š Say you are ESPN. Where do you take College GameDay in week two? Clemson vs A&M or LSU vs Texas?
- Thread starter Max
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BAMAneck
Member
Iām going LSU vs Texas . I think the way Georgia got āhandledā by the horns , that this game has a much better chance of being competitive. I also think that the media has been waiting on the horns to return to prominence so the narrative will be all about that . Iām not saying that the other game canāt be competitive because I saw last years game but this year is in Clemson and if aTm makes a slip or two itās game over . We saw that when BAMA got out of position it cost us big time and it could slip away from the aggies very quickly and I donāt think they want to haft to put the game in Monds Hands to haft to win it .
BAMAneck
Member
Well you know they will build Boston college or Syracuse as a must see game because of the fact you just stated . Hen WE all know that if either were in the SEC they would be 9th or 10th at best as far as best team in the conference .
JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
Member
Clemson should get the call since they're the man and Jimbo's bunch will be getting some hype as well. Both games should be really good so ESPN can't go wrong on their choice.
BamaFan334
Member
I think you go LSU-Texas. They love the 'Texas Is Back' BS. With LSU coming off a solid season and with a quarterback that is manageable for the second straight season, it leads for a solid storyline. Add in both teams not playing each other ever and it will be big.
Texas A&M may very well beat Clemson, I personally will take A&M that weekend, but I just like the LSU-Texas game better.
Texas A&M may very well beat Clemson, I personally will take A&M that weekend, but I just like the LSU-Texas game better.
planomateo
Member
Isn't it Texas A&M vs Clemson? This is the game I'd go to.
TerryP
Staff
I was reading over some statistics yesterday and one of the things that caught my eye is the percentage of teams that regress after improvement in one season. While I think a lot of LSU's success last year is over-hyped, it's doubly so with Texas. If I recall correctly, the number hovered around 75% they have a worst season in '19 than their improvement in '19.
BamaFan334
Member
I doubt LSU wins 10 games this year. I was able to see success last year before the season as I was a big supporter of their abilities, but I think they will lose one or two more games this season. Unlike most, I actually like the Cookie Monster, so his success is fine with me, but obviously not against us.
TerryP
Staff
@BamaFan334, it's a season where it's tempting to look at Texas and say that should give us an indication of what they'll field. But, as soon as I finish that thought I consider how dangerous a team like Georgia State can be to open 2019. What if LSU can't stop the run? Imagine a scenario where we see GSU be this years App State (vs Michigan.)
( @50+yeartidefan you mentioned UofSC in another thread, don't sleep on their game with App State this year. )
You can look at their schedule and see a worse case scenario with LSU being 4-4 headed into their game with Bama.
At best, I can see 7-1 (L's to one-- UF, AU, Texas, and even Georgia Southern.)
My gut says 6-2 conference play, 9-3 regular season. The get a big break hosting UF, AU, and A&M in Baton Rouge.
( @50+yeartidefan you mentioned UofSC in another thread, don't sleep on their game with App State this year. )
You can look at their schedule and see a worse case scenario with LSU being 4-4 headed into their game with Bama.
At best, I can see 7-1 (L's to one-- UF, AU, Texas, and even Georgia Southern.)
My gut says 6-2 conference play, 9-3 regular season. The get a big break hosting UF, AU, and A&M in Baton Rouge.
BamaFan334
Member
I can get on that train. Georgia State will not pose a threat, and Georgia Southern just isn't the old Georgia Southern, so I wonder if they can actually hang for three quarters and put themselves into a good situation. I sure hope they beat Texas though. I know folks here hate saying "I pull for the SEC", but I definitely want LSU to smoke Texas and put Herman, Elingher, and the rest of the Bevos in their spot. It will not make any of us look good if Texas can beat Georgia and LSU, supposedly our #2 and #3 best teams, back to back like that, regardless of the excuses Georgia continues to make.
The Texas vs LSU is intriguing. For special ed to keep the purple train moving he needs this win. But I think it's going to be harder to come by than last year's Miami opener. I think the game being played in Austin is making this one a pick-em. The rest of their schedule lines up nice. They finally get to play a home game against the gators and the barn just can't win in BR. And I'm still not sure what the New Orleans offense is going to look like on the tigers in the heat of SEC play. 5 wide, OK.
TerryP
Staff
2019: Week Two - LSU -3 (100) vs Texas (-120) O/U 53Ā½
www.rolltidebama.com
Your oddsmakers are looking at last years results for Texas a lot more skeptically than the '18 LSU record (which is full of question marks itself.)
To me, here's where it gets interesting. If we look at the Vegas Power Polls (which determine point spreads) and specifically look at Brad Powers index LSU would be favored by by at least 10 (93.21 vs 82.33.) On the same note, ESPN FPI puts the spread about the same (21.7 vs 10. for an 11.5.)
But, we're seeing LSU giving three to Texas. That's a dangerous line to play right now and I can only think it's a sucker bet. I'd take LSU and the three they're giving today.
But then again, if they drop that opener ...
It's a valid question but sort of sub-text with me. I'm wondering how we'll see the decision making turn out. Is it Orgeron, Ensminger, or Brady that's running the offense?
Just as a comparison, do you remember back in '07 with Major and Pendry? Pendry was there, thank god, to reel in some of Major's "fly by night" ideas. How Orgeron and Ensminger are going to respond to Brady wanting to sling it around with a five wide set? Which brings us back to Georgia Southern ...
Five wides are great when you have the football. If I'm GSU, I'm all about clock control.
This is why I don't bet. Texas lost 8 guys off their defense and it's not getting a lot of press with the Herman hype train running wide open this off-season. That was a very senior group that beat the dawgs. Is LSU going to sorta run the 5 wide? They are setting up shop like their WR coach is calling the shots. I don't even know what that could look like. I might be tempted to take LSU in a pick-em, but I'm not giving the Longhorns a field goal. Too many unknowns.
TerryP
Staff
You see, here's where questions come into play. I'd bet there are other reasons you don't wager on sports. Why?
Because below you've just broken down why there are holes in the wager value of this game.
Combining what you've just mentioned on the Longhorns with this ...
Note the margin of victory, and against whom, eight of their nine regular season wins came by ... touchdown, or less. Is it something to build on? As mentioned earlier, teams that show improvement jumps like Texas did last season maintain that level of play roughly 25% of the time. It's possible, with one of four teams.
HOWEVER, that has nothing to do with the game on this site. No reason not to join.
If I do I would let LSU and Texas get through the first game and see where the dust settles. Would also be interesting to see where the line moves, though not much wiggle room either way.
50+yeartidefan
Member
You got the national champs and a shot at reminding all how they trashed bama and nick is washed up.
So Clemson. No doubt
So Clemson. No doubt
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