Max
Member
Here's a Q and A on the subject:
Kevin writes:
“So when watching the Playoff rankings reveal on Tuesday night, when they released the #16-20 and #21-25 portions and I saw that Minnesota had dropped all the way to #18 by getting blown out at home I thought to myself “Holy shit, they just dropped Michigan from the rankings!”
That’s the only thing that would have made sense to me. Minnesota lost at home by 21 and dropped 10 spots and Michigan lost at home by more. They release the #11-15 portion and my immediate reaction is “Wow, Alabama got fucked big time for losing by 3 at Auburn” and then I see Michigan’s #14 ranking and I was so confused I didn’t know how to react. How is dropping them by 1 spot even remotely possible when Alabama drops seven spots?
I saw your tweets and the conspiracy theory around intentionally trying to keep Ohio St at #1 seems to be implausible to me but who knows. I’m curious- what do you think would be the committee’s motivation behind that? What would want to make them keep Ohio St in the top spot so badly over LSU?”
I don’t think the committee has a motive, but I think individual members of the committee can be overvaluing a conference in an effort to ensure a conference’s top team is number one overall. And this year being number one overall matters a great deal because it might well be the difference between having to play Clemson in Arizona or Utah, Oregon or Baylor in Atlanta.
That’s the difference between a toss up game and one you’re favored in by a touchdown or more.
Given that the Big Ten hasn’t even scored a point in the playoff since 2014, I can see a couple of committee members trying to protect the Buckeyes here and give them a (much) easier road to the title.
Let me explain what I see comparing the college football playoff committee rankings with the AP poll and the coaches poll.
First, remember, the college football playoff committee is just a poll too. So it’s not much different than the AP and coaches poll. The biggest difference is that the AP and coaches polls have more voters, so each individual ballot is weighed less heavily in those polls, compared to the college football playoff committee’s.
In other words, it’s much easier for the college football playoff committee poll to be impacted by a couple of people’s decisions than it would be in the AP or coaches poll.
So let’s compare the respective rankings of the top SEC and Big Ten teams in all three polls:
Ohio State is 2 in both the AP and coaches polls, but first in the playoff poll. So Ohio State is a net +1 in the college football playoff rankings.
LSU is number one in the AP and coaches polls, but second in the playoff poll. So LSU is a net -1
Georgia is ranked fourth in both polls so there is no difference there.
Wisconsin is ranked eighth in the CFB playoff poll, but they are tenth in the AP and coaches polls. So Wisconsin is +2 in the college football poll.
Penn State is tenth in the CFB playoff poll, but the Nittany Lions are 12th in the AP poll and 11th in the coaches poll. So Penn State is +1.5.
Finally, Michigan is 14th in the CFB playoff rankings, but the Wolverines are 17 in the AP poll and 18 in the coaches poll, meaning Michigan is +3.5 in the playoff poll.
Now let’s do the rest of the SEC teams.
Florida is ninth in the CFB playoff poll, but the Gators are 7th in both the AP and the coaches poll. So the Gators are -2 in the CFB playoff rankings.
Alabama is 12th in the playoff poll, but the Tide are 9th in the AP poll and 9th in the coaches poll. So the Tide are -3 in the CFB playoff rankings.
Finally, Auburn is 11th in the playoff poll, but the Tigers are 11th in the AP and 12th in the coaches poll, leading to a +.5 ranking.
If you add this all up Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan are ranked eight spots higher, collectively, in the college football playoff committee rankings than they are in either the AP or coaches poll. The SEC’s teams: LSU, Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn are ranked 5.5 spots lower, collectively.
That’s a massive 13.5 spot swing in the Big Ten’s favor and at the SEC’s expense in the college football playoff committee’s rankings compared to the AP and coaches polls.
And here’s an easy example of this swing that, to me, defies explanation: Michigan lost by 29 to Ohio State at home and dropped one spot in the playoff rankings. Alabama lost by three on the road at Auburn and dropped seven spots.
How is it possible from a rational perspective?
Here’s another example: Minnesota, which doesn’t impact Ohio State’s playoff standing, dropped ten spots, from 8 to 18 after losing to Wisconsin, while Wisconsin, who will be playing in the Big Ten title game against Ohio State, rose four spots. So in the space of one week based on one game we saw a 14 point move between Wisconsin and Minnesota. If Minnesota’s not very good, why did Wisconsin surge so much by beating them? And how in the world can the committee justify Minnesota being eight spots behind a team they beat, Penn State, with the exact same record?
Now maybe it’s just coincidental that the Big Ten is massively overvalued and the SEC is massively undervalued in the college football playoff committee poll compared to the AP and coaches polls.
But when someone benefits immensely from the rankings, I tend to think it’s intentional rather than coincidental. Remember, it’s not just that the Big Ten is benefiting, it’s that the Big Ten is benefiting at the SEC’s expense. The result is Ohio State’s four best wins — Wisconsin (twice if they win the conference title game), Penn State, and Michigan look not that much different in the college football playoff committee’s poll than LSU’s top four wins — Georgia (if they win the SEC title game), Florida, Auburn and Alabama.
Instead of LSU beating the number 4, 7, 9, and 11 teams, as they would have done in the AP and coaches polls, LSU has beaten the number 4, 9, 11 and 12 teams.
And, significantly, instead of Ohio State having beaten the number 10, 11, and 17 teams, they’ve beaten the number 8, 10, and 14 teams.
The result? The committee can look at their rankings and say the top wins of LSU and Ohio State are comparable, when that isn’t really the case in the AP or coaches polls.
Ohio State will finish without a single top ten win, potentially, in the AP and coaches polls, while LSU would finish with three top ten wins, and maybe four, in the AP and and coaches polls.
Yet much of that difference is wiped clean in the playoff poll.
I’m not sure which three or four members on the committee are making this decision — remember that’s all it could take on a 12 or 13 person committee — but we don’t see the ballots so there’s no way to analyze who is overvaluing the Big Ten substantially over the SEC.
My biggest issue with the college football playoff committee in general is it’s just another poll.
And if there’s a poll involved I’d rather have more people voting than less people voting. So I’d rather have a 100+ people voting in the AP and the coaches poll combined than I would 12 or 13 — less than that with recusals — in the college football playoff committee.
Why?
Because one individual college playoff committee voter has far more power than one individual voter does in the AP or coaches polls.
Plus, and I think this is key, the AP and the coaches polls release the full votes of every voter at the end of the year. So you might not agree with the voting, but there is full transparency.
The college football playoff committee doesn’t release their polls.
So if you have a rig job in effect, you’d never be able to see it.
My final point: we don’t know who is doing it, but the evidence is pretty clear here: the college football playoff committee is drastically overvaluing the Big Ten teams at the expense of the SEC teams when you compare the rankings of the AP and coaches polls with their own playoff rankings.
And the biggest winner is Ohio State.
And the biggest loser is LSU.
All with a number one playoff seed on the line.
Maybe that’s totally coincidental.
But I’m not buying it.
Kevin writes:
“So when watching the Playoff rankings reveal on Tuesday night, when they released the #16-20 and #21-25 portions and I saw that Minnesota had dropped all the way to #18 by getting blown out at home I thought to myself “Holy shit, they just dropped Michigan from the rankings!”
That’s the only thing that would have made sense to me. Minnesota lost at home by 21 and dropped 10 spots and Michigan lost at home by more. They release the #11-15 portion and my immediate reaction is “Wow, Alabama got fucked big time for losing by 3 at Auburn” and then I see Michigan’s #14 ranking and I was so confused I didn’t know how to react. How is dropping them by 1 spot even remotely possible when Alabama drops seven spots?
I saw your tweets and the conspiracy theory around intentionally trying to keep Ohio St at #1 seems to be implausible to me but who knows. I’m curious- what do you think would be the committee’s motivation behind that? What would want to make them keep Ohio St in the top spot so badly over LSU?”
I don’t think the committee has a motive, but I think individual members of the committee can be overvaluing a conference in an effort to ensure a conference’s top team is number one overall. And this year being number one overall matters a great deal because it might well be the difference between having to play Clemson in Arizona or Utah, Oregon or Baylor in Atlanta.
That’s the difference between a toss up game and one you’re favored in by a touchdown or more.
Given that the Big Ten hasn’t even scored a point in the playoff since 2014, I can see a couple of committee members trying to protect the Buckeyes here and give them a (much) easier road to the title.
Let me explain what I see comparing the college football playoff committee rankings with the AP poll and the coaches poll.
First, remember, the college football playoff committee is just a poll too. So it’s not much different than the AP and coaches poll. The biggest difference is that the AP and coaches polls have more voters, so each individual ballot is weighed less heavily in those polls, compared to the college football playoff committee’s.
In other words, it’s much easier for the college football playoff committee poll to be impacted by a couple of people’s decisions than it would be in the AP or coaches poll.
So let’s compare the respective rankings of the top SEC and Big Ten teams in all three polls:
Ohio State is 2 in both the AP and coaches polls, but first in the playoff poll. So Ohio State is a net +1 in the college football playoff rankings.
LSU is number one in the AP and coaches polls, but second in the playoff poll. So LSU is a net -1
Georgia is ranked fourth in both polls so there is no difference there.
Wisconsin is ranked eighth in the CFB playoff poll, but they are tenth in the AP and coaches polls. So Wisconsin is +2 in the college football poll.
Penn State is tenth in the CFB playoff poll, but the Nittany Lions are 12th in the AP poll and 11th in the coaches poll. So Penn State is +1.5.
Finally, Michigan is 14th in the CFB playoff rankings, but the Wolverines are 17 in the AP poll and 18 in the coaches poll, meaning Michigan is +3.5 in the playoff poll.
Now let’s do the rest of the SEC teams.
Florida is ninth in the CFB playoff poll, but the Gators are 7th in both the AP and the coaches poll. So the Gators are -2 in the CFB playoff rankings.
Alabama is 12th in the playoff poll, but the Tide are 9th in the AP poll and 9th in the coaches poll. So the Tide are -3 in the CFB playoff rankings.
Finally, Auburn is 11th in the playoff poll, but the Tigers are 11th in the AP and 12th in the coaches poll, leading to a +.5 ranking.
If you add this all up Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan are ranked eight spots higher, collectively, in the college football playoff committee rankings than they are in either the AP or coaches poll. The SEC’s teams: LSU, Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn are ranked 5.5 spots lower, collectively.
That’s a massive 13.5 spot swing in the Big Ten’s favor and at the SEC’s expense in the college football playoff committee’s rankings compared to the AP and coaches polls.
And here’s an easy example of this swing that, to me, defies explanation: Michigan lost by 29 to Ohio State at home and dropped one spot in the playoff rankings. Alabama lost by three on the road at Auburn and dropped seven spots.
How is it possible from a rational perspective?
Here’s another example: Minnesota, which doesn’t impact Ohio State’s playoff standing, dropped ten spots, from 8 to 18 after losing to Wisconsin, while Wisconsin, who will be playing in the Big Ten title game against Ohio State, rose four spots. So in the space of one week based on one game we saw a 14 point move between Wisconsin and Minnesota. If Minnesota’s not very good, why did Wisconsin surge so much by beating them? And how in the world can the committee justify Minnesota being eight spots behind a team they beat, Penn State, with the exact same record?
Now maybe it’s just coincidental that the Big Ten is massively overvalued and the SEC is massively undervalued in the college football playoff committee poll compared to the AP and coaches polls.
But when someone benefits immensely from the rankings, I tend to think it’s intentional rather than coincidental. Remember, it’s not just that the Big Ten is benefiting, it’s that the Big Ten is benefiting at the SEC’s expense. The result is Ohio State’s four best wins — Wisconsin (twice if they win the conference title game), Penn State, and Michigan look not that much different in the college football playoff committee’s poll than LSU’s top four wins — Georgia (if they win the SEC title game), Florida, Auburn and Alabama.
Instead of LSU beating the number 4, 7, 9, and 11 teams, as they would have done in the AP and coaches polls, LSU has beaten the number 4, 9, 11 and 12 teams.
And, significantly, instead of Ohio State having beaten the number 10, 11, and 17 teams, they’ve beaten the number 8, 10, and 14 teams.
The result? The committee can look at their rankings and say the top wins of LSU and Ohio State are comparable, when that isn’t really the case in the AP or coaches polls.
Ohio State will finish without a single top ten win, potentially, in the AP and coaches polls, while LSU would finish with three top ten wins, and maybe four, in the AP and and coaches polls.
Yet much of that difference is wiped clean in the playoff poll.
I’m not sure which three or four members on the committee are making this decision — remember that’s all it could take on a 12 or 13 person committee — but we don’t see the ballots so there’s no way to analyze who is overvaluing the Big Ten substantially over the SEC.
My biggest issue with the college football playoff committee in general is it’s just another poll.
And if there’s a poll involved I’d rather have more people voting than less people voting. So I’d rather have a 100+ people voting in the AP and the coaches poll combined than I would 12 or 13 — less than that with recusals — in the college football playoff committee.
Why?
Because one individual college playoff committee voter has far more power than one individual voter does in the AP or coaches polls.
Plus, and I think this is key, the AP and the coaches polls release the full votes of every voter at the end of the year. So you might not agree with the voting, but there is full transparency.
The college football playoff committee doesn’t release their polls.
So if you have a rig job in effect, you’d never be able to see it.
My final point: we don’t know who is doing it, but the evidence is pretty clear here: the college football playoff committee is drastically overvaluing the Big Ten teams at the expense of the SEC teams when you compare the rankings of the AP and coaches polls with their own playoff rankings.
And the biggest winner is Ohio State.
And the biggest loser is LSU.
All with a number one playoff seed on the line.
Maybe that’s totally coincidental.
But I’m not buying it.
