🏈 GAME THREAD Alabama visits LSU on Saturday night

[TerryP]

Record when both teams are ranked: Alabama leads, 18-8-1
Record when both teams are in the top 10: Alabama leads, 9-2-0

Caught these numbers from PrideoftheTide (good follow on Twitter.)

• LSU is 2-13-1 vs the AP No. 1
• 1-8-1 at Tiger Stadium
• When Alabama faces LSU in two weeks, it will be the 25th time UA comes into the game undefeated. Alabama has won 20 times. Lost in '51, '05, and '11. Tied in '27.
• Alabama is 4-0 vs LSU at Tiger Stadium when ranked no. 1

 

[bama alum]

I know there's another thread re: Devin White, but here in relation to Bama...Was Raekwon Davis really missed in the first half? I'm not meaning to downplay his importance, but Williams and Buggs played lights out

Interestingly enough, there were several occasions where I saw UT doubling Mathis in the first half freeing up Williams and Buggs--just like with Davis.

So, yes, but no.

I get what you're saying, which is I why I said I wasn't downplaying his importance. With Davis on the defensive line, it's just like opposing DCs having to face the prospect of Ruggs, Smitty, Waddle, and Smith, Jr. on the field. Someone's going to have a free run. Pick your poison.

 

[Sgt. Lincoln Osiris]

Oh dear God...

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

I know there's another thread re: Devin White, but here in relation to Bama...Was Raekwon Davis really missed in the first half? I'm not meaning to downplay his importance, but Williams and Buggs played lights out

Interestingly enough, there were several occasions where I saw UT doubling Mathis in the first half freeing up Williams and Buggs--just like with Davis.

So, yes, but no.

I get what you're saying, which is I why I said I wasn't downplaying his importance. With Davis on the defensive line, it's just like opposing DCs having to face the prospect of Ruggs, Smitty, Waddle, and Smith, Jr. on the field. Someone's going to have a free run. Pick your poison.

Can Bama's OL get a stalemate with the LSU DL thus giving #13 time to look around and have some success. If Bama gets to 34 we win. Aranda will have a solid plan to counter #13 and he has the DB's to make it difficult for the passing game.

Ten Bears has the Tigers winning in a close game. His thinking is Bama will make some costly turnovers that decide the game. Hard to believe a guy wearing blue makeup and has a ponytail. We'll see.

 

[TUSKtimes]

Can Bama's OL get a stalemate with the LSU DL thus giving #13 time to look around and have some success. If Bama gets to 34 we win. Aranda will have a solid plan to counter #13 and he has the DB's to make it difficult for the passing game.

Ten Bears has the Tigers winning in a close game. His thinking is Bama will make some costly turnovers that decide the game. Hard to believe a guy wearing blue makeup and has a ponytail. We'll see.

Has Ten Bears given any thought to how the tiger offense is going to score enough points to keep up? It's been a very spotty OL that has had to reinvent itself almost every game. These are not vintage running backs and the receivers are serviceable at best. They have an upgrade at QB and a better scheme to work out of as opposed to last year. It's going to take an outstanding team on both sides of the LOS to get this Tide.

 

[rocknthefreeworld]

I keep hearing how Tua hasn't had to play a whole game yet and that is going to be a problem against LSU. Or how Tua will not be able to launch long passes and have to rely on short routes. I can only figure that the talking heads have to talk about something so they picked the only thing they can grab hold of. It isn't like Tua has come out because he is gassed or something. And the last chart I can find is 2 weeks old, but it shows Tua had the most yards (212) and was 9-9 passing to the right at 0-9 yards. Matter of fact, his passing from 0-9, 10-19, and 20+ was all around the same total yardage (400-450) even if the YPA was different. Yeah, talking heads.

 

[planomateo]

I love when they say he hasn't played in a high stakes game...for real?!?!?!?

 

[TerryP]

Can Bama's OL get a stalemate with the LSU DL thus giving #13 time to look around and have some success. If Bama gets to 34 we win. Aranda will have a solid plan to counter #13 and he has the DB's to make it difficult for the passing game.

There's a question we really can't answer until Sunday after next. The season thus far points to Bama winning that battle--not coming to a stalemate. We could delve into the numbers and rankings and they'll lead us to believe Bama wins this one.

Cursory look: Bama has a better defense now than LSU and has faced better offenses. If we were to judge group against group, Bama is going to get the nod in my eyes. When it comes to offenses, Bama is in a league LSU can only dream of.

@TUSKtimes really hits the nail on the head. While the two defenses remain close to each other, there's no comparison to the improvement Bama has seen on offense. And, let me point this out. You'll hear how the offense at LSU is revamped and a bigger threat than it has been in the past.

That's simply not true.

IE: Passing offense rankings averages under Orgeron's group would put them in the mid-90's in D1 play. Miles passing offense graded a little better--we're comparing a rank of 93-94 to a rank of 90. Their rushing offense has digressed under Orgeron.

They'll never admit it, but the numbers reflect just that. They aren't any better on offense--in fact, a little worse.

 

[UAgrad93]

@TerryP , just to piggy back off of your post, LSwho ranks 47th in rushing offense at 190.63 ypg, 103rd in passing offense at 193.0 ypg, and 85th in total offenseat 383.6 ypg. Those aren't very intimidating!!!!

 

[TerryP]

FWIW, I just heard Peter Burns say that Vegas has the line at Bama -14. Here's what crazy to me. That matches the line that we'd see right if Bama and LSU were playing on a neutral field.

Bookmakers have said this year they've over inflated the lines on Bama. Here, with this game, they're doing the same. It's as if they aren't giving LSU any home field advantage.

 

[TerryP]

@TerryP , just to piggy back off of your post, LSwho ranks 47th in rushing offense at 190.63 ypg, 103rd in passing offense at 193.0 ypg, and 85th in total offenseat 383.6 ypg. Those aren't very intimidating!!!!

It's no more intimidating of an offense than it was with Miles. I put these together last night for another discussion. Orgeron numbers in bold.

2018 - 103rd in passing offense
2017 - 84th
2016 - 101st
2015 - 106th
2014 - 116th
2013 - 45th
2012 - 94th
2011 - 106th.


Rushing offense -
2018 - 47th
2017 - 28th
2016 - 21st
2015 - 7th
2014 - 25th
2013 - 29th
2012- 52nd
2011- 22nd

 

[utstnx]

i believe the line will be somewhere between 17-21. Heres the thing...would you make a bet for Bama to beat LSU by more than 21? I would not. I believe Bama will win but this is the best team they will have played.

 

[TerryP]

i believe the line will be somewhere between 17-21

That would mean Vegas is inflating the line by five to nine points (based on today's rankings/standings. However, they've been doing that with a few Bama games this season so it's not unexpected if they do.

A Mississippi State win this weekend should drop the line a bit...we'll have to wait and see how their opponents, as well as Bama's, do this weekend.

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

I think Bama will have to contribute to their own defeat with mistakes/turnovers and that happens. My glass is always half empty. I am hopeful that #13 is still standing when the final whistle blows and if so I think The King wins in a really close game.

Bama 34 LSU 27

 

[UAgrad93]

I can see this as easily a 13-15 point spread. Tigahs pedestrian offense and the fact that Shrek is on their sideline could be more.

 

[Sgt. Lincoln Osiris]

Pfft. Y'all giving way to much credit to LSWho's D.

From what I've seen, it's nowhere near as good as UGA's was last year in the title game.

They have no answer for Tua. No one does..

I'm calling it big, 42-17.

 

[Sgt. Lincoln Osiris]

 

[Sgt. Lincoln Osiris]

This really sucks for Jalen.

But, this also means Tua will probably play most of the game too.

So I'm changing my original prediction.

Bama big, 52-17

 

[94 Grad]

Did White play in the LSU vs UF game? Asking for a friend...

 

[94 Grad]

If Bama gets to 34 we win.

Do you honestly think LSU will score 33 points on our D? They only put up 19 vs MSU and UF....