In my opinion he did overachieve in 2021: finished in the top 20.
Consider this:
In his first year at WVU he won the conference: Big East. The next season they moved to the Big 12 and they were fighting, on average, for the fourth and fifth place conference finish. He finished with roughly a .670 winning percentage.
He goes to Houston where they won seven games in his first two years and then the 8-0 conference campaign in '21 followed by another five win conference record:
in the American.
Now, Houston heads to ... the Big 12. While he has a better record to date at Houston, now he's looking at several teams with the same talent level (most of them better
which in the end still isn't that good.
I just don't see this happening ...
2023 Houston schedule:
I'll have to look to see if I'm right here but I'll venture a guess. When the 'books are looking at over/under win totals they'll put Houston at 4.5. I can see four wins if things fall right. Five is overachieving. (It's probably going to be a +$, bet, know what mean?) IF A&M falls flat, I don't see them looking at a five win coach. Hell, six wins puts him in the running for Big12 coach of the year.