It's not simple math, but you'll get the picture, I hope. That's (bolded above) really the only question left answering; is the Tide an
overall one seed.
We'd have to see some big upsets and total crashes for the Tide to fall off the one line. There's just too much difference right now in the brackets (97) between Bama, Houston, and Kansas versus the two seeds (#5 & #6 overall.)
Look at UCLA. Their average seeding is 1.78 as the #5 overall. They're a #1 seed in 21 of the 97 brackets. Looking at Purdue's 1.23 average they're listed as a #2 seed in 20 of the 97 brackets.
A crash and burn would be Purdue losing in the first round of their conference tournament and UCLA winning theirs—slim on both counts.
Where does that leave Bama? Just looking at the point differentials, it would take two losses and a first round loss to see them dropping to a #2 seed. The resume is simply too strong.
By seed, your current hypothetical Sweet 16.
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