| FTBL Playoff Rankings - Updates & Discussion (With one week left, Bama is ranked at #11)

[TerryP]

If Texas beats UGA, handing them their 3rd lose of the season, could it come down to Us and them for the final playoff spot with us knocking them out due to head to head? Heh, 2 years in a row. Long shot, but one can dream.

Brandon touched on this subject the other day which coincides with what you say, "long shot."

I don't see the committee taking less than four SEC teams. Remember, when they came up with this format the original idea for the P2 was four spots. Others said no and that's what gave us the two year contract.

 

[TerryP]

Texas has a better shot at UGA playing Arch instead of Ewers (hobbled)… Arch more mobile… Mobile qbs is what beats Kirby’s defense..

...and ironically, playing Arch led to UGA scoring.

 

[Kamikazi18627]

I see the odds and hear all of the head-to-head stuff.

I think this really comes down to how SMU and Clemson go. If SMU beats Clemson, I think we are in. If Clemson wins, I don't think we are. I don't know if the Georgia Texas game will really matter that much.

 

[Bammerboy321]

Still irritates me that we would already be locked in if we don't suffer a loss to Vanderbilt. Just an inexcusable loss. Deboer's has to get his team and staff to bring it 24/7. You cannot beat a team like Georgia and follow it up with a loss to a team that got beat by LSU, Missouri, and Georgia State. Even Ball State held them to 24.

Oh well.

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

Brandon touched on this subject the other day which coincides with what you say, "long shot."

I don't see the committee taking less than four SEC teams. Remember, when they came up with this format the original idea for the P2 was four spots. Others said no and that's what gave us the two year contract.

This. Said it several times, this year, and last (when there was fretting over FSU knocking Bama out)... Sankey looms large over that room. The power and influence of his decisions (made up in part by SEC AD's, coaches, presidents) rivals Thor's hammer. And while I don't think he's going to overtly exert influence in an area where he believes things are already fair, there's no doubt that if you take the top 12 teams in the nation... the best 12, the SEC would have at least 4 amongst them. More if we're being honest. So basically, it would be smart for everyone who wants a seat at the table to recognize that. If they choose instead to make some power play and reward lesser teams while shutting out more deserving SEC teams, then they greatly risk losing such opportunities altogether going forward in the evolving world of college football.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

This. Said it several times, this year, and last (when there was fretting over FSU knocking Bama out)... Sankey looms large over that room. The power and influence of his decisions (made up in part by SEC AD's, coaches, presidents) rivals Thor's hammer. And while I don't think he's going to overtly exert influence in an area where he believes things are already fair, there's no doubt that if you take the top 12 teams in the nation... the best 12, the SEC would have at least 4 amongst them. More if we're being honest. So basically, it would be smart for everyone who wants a seat at the table to recognize that. If they choose instead to make some power play and reward lesser teams while shutting out more deserving SEC teams, then they greatly risk losing such opportunities altogether going forward in the evolving world of college football.

Right. Schedule is everything. Almost anyway.
And we played a p4 in Wisconsin at Wisconsin

But if u weaken schedule. Might win one more. Crazy.
See where we land tonight. I guess at 11

 

[Rolltide24]

Makes sense. If we happen to get the nod, we can’t go and crap the bed. Last year we played a very real table game against Michigan when a lot of folks thought we shouldn’t be in. We don’t need to lose the first game for a second straight year when getting in by the skin of our teeth. They say they only look at this years performance, but based on the weight you note Sankey carrying, that’s coming from past performances and history of success. We need to show we deserved that spot, if chosen for it. At least in my opinion. With some time to prepare, I believe CKD would have them ready.

 

[TerryP]

As a non-wagerer, does this mean the sharps believe are chances of making the playoffs are increasing?

I don't see the public moving a line like that.

I sorta expected this. Yes, sharps have had their say in how the line has moved. However, this is what Reuters reports:

The Crimson Tide are receiving more than 85 percent of the total bets in the market at FanDuel and more than 92 percent of the action at ESPNBet.​

Alabama also has +1500 national championship odds at FanDuel and BetMGM, ahead of Tennessee (+1800), SMU (+3200), Indiana (+4000) and Arizona State (+8000).​

The national title favorites as of Tuesday morning were Oregon (+350), Texas (+380), Ohio State (+400) and Georgia (+550).​

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Makes sense. If we happen to get the nod, we can’t go and crap the bed. Last year we played a very real table game against Michigan when a lot of folks thought we shouldn’t be in. We don’t need to lose the first game for a second straight year when getting in by the skin of our teeth. They say they only look at this years performance, but based on the weight you note Sankey carrying, that’s coming from past performances and history of success. We need to show we deserved that spot, if chosen for it. At least in my opinion. With some time to prepare, I believe CKD would have them ready.

And if not. Somebody needs to send the bama team and coaches a full game film of the Oklahoma game.... better not hear a bit of bitching

 

[50+yeartidefan]

St

I sorta expected this. Yes, sharps have had their say in how the line has moved. However, this is what Reuters reports:

The Crimson Tide are receiving more than 85 percent of the total bets in the market at FanDuel and more than 92 percent of the action at ESPNBet.​

Alabama also has +1500 national championship odds at FanDuel and BetMGM, ahead of Tennessee (+1800), SMU (+3200), Indiana (+4000) and Arizona State (+8000).​

The national title favorites as of Tuesday morning were Oregon (+350), Texas (+380), Ohio State (+400) and Georgia (+550).​

Still got my "bama wins it all" ticket. Bought in September.

 

[Nothing_But_A_Winner00]

Alabama also has +1500 national championship odds at FanDuel and BetMGM

Has moved from +2000 to +1900 just today on DraftKings if one is so inclined.

 

[TerryP]

Has moved from +2000 to +1900 just today on DraftKings if one is so inclined.

+1500 (title) at Caesar's right now...

 

[TerryP]

https://espnbet.com/exclusives/section/specials

 

[TerryP]

He threw three INT's against TX the last game:

 

[TerryP]

 

[RTB X Bot]

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

Bama has the 7th best odds of winning the whole thing. IMO, it's more about the likelihood of them getting in at this point. If I recall, there was a similar shift overnight last year before the final announcement that left FSU out.

FWIW, I was just reminded by someone, and I'll defer to him on this, that the betting odds actually slid heavily into FSU's favor in the overnight hours last year before the CFP reveal show. I distinctly remember ESPN having FSU with 97% odds of getting in the morning of the rankings reval, I still have a screengrab of that somewhere that I look at to brighten up cloudy days. But I remembered wrong on the betting odds apparently.

 

[alabama mike]

Still irritates me that we would already be locked in if we don't suffer a loss to Vanderbilt. Just an inexcusable loss. Deboer's has to get his team and staff to bring it 24/7. You cannot beat a team like Georgia and follow it up with a loss to a team that got beat by LSU, Missouri, and Georgia State. Even Ball State held them to 24.

Oh well.

Add Oklahoma to that inexcusable loss. I don’t blame CKD as much as I do the assistant coaches and players.

 

[mando]

Add Oklahoma to that inexcusable loss. I don’t blame CKD as much as I do the assistant coaches and players.

Maybe you can explain this comment? CKD is the head man so does he not set the tone?

 

[bamatommy]

Win your games and then there is no having to debate it. Bama did not get it done nor did Ole Miss... Live with it. Get better.

Amen