Max
Member
Below is a look at Bama's 10 losses since the start of the 2008 season. Yards passing and rushing from the opposing team and turnovers are Bama's.
In 7 of the 10 losses (70%) the opposing team's QB threw for at least 3 TD's. I count the 2012 A&M game (even though Manziel only threw for 2 TD's) because Manziel was amazing that game and ran for another score and was the ONLY reason they won.
In 7 of the 10 losses (70%) Alabama had at least 2 TO's including 3 TO's or more in 3 of the 10 losses.
In ONLY 1 of these 10 losses did Alabama not commit at least two turnovers and the opposing QB not play out of his mind. That of course is last years Auburn game. I will say that Marshall did throw for 2 TD's (though only 97 yards passing) and ran for 99 yards and another score so he was no slouch. Still Bama did not lose that game due to TO's or a Garcia-like performance from the QB. Auburn rushed for almost 300 yards.
So in short Alabama has only lost 1 game in the last 6 1/2 years when they do not turn the ball over more than once and they do not allow the opposing QB to turn into Joe Montana. Alabama only loses when 1)the opposing QB has a phenomenal game, 2)they turn the ball over 2 times or more, or 3)the barn has a horseshoe up their a$$. For this game #3 can be ignored.
What does this have to do with the LSU game?
A. Jennings has thrown for no more than 1 TD against any SEC team (including KY). He did throw for 3 TD's once this season but it was against Sam Houston State. The most passing yards he has accounted for was his 239 yards against Wisconsin (although 80 yards came on 1 play). Against SEC competition he is averaging right at 125 yards/game and less than one TD per game. RUSHING YOU ASK? His best game was a 40 yard performance against KY. Against Auburn, Florida, and OM, he rushed for 7, -8, and 2 yards respectively.
Jennings is not going to miraculously throw for 300 yards and 3 TD's. He has not even shown glimpses of that kind of play. He might throw for 150 and 1 TD but I also expect a INT. As much as people like to fuss Alabama currently ranks 26th in passing defense and that would of course be much better if not for the first game of the season when our corners were not set. This will be the 3rd best passing D Jennings has faced this season behind Wisconsin and OM who ranks just ahead of Bama at 22nd. Alabama will not lose this game because of a Garcia-like performance from Jennings.
The ONLY way Bama loses this game will be if they turn the ball over more than 2 times (I think LSU gives us at least 1 TO). I think LSU knows this and will probably be looking to strip the ball as much as possible. Special teams are worrisome with our kicking woes and mistakes handling kickoff and punts. The atmosphere will only make it worse.
If Bama hangs on to the ball they win. Its really that simple IMO. LSU is not good enough to beat us without some help.
BAMA 24 LSU 13
In 7 of the 10 losses (70%) the opposing team's QB threw for at least 3 TD's. I count the 2012 A&M game (even though Manziel only threw for 2 TD's) because Manziel was amazing that game and ran for another score and was the ONLY reason they won.
In 7 of the 10 losses (70%) Alabama had at least 2 TO's including 3 TO's or more in 3 of the 10 losses.
In ONLY 1 of these 10 losses did Alabama not commit at least two turnovers and the opposing QB not play out of his mind. That of course is last years Auburn game. I will say that Marshall did throw for 2 TD's (though only 97 yards passing) and ran for 99 yards and another score so he was no slouch. Still Bama did not lose that game due to TO's or a Garcia-like performance from the QB. Auburn rushed for almost 300 yards.
So in short Alabama has only lost 1 game in the last 6 1/2 years when they do not turn the ball over more than once and they do not allow the opposing QB to turn into Joe Montana. Alabama only loses when 1)the opposing QB has a phenomenal game, 2)they turn the ball over 2 times or more, or 3)the barn has a horseshoe up their a$$. For this game #3 can be ignored.
What does this have to do with the LSU game?
A. Jennings has thrown for no more than 1 TD against any SEC team (including KY). He did throw for 3 TD's once this season but it was against Sam Houston State. The most passing yards he has accounted for was his 239 yards against Wisconsin (although 80 yards came on 1 play). Against SEC competition he is averaging right at 125 yards/game and less than one TD per game. RUSHING YOU ASK? His best game was a 40 yard performance against KY. Against Auburn, Florida, and OM, he rushed for 7, -8, and 2 yards respectively.
Jennings is not going to miraculously throw for 300 yards and 3 TD's. He has not even shown glimpses of that kind of play. He might throw for 150 and 1 TD but I also expect a INT. As much as people like to fuss Alabama currently ranks 26th in passing defense and that would of course be much better if not for the first game of the season when our corners were not set. This will be the 3rd best passing D Jennings has faced this season behind Wisconsin and OM who ranks just ahead of Bama at 22nd. Alabama will not lose this game because of a Garcia-like performance from Jennings.
The ONLY way Bama loses this game will be if they turn the ball over more than 2 times (I think LSU gives us at least 1 TO). I think LSU knows this and will probably be looking to strip the ball as much as possible. Special teams are worrisome with our kicking woes and mistakes handling kickoff and punts. The atmosphere will only make it worse.
If Bama hangs on to the ball they win. Its really that simple IMO. LSU is not good enough to beat us without some help.
BAMA 24 LSU 13
