🏈 Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry

[RhinoGuy]

Do I need to find a ruler, or .. ?

You taking the measurements?

 

[RhinoGuy]

Just for you both, @BamaFan334 and @Sgt. Lincoln Osiris, Navy faced 4 Top 50 rush defenses and Notre Lame wasn't one of them. The Reynolds kid had an outstanding career, but the Heisman isn't a career award, just seasonal.

I'm not sure the Heisman carries the same standards that it used to.

 

[T&B]

I eat Heisman trophies for breakfast.

 

[Snout Spout]

I ran the rushing S&P+ Defense numbers for teams Alabama, Clemson, Stanford, and Navy have faced. If youre unfamiliar with S&P+, it's advanced statistical analysis that adjusts for quality of opponent faced, garbage time, etc.

Average ranks: (Hint: Lower is Better!)

Alabama's opponents: 42.83
Clemson's opponents: 60.67
Stanford's opponents: 63.92
Navy's opponents: 71.27

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, DEFENSE

This should make it clear Henry has faced higher quality rushing defenses than his Heisman rivals.

 

[Snout Spout]

SI predicts Henry to be 3rd. Heisman Watch: Breaking down a very close race

WTF.

How do you go from running away with it, and one game later, a game in which you run for 179 yds against the 5th best rushing defense in college football, fall so far in so many people's eyes?

 

[TerryP]

The day you walk in the shoes as a service Academy cadet the day you can talk. I'm willing to bet my life you've not ever lived a week like these guys in your entire life. He broke Montee Ball's touchdown record, something no one in Alabama history has done, so I think his body of work against any kind of competition is enough, especially with not much else in the form of big time football talent. No four or five stars on that team, yet he did it again st that kind of talent. Come on man, he'said earned his seat at the table.

IF the Heisman was a career honor, you have an argument. It's not.

Reynolds finished the entire season with 1093 yards rushing ... a number Henry his in the last half of the season. That metric alone keeps him out of NY. Ezekiel Elliot deserves the invite a lot more than Reynolds.

 

[Snout Spout]

Yahoo and CBS have Watson winning it as well. More and more these sports writers seems to be purposefully contrarian in order to get views, however. Hopefully the voters feel differently.

 

[TerryP]

SI predicts Henry to be 3rd. Heisman Watch: Breaking down a very close race

WTF.

How do you go from running away with it, and one game later, a game in which you run for 179 yds against the 5th best rushing defense in college football, fall so far in so many people's eyes?

Other than this presentation leading to some interesting conversations, I can honestly say I don't give a damn who takes home the trophy. It's been a messed up "honor" going back for a quarter of a century, if not longer.

That said, if you were given a choice, who would you choose to believe? SI's "brain-trust" on the bookmakers in Vegas?

Inductive reasoning has to be used here. Out of these two, which one actually has "real life implications?" The former, a few writers offering opinions, or the later where odds/lines actually mean keeping your job, or not. The former can be wrong all day, all week, all year long. The later can be wrong a couple of times ... and then he's carrying a pink slip (if he's lucky.)

 

[TerryP]

He had a hell of a year, that's a fact

As compared to whom?

 

[Snout Spout]

Other than this presentation leading to some interesting conversations, I can honestly say I don't give a damn who takes home the trophy. It's been a messed up "honor" going back for a quarter of a century, if not longer.

That said, if you were given a choice, who would you choose to believe? SI's "brain-trust" on the bookmakers in Vegas?

Inductive reasoning has to be used here. Out of these two, which one actually has "real life implications?" The former, a few writers offering opinions, or the later where odds/lines actually mean keeping your job, or not. The former can be wrong all day, all week, all year long. The later can be wrong a couple of times ... and then he's carrying a pink slip (if he's lucky.)

Well something has to be said for maybe already having action on Henry and trying to even it out some by giving better odds for the others.

That said, yeah, I would trust Vegas more, but it doesn't mean I like the media starting to slight Henry.

 

[TerryP]

@Snout Spout

I just glanced at 5Dimes ...

$1200 on Henry wins $100.
$100 on Watson means the Sportsbooks are going to lose $2200.
$100 on McCaffrey nets $850.

I just don't see these books losing this kind of money.

While no one knows the outcome of games (with the O/U, spread, etc.) when it comes to a lot of prop bets Vegas books aren't going into this blindly.

FWIW, there's rumor circulating about a leak from the DACNY. (Not that it would be breaking news, or anything new.) At around 8PM several books closed betting on the Heisman according to what I'm seeing.

At 5Dimes, as of 8PM last night, Henry was -975. Big money swing in two hours ... meaning, big money coming in on Henry.

 

[TerryP]

Oh, I was told there's a book in Vegas giving +1600 to Watson ... a little discrepancy there.

 

[TerryP]

Oddsmakers.com

Henry 1:12
McCaffrey 9:1
Watson 14:1

Numbers one and three are the complete opposite of SI's ...

 

[BamaFan334]

As compared to whom?

Considering the team he played for and what he did against the competition, he had a great year. Considering he had 100 yards in sacks he actually rushed for almost 1200 yards.

I said if they pushed it out to more invites he had an argument, not that he was top 3. Everything gets misconstrued on this forum to whatever a specific reader wants to interpret and people get spread thin with having to explain five different thoughts than which they wrote. I'mean not the only person out there that thinks the guy deserved a spot, Mike and mike, The First Team, and plenty of others have voiced the same sentiments.

 

[bamaledge]

I don't think they were planning on inviting more than three players and the top three were invited. Your point, 334, has merit if the top 5 were being invited. Good player either way and he has accomplished alot where he is at.

 

[PhillyGirl]

I'mean not the only person out there that thinks the guy deserved a spot, Mike and mike, The First Team, and plenty of others have voiced the same sentiments.

Who would you swap out of the top 3 for Reynolds?

 

[BamaFan334]

Who would you swap out of the top 3 for Reynolds?

No one. I never said Top 3. I said if they pushed it out to 4 or 5, probably 5. The Top 3 is spot on in my eyes. Those guys definitely earned their way and were the lifeline of their team through the year, and there's no arguing that. And that's my point on people misconstruing comments and interpreting to mean things they weren't meant for. But no, I do not see him a Top 3 guy, maybe not even Top 4, but if they brought in five guys I think he should be considered.

 

[UAgrad93]

I think the group has cut it down to a Top 3 in the last several years for a couple of reasons. One, it saves them some change $$$. Two, a majority of the voting has been turned in before the deadline and their is a clear cut 1,2,3 while others like Mayfield, Reynolds, Cook, etc. were distinctly in a second pack or tier of vote getters.

As for the Reynolds kid, I don't knock what he has done for his team not one bit. I would say for sentimental sake, it would have been nice for him to have been invited.

 

[PhillyGirl]

No one. I never said Top 3. I said if they pushed it out to 4 or 5, probably 5. The Top 3 is spot on in my eyes. Those guys definitely earned their way and were the lifeline of their team through the year, and there's no arguing that. And that's my point on people misconstruing comments and interpreting to mean things they weren't meant for. But no, I do not see him a Top 3 guy, maybe not even Top 4, but if they brought in five guys I think he should be considered.

I agree with that. I was actually pretty high on Reynolds all year but I agree.

 

[BamaFan334]

@Snout Spout

I just glanced at 5Dimes ...

$1200 on Henry wins $100.
$100 on Watson means the Sportsbooks are going to lose $2200.
$100 on McCaffrey nets $850.

I just don't see these books losing this kind of money.

While no one knows the outcome of games (with the O/U, spread, etc.) when it comes to a lot of prop bets Vegas books aren't going into this blindly.

FWIW, there's rumor circulating about a leak from the DACNY. (Not that it would be breaking news, or anything new.) At around 8PM several books closed betting on the Heisman according to what I'm seeing.

At 5Dimes, as of 8PM last night, Henry was -975. Big money swing in two hours ... meaning, big money coming in on Henry.

View attachment 5274

While I think Henry has definitely sewn up the trophy, if you have cash, it may not be a bad $200 bet to throw $100 on each, Watson and McCaffrey. Watson has a shot. But that's if anyone has two extra bones laying around.