miami all take a loss somewhere. A round robin of FSU beating Clemson, Miami beating FSU, and VT beating Miami, and then Michigan paying back Ohio State would likely be enough to do it.
 
Assuming Bama makes it to the BCS and they should with their talent.... I'm putting my whole stack of chips on Oregon as their opponent. I'd prefer Ohio State cuz, judging how they played against Northwestern, they'd be an easier opponent, but I don't see the Ducks losing to Stanford. The Ducks IMO are the only serious threat to our 3-peat. But let's finish the season first. :tongue-new:
 
Does anyone here think there is a chance that Alabama could win out, and yet not be one of the teams invited to the BCS NC game? What if Alabama wins a close one against LSU, then also barely beats a one-loss (maybe lower than top 5) SEC East champion, while FSU and Oregon both win out convincingly? Do we still get in?
 
MissingRing said:
Does anyone here think there is a chance that Alabama could win out, and yet not be one of the teams invited to the BCS NC game? What if Alabama wins a close one against LSU, then also barely beats a one-loss (maybe lower than top 5) SEC East champion, while FSU and Oregon both win out convincingly? Do we still get in?
Click to expand...

We started the season at #1 and until something incredible happens to take us to #3 (assuming we go undefeated and win the SECCG), we will be in the championship.
 
PhillyGirl said:
We started the season at #1 and until something incredible happens to take us to #3 (assuming we go undefeated and win the SECCG), we will be in the championship.
Click to expand...

Squirrely things are already happening in some of the computer ranking systems used as a part of the BCS formula. In Massey Ratings, for example, we've been ranked #1 since the start of the season, until today. We just put a major whipping on Kentucky, yet Massey now has us #2 with Oregon as #1 and FSU #3. Colley Matrix, another one of the six BCS computer rating systems, actually has us at #4 while FSU is #1. Sagarin has us #2 and Oregon #1. I understand that the computers make up only 1/3 of the formula, but I'm concerned that, if the regular season ends with more than two undefeated, AP top-5 teams, margin of victory and the perceived strength of the SEC champion could become critical factors for Alabama (not just winning).
 
MissingRing said:
Squirrely things are already happening in some of the computer ranking systems used as a part of the BCS formula. In Massey Ratings, for example, we've been ranked #1 since the start of the season, until today. We just put a major whipping on Kentucky, yet Massey now has us #2 with Oregon as #1 and FSU #3. Colley Matrix, another one of the six BCS computer rating systems, actually has us at #4 while FSU is #1. Sagarin has us #2 and Oregon #1. I understand that the computers make up only 1/3 of the formula, but I'm concerned that, if the regular season ends with more than two undefeated, AP top-5 teams, margin of victory and the perceived strength of the SEC champion could become critical factors for Alabama (not just winning).
Click to expand...

I've not seen the projected week seven BCS standings yet (usually updated at some point on Monday) so if we use week six as an example we'd have the Tide ranked as follows:

[TABLE="width: 795"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 38, align: center"]Rank[/TD]
[TD="width: 38, align: center"] Pvs[/TD]
[TD="width: 108, align: center"] Team[/TD]
[TD="width: 24, align: center"] Rk[/TD]
[TD="width: 56, align: center"] Coach[/TD]
[TD="width: 56, align: center"] %[/TD]
[TD="width: 24, align: center"] Rk[/TD]
[TD="width: 56, align: center"] AP[/TD]
[TD="width: 56, align: center"] %[/TD]
[TD="width: 30, align: center"] AH[/TD]
[TD="width: 30, align: center"] CM[/TD]
[TD="width: 30, align: center"] JS[/TD]
[TD="width: 30, align: center"] KM[/TD]
[TD="width: 30, align: center"] Md*[/TD]
[TD="width: 30, align: center"] RB[/TD]
[TD="width: 56, align: center"] Cp Avg[/TD]
[TD="width: 56, align: center"] BCS[/TD]
[TD="width: 47, align: center"] Conf[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"] 1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 1[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] Alabama[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 1[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 1544[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 0.9961[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 1[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 1495[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 0.9967[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 1[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 4[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 2[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 3[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 2[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 2[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 0.950[/TD]
[TD="align: general"] 0.9809[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] SEC[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

We'd have one computer ranking dropped giving us #1, 2, 3, 2, and 2.

Looking at Oregon, just as one example, if we dropped their lowest ranking with AH-#10, they'd still have CM-#10 along with KM and RB ranking them 7th.

If we chose to rank teams based on the computers alone Clemson and Stanford would be ranked higher than Oregon after week six.

Looking at rankings as a whole, Oregon is trailing Clemson in the BCS standings as of week six with a larger margin separating those two teams than Clemson and Bama.

I've not made a comparison in the last 12 hours or so but one key to look at is where the votes Stanford was receiving ended up landing after their lossā€”Oregon, Clemson, or Ohio State.
 
MissingRing said:
Does anyone here think there is a chance that Alabama could win out, and yet not be one of the teams invited to the BCS NC game? What if Alabama wins a close one against LSU, then also barely beats a one-loss (maybe lower than top 5) SEC East champion, while FSU and Oregon both win out convincingly? Do we still get in?
Click to expand...

That's a good question. As long as Bama is ranked #1 or #2 they are in regardless of two undefeated teams. However, given how the SEC has done in OOC games this year I could see that being used against a one loss SEC team and two undefeated teams going to the BCS Championship game.

Key for Bama is LSU. Got to win that and you'll be in.
 
Just out of curiosity here, how many people think they'll be more than two undefeated teams at the end of the season and who do you think they'll be?

I can't decide yet if I like FSU or Clemson best, but they'll cancel one of the other out...

Larry
 
beachfinder said:
Just out of curiosity here, how many people think they'll be more than two undefeated teams at the end of the season and who do you think they'll be?

I can't decide yet if I like FSU or Clemson best, but they'll cancel one of the other out...

Larry
Click to expand...

There is a chance...but unlikely. It will be down to 4 in a matter of weeks (from 6 undefeated teams).


  • FSU/Clemson winner this weekend - (but they both have to play in State OOC rivals at the end of the year).
  • Oregon/UCLA winner play 10/26.
  • Ohio State (although the odds are against them)
  • Alabama.

From there, I could see both Stanford and Michigan making things interesting and reducing it down to two. Then as I mentioned above, the two out of conference state rivals Clemson/SC and Florida/FSU at the end of November.
 
beachfinder said:
Just out of curiosity here, how many people think they'll be more than two undefeated teams at the end of the season and who do you think they'll be?

I can't decide yet if I like FSU or Clemson best, but they'll cancel one of the other out...

Larry
Click to expand...

Oregon (UCLA will have a hard time winning the south division let alone going undefeated. With road games at Stanford, Oregon and rival USC as well as Washington and ASU still on the schedule. They have a tough schedule to stay undefeated)
Winner of Clemson/Florida St
Louisville
Fresno St
Ohio State
 
I've watched enough ACC seasons to know Miami/FSU/Clemson will end up knocking each other off and no one will finish undefeated. Heck, in the ACC, it wouldn't surprise me to see one of them lose to North Carolina or Ga Tech.

I think Bama will finish undefeated and it's tough for me to see UCLA or Stanford beating Oregon. I think that is your title game and I think Ohio State will also be undefeated, but left out in the cold again. I also think Louisville, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois will be undefeated and Fresno and Louisville will play in a BCS bowl somewhere.

The most intriguing thing to me is thinking about the winner of Baylor - Texas Tech. Can that team go undefeated? Remember, that conference is down to 10 teams so they don't play a championship game any more. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of those teams finish 12-0 with the problems at Texas and OK.
 
RollTideRandy said:
I've watched enough ACC seasons to know Miami/FSU/Clemson will end up knocking each other off and no one will finish undefeated. Heck, in the ACC, it wouldn't surprise me to see one of them lose to North Carolina or Ga Tech.

I think Bama will finish undefeated and it's tough for me to see UCLA or Stanford beating Oregon. I think that is your title game and I think Ohio State will also be undefeated, but left out in the cold again. I also think Louisville, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois will be undefeated and Fresno and Louisville will play in a BCS bowl somewhere.

The most intriguing thing to me is thinking about the winner of Baylor - Texas Tech. Can that team go undefeated? Remember, that conference is down to 10 teams so they don't play a championship game any more. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of those teams finish 12-0 with the problems at Texas and OK.
Click to expand...

I don't see Baylor or Texas Tech going undefeated. Also, I should probably change my view on the ACC, Miami certainly has the easiest schedule remaining and could end up the undefeated team coming out of the ACC.
 

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