As for this year, the emergence of Trent Richardson and the fact he missed the first two weeks probably wiped his Heisman campaign out before it truly got started. He will be talked about all season if he continues to produce simply because he won last year. He will have another good season but I don't see Saban moving back to a heavy dose of Ingram when Richardson has run so well, especially in Mark's absence. Trent has earned PT. I think at the end of the season when all things come into play, it would be difficult for Mark to win the vote due to the number of carries. That being said, he may well end up a top ten and could possibly still earn an invite to NY but ultimately I think he will repeat Tebow's formula and watch someone else win it.
As for next year, I think he's as good as gone if the labor agreement gets squared away before too late. He's won a title, he's won a Heisman--as a competitor he won't have anything left to prove unless he clings to the fact that he has to do it again and with regards to the Heisman, the odds are certainly stacked against him.
On a side note, didn't I hear a sound bite from Saban a year or so ago (talking about Rolo, I believe) where he says he encourages his players to think very seriously about making the jump to the NFL based on how well the project in the draft? I don't think there is much of an argument that even if Ingram goes out after this year he will be the first back taken in the draft. He's already had a knee surgery, minor as it may be it will weigh heavily into his decision. He plays one of the most contact-prone positions on the field and that will take its toll eventually. Assuming that Ingram will only leave if he's projected to be a top ten pick...
Looking at the worst teams in the NFL through five weeks, he figures to be a very, very high draft pick. The Bills, Lions and Panthers are currently winless. The Bills have Lynch so they probably wouldn't go after anyone. The Lions could use someone better than Best. Williams and Stewart have been underwhelming in Carolina this year. McFadden is coming on in Oakland but Al Davis is an odd ball so ya never know. The 49ers and Browns could both use him as well. So of the bottom six teams in the league, five could conceivably find themselves a need for a consistent, hard-nosed back. I know most Bama fans probably want him to stay but looking at those odds he may cost himself millions if something catastrophic happens next season.
