🏈 GAME THREAD Alabama visits LSU on Saturday night

[94 Grad]

Pfft. Y'all giving way to much credit to LSWho's D.

From what I've seen, it's nowhere near as good as UGA's was last year in the title game.

They have no answer for Tua. No one does..

I'm calling it big, 42-17.

If LSU runs clock and limits our possessions to only 10, we will at least score a TD on half of those.... and the other 5 we kick @ least 2 FG. so 41 - 17.

 

[rammerjammer]

If Bama gets to 34 we win.

Do you honestly think LSU will score 33 points on our D? They only put up 19 vs MSU and UF....

I'm guessing between 17-24 points for LSU, but that is with a 4th quarter trash TD after the game has been decided. The second string is out there getting to play in Death Valley, on the road.

 

[94 Grad]

I keep hearing how LSU's DB are the best in the league, but looking at the rankings I don't see that. LSU ranks 37th on pass defense after facing some of the weakest passing offenses out there....

MSU ranks 110 in passing offense
UF ranks 90th
Miami 89th
Auburn 85th
UGA 64th
LA Tech 44th
SE Louisiana unranked FCS school

The only passing offense they've seen was Ole Miss @ 4th.

As a comparison, we've faced:

Ole Miss, 4th in passing offense
Missouri, 18th
aTm, 23rd
Arky State, 24th
ULL, 77th
Louisville, 84th
UT, 92nd
Arky, 101st (BTW, LSU is ranked 102nd)

And we are ranked 33rd in passing defense.

My guess is we see a better pass defense every day in practice than what LSU will be bringing to the field... but maybe I'm wrong...

 

[Elderfalsedemigod]

I keep hearing how LSU's DB are the best in the league,

I don't think they are the best in the league. I do think they will be the most dynamic secondary Bama has faced. Delpit is very versatile and overall they are very athletic and fast. I also think they are somewhat susceptible to PA/RPO set up off the run game because they are very aggressive. I look for Irv to have another big game, especially in the beginning with White out and a SO coming in to replace him. I wouldn't be surprised to also see quite a bit of the 2 back pistol formation that we've seen a little bit of in a couple of games so far. JMO

 

[UAgrad93]

Delpit is likely their best player. He leads their team in sacks I believe. That doesn't say much for their DL in my honest opinion if your leading sack man is a safety HAVING to play down close to the line. I look for Irv Smith, Jr to have a BIG game and we win going away, 42-14!

 

[Sgt. Lincoln Osiris]

 

[TerryP]

There's a guy I know that lives in Roswell, GA...fella I've known since I was a kid. I hesitate to use the word insider but getting bad information from him when it comes to UGA isn't commonplace--it's an anomaly.

I had an interesting conversation with him today and one of the things he mentioned was playing LSU. One thing that struck me about that contest was the pre-game press conference with Kirby. To me, it came across as pretty cocky. There was a tone there I just didn't feel comfortable with knowing Kirby for so long now.

I brought it up this morning and his response wasn't shocking, but it does fit with what we talked about in the summer about how many seniors UGA was losing.

"It's a George Custer part deux." I didn't get it at first but when he followed that with "they feel like they have everyone surrounded."

As it boils down it's his opinion we as Bama fans should take very little from what happened between UGA and LSU. As I listened to his little rant it came down to this--the UGA players, and their young coaches alike, are missing a fundamental trait--leadership. He said, and I quote, "What you're seeing is a lot of pomposity, bluster, gasconade if you will" There's no basis for it--it's all false bravado in other words.

I'm sure there's still a bit of him that's upset with the loss. But, he's not blaming officials or the SEC conference. He's simply stating, "it's not what a lot people think it is."

 

[94 Grad]

There's a guy I know that lives in Roswell, GA...fella I've known since I was a kid. I hesitate to use the word insider but getting bad information from him when it comes to UGA isn't commonplace--it's an anomaly.

I had an interesting conversation with him today and one of the things he mentioned was playing LSU. One thing that struck me about that contest was the pre-game press conference with Kirby. To me, it came across as pretty cocky. There was a tone there I just didn't feel comfortable with knowing Kirby for so long now.

I brought it up this morning and his response wasn't shocking, but it does fit with what we talked about in the summer about how many seniors UGA was losing.

"It's a George Custer part deux." I didn't get it at first but when he followed that with "they feel like they have everyone surrounded."

As it boils down it's his opinion we as Bama fans should take very little from what happened between UGA and LSU. As I listened to his little rant it came down to this--the UGA players, and their young coaches alike, are missing a fundamental trait--leadership. He said, and I quote, "What you're seeing is a lot of pomposity, bluster, gasconade if you will" There's no basis for it--it's all false bravado in other words.

I'm sure there's still a bit of him that's upset with the loss. But, he's not blaming officials or the SEC conference. He's simply stating, "it's not what a lot people think it is."

UGa lost because of a Key fumble lost and a stupid fake FG that went completely wrong...

Oh, and the fact Fromm whet 16 of 34...

I really don't know why they don't play the Freshman, Fromm has looked pretty bad this year vs any type of defense... He does great with ZERO pressure, but put him in a game where he needs to think quickly and he falls apart.....

I didn't really see UGa as a world beater this year before the year started. Sure, they looked the best in the East, but that's not saying much.

Without their key RB from last year and Defensive studs... they are a bit lost. I don't/didn't see the players behind those key pieces being plug in and go type guys.

 

[TerryP]

a stupid fake FG that went completely wrong...

Did you notice a significant change in the way UGA was playing afterwards? My impression was that of a balloon being burst--no wind in their sails after that.

LSU punched them in the mouth a few times and they didn't know how to respond.

 

[94 Grad]

a stupid fake FG that went completely wrong...

Did you notice a significant change in the way UGA was playing afterwards? My impression was that of a balloon being burst--no wind in their sails after that.

LSU punched them in the mouth a few times and they didn't know how to respond.

I understand, but my point was more they gave points away in that game. It was much closer than the final score would have indicated. They are not a great team for sure... but neither is LSU in my opinion.

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

a stupid fake FG that went completely wrong...

Did you notice a significant change in the way UGA was playing afterwards? My impression was that of a balloon being burst--no wind in their sails after that.

LSU punched them in the mouth a few times and they didn't know how to respond.

I believe UGA is a very talented team that has followed the path of the 2010 Bama team and that was overconfident and entitled. Making the show in 2017 isn't something that program has experienced in near 40 years. LSU bitchslapped them pretty good and perhaps that might be the difference in UGA getting back to Atlanta if they are able to regroup starting this Saturday. Bama couldn't get it together even after the head ball coach and the chickins blasted them. We'll now about 6 PM on Saturday where UGA stands.

 

[TerryP]

 

[94 Grad]

We need to start consistently scoring TDs again vs LSU.

Where I don’t think LSU is a very good team, a bunch of Drink Cajun fans can make this a difficult game if we leave them in the game for too long. We need to put it on heavy and not give them any reason to believe they belong on that field with us.

 

[Sgt. Lincoln Osiris]

 

[Max]

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is well on his way to becoming a No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. It’s certainly not a stretch to say that, given how well he passes the eye test eight games through the college football season.

But when you add statistical analysis on top of that, you see a player who looks not only like a near-lock for the Heisman Trophy, but also a future NFL star, despite the fact he hasn’t taken a single fourth-quarter snap this season.

Tagovailoa already helped the Crimson Tide win a national title in relief, and is on his way to winning another as a starter — either this year or the next — before he's eligible to enter the draft. The scouts and evaluators have raised the hype to an unprecedented level for a pro quarterback prospect of his age.

Here's a look at what those stats mean for his future in the pros, and how they compare to the best who ever played in college and NFL:

Passing efficiency

When you factor in Tagovailoa's passing statistics over eight games (107 for 152, 2,066 yards, 25 touchdowns, no interceptions, 70.4 completion rate, 16.9 adjusted yards per attempt) and use that to project what he will do in 14 games — the average number of games recent drafted quarterbacks have played in a college season — you get a college quarterback rating of 238.8. That would shatter the outrageous consecutive records Baker Mayfield set at Oklahoma in 2016 (196.4) and 2017 (198.9).

Translating that to the NFL's version of passing efficiency, Tagovailoa would be at 152.4 — not far from the "perfect" rating of 158.3. And for those who say rating isn't as relevant as other, more modern metrics such as QBR, consider this: The four highest-rated quarterbacks in NFL history (Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Drew Brees) have all won a Super Bowl. The top 13 quarterbacks all-time in that metric have combined to win 18 of 52 Super Bowls.



The college metric has become a good indicator of championship-caliber teams and potential No. 1 overall selections in the NFL Draft. Along with Mayfield, Florida State's Jameis Winston (184.8 rating in 2013) and Auburn's Cam Newton (182.0 in 2010) also used incredible playmaking ability on top of their high-efficiency output to stake their claims as No. 1 overall picks.




But when considering Tagovailoa, who is listed at 6-1, 218 pounds, also keep in mind who's No. 5 on the all-time single-season passer rating list: Russell Wilson (191.8), from his 2011 season at Wisconsin.

Completion percentage

Tagovailoa's 70.4 completion percentage would put him "only" 48th all-time for a single season. That's only because several high-volume, spread-style offenses have set up many talented college passers for a ton of easy completions. But Tagovailoa is matching all their quick throws and taking it to a higher level with his jaw-dropping deep-ball accuracy.

No college passer before Tagovailoa has been able to post such impressive combined stats in efficiency and completion percentage. The closest to approach Tagovailoa's stat line? Yep, that's Wilson, at No. 10 (72.8 percent) from that same '11 season. Tagovailoa's completion percentage is right there with what Mayfield did in '16 (70.9) and '17 (70.5) on his way to the No. 1 overall pick, as well.

Tagovailoa also is in the same range as two more notable player comparison for single-season completion percentage: BYU's Steve Young in 1983 (71.3) and Stanford's Andrew Luck in 2010 (70.7).

In terms of pure passing, Tagovailoa is the most skilled left-handed quarterback NFL prospect since Young, who went No. 1 overall in the 1984 USFL/CFL draft. Tagovailoa also has the production and toughness of Luck to be the same can't-miss-type of prospect, the first since the 2012 NFL Draft — from which Wilson is now the best quarterback.

Brees, of course, is the NFL’s all-time leader in completion percentage. The not-so-surprising Kirk Cousins is tied for second. Cousins is right up there with Rodgers, Wilson, Brady and Brees as an elite active downfield passer, so it's only more great company for Tagovailoa in an area in which he excels.

Adjusted yards per attempt

Do not adjust your eyes — that ridiculous 16.9 number is real and spectacular. Tagovailoa's actual yards per attempt are 13.6, but "adjusted" is a more accurate indicator because it more rewards touchdowns and further penalizes interceptions. He'd be well past everyone all-time if it weren't for Oklahoma's Kyler Murray (14.7 AYPA) also having a big year with this stat. Mayfield, of course, ranks in third and fourth place for his 2016 and '17 seasons (12.3 and 12.9 AYPA, respectively).

Looking at Tagovailoa’s comparable pro counterparts, Wilson is tied for fifth with Baylor's Robert Griffin III in adjusted yards per attempt in 2011 (11.8). The next person on the list will draw another comparison for Tagovailoa as a dynamic, rifled-armed lefty who took both college football and NFL by storm: Virginia Tech's Michael Vick, who stills holds up as eighth (11.5) from 1999.

Here's the crazy part: Tagovailoa can see his adjusted yards per attempt cut by more that half — to less than 8.45 — by the time he comes into the NFL and still be set up for a legendary pro career. Rodgers ranks No. 1 all-time in the NFL with a dominant 8.44. Guess who's second? Wilson, at 8.09. Guess who's fourth? Young, at 7.94. How Tagovailoa manages to profile with the best in college and pro history is one thing, but matching well with quarterbacks of similar body type is a bonus.

TD to INT ratio

There has been a lot of talk of Tagovailoa's immense ceiling. But let's stay somewhat semi-grounded to explore his floor. Naming the college quarterback who holds the record for most passing attempts with an interception in a single season is much harder than any of the previous mini quizzes.

The answer is Matt Blundin, who posted these season-long stats for Virginia in only nine games in 1991: 135 of 224 passing, 1,902 yards, 19 touchdowns, no interceptions, 60.3 completion percentage, 10.2 adjusted yards per attempt, 159.6 passer rating. Blundin parlayed that standout work as a senior — and his 6-6, 233-pound frame — into being drafted in the second round by the Chiefs.

Blundin's NFL career was over before it really started, but let's applaud just how long he has lasted with his unique college distinction to further appreciate Tagovailoa. The only reason Tagovailoa might not duplicate Blundin's feat is that he's so darn explosive and efficient.

Based on Tagovailoa's average of only 19 attempts per game, it would take him almost four more games to match Blundin's attempts without an interception. Alabama's next four games consist of LSU, Mississippi State, The Citadel and Auburn. Tagovailoa still has to play a bowl game as well, not to mention a potential SEC championship game berth or run in the College Football Playoff.

While it would be cool to see Tagovailoa hit 40-plus touchdowns without throwing an interception this season, that's just gravy in the grand scheme. The other numbers should still carry him to a Heisman landslide if he can stay healthy. His 2018 stats, combined with all his other tangibles and intangibles, also correspond with him delivering at a high level in the NFL for the long term.

 

[Skipz]

Taking a look over in tigerdroppings, there are some very reasonable fans there who understand what Tua can do, and how special this offense is.

But the vast majority have the same mantra--"Bama hasn't played anybody," "they haven't seen db's like ours--we're the top backfield in the country," "Tua is putting up those stats on trash defenses."

And they seriously believe it. Granted, our defense isn't top 5 like usual (yet), but they just got through a game with ms. state where they scored ONE touchdown. And that was because of a turnover they got inside the 5. And it took 3 tries to punch it in. For some reason I see score predictions for an LSU win like 30-27. I just don't get it. The LSU scores from the last 8 times these two teams met: 10,0,16,13,17,17,0, and the last time LSU won, 9-6.

One of these two fanbases is in for a rude awakening. I really believe LSU is overrated and has had the benefit of playing what turned out to be a much weaker schedule than predicted pre-season. I wouldn't be shocked to see Tua throw a pick in this game. But LSU outscoring Alabama? I might have a better chance of hitting the lottery tonight.

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

Alabama at LSU kickoff time, TV channel announced for Week 10

Good recap on all the injuries for The King this season ....Up to date ...there will be a quiz so study

 

[TerryP]

 

[rick4bama]

Don't we love these Black, White out? Bama has won then all!

 

[JoshB]

Anyone hear Saban's comments about Tua wanted to please everyone but he needs to learn to say "no" more? Thought that was kind of odd. Wonder what thats about.