🧑🤝🧑 / 🏡 CV-19: Effects on life, work, and sports
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planomateo
Member
Another optimistic article.
We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.
By Marty Makary
Feb. 18, 2021 12:35 pm ET
ILLUSTRATION: MARTIN KOZLOWSKI
Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.
Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.
Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells.
Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.
In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling.
I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild.
But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.
My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity.
Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains.
Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.
Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.
Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”
We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.
By Marty Makary
Feb. 18, 2021 12:35 pm ET
ILLUSTRATION: MARTIN KOZLOWSKI
Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.
Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.
Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells.
Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.
In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling.
I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild.
But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.
My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity.
Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains.
Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.
Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.
Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”
mando
Member
The tone of that article would be completely different were Trump still in office. Pure speculation on my part for sure but it is interesting to watch how things are reported. Biden admin not wanted to paint a rosier picture to manage how people react. Under Trump that is lying. Not so under Biden. Same end goal was to manage peoples behaviors.
Oh and as far as the article goes that is great news.
planomateo
Member
BamaFan334
Member
His three weeks in office produced a miracle. We're safe now, this thing is juuuuuuust about over.
It's curious that things are sunnier now. NBC, ABC, and CBS nightly news no longer kick off the program with "the worst of the pandemic is yet before us. We are heading towards a deadly (insert whatever season is next). Today marked another...grim...new milestone.....hospitals and emergency rooms on the verge of total collapse.....doctors are quitting, there are 2 ventilators left between 12 major cities, new evidence that you can catch the virus in dreams as well, Dr Fauci recommends masking up at bedtime"
Articles highlighting the upside would have never come out say...2 months ago
Articles highlighting the upside would have never come out say...2 months ago
It's curious that things are sunnier now. NBC, ABC, and CBS nightly news no longer kick off the program with "the worst of the pandemic is yet before us. We are heading towards a deadly (insert whatever season is next). Today marked another...grim...new milestone.....hospitals and emergency rooms on the verge of total collapse.....doctors are quitting, there are 2 ventilators left between 12 major cities, new evidence that you can catch the virus in dreams as well, Dr Fauci recommends masking up at bedtime"
Articles highlighting the upside would have never come out say...2 months ago
I have to admit, with a 77% decline over the last six weeks, it wouldn't have been accurate two months ago.
These are not serious people (the ones in charge)...
www.wenatcheeworld.com
Back at school | Pandemic continues, but life goes on at Wenatchee and Eastmont highs
WENATCHEE — You can’t see them smiling beneath the masks, but students at Wenatchee and Eastmont high schools are glad to be back in school, even if it’s only part-time.
BamaFan334
Member
These are not serious people (the ones in charge)...
Back at school | Pandemic continues, but life goes on at Wenatchee and Eastmont highs
WENATCHEE — You can’t see them smiling beneath the masks, but students at Wenatchee and Eastmont high schools are glad to be back in school, even if it’s only part-time.
Ha ha ha ha, I cannot believe that this is where some people are. I cannot believe that they think this is solving a problem. You look at this and have to wonder who in the hell is running the future of our kid's success. I would tell all of my kids, under the age of ten that they could tell their teacher to "f@*k off" if they tried to put them in one of these, or they couldn't participate. One cuss word, just this once kids...
bama alum
Member
A LOT of what we have to do to keep kids in school is to abide by the dictates of the ADPH.
rocknthefreeworld
Member
I hope we have college football in 2020Dr. Herbstreit's prediction on the 2020 season, both college and professional, isn't too encouraging.
Kirk Herbstreit doesn't believe college football or the NFL will be played in 2020
This would be the worst.www.saturdaydownsouth.com
Kirk Herbstreit doesn't believe college football or the NFL will be played in 2020
The year is already off to a terrible start in many aspects but it may go down as the worst year in football history if Kirk Herbstreit is accurate.
We are all currently being affected in some aspect following the outbreak of the coronavirus and hoping to return to normal as soon as possible but the way the ESPN college football analyst sees it, this fall may be much the same.
In fact, Herbstreit recently shared his firm belief that there will be no college football or NFL played this fall.
“I’ll be shocked if we have NFL football this fall, if we have college football. I’ll be so surprised if that happens,” Herbstreit recently said according to TMZ Sports.
The ESPN analyst further explained his opinion is based on the fact we likely won’t have a vaccine for the coronavirus for some time. When you take that into consideration, it may be tough for football to continue until that time arrives.
“Just because from what I understand, people that I listen to, you’re 12 to 18 months from a vaccine,” Herbstreit continued. “I don’t know how you let these guys go into locker rooms and let stadiums be filled up and how you can play ball. I just don’t know how you can do it with the optics of it.”
Who’s ready to fast forward to 2021 already?
Georgia and Alabama (I think) haven't been subject to hours limitations in some time. Although the liberal press will never give him credit, GA's governor averted a major economic hit here, both by keeping things more open and making early cuts to state spending.
Did you catch the article about Bristol bars and restaurant patrons crossing the street when 10PM hit? Different state regulations between TN and VA. It was on Outkick I believe. Interesting owner story.
I knew TN opened up earlier than VA, not surprised about the hours difference.
I got to see my first real concert last night since I saw Sturgill Simpson and Tyler Childers at BJCC last winter. Jamey Johnson and Randy Houser in an acoustic set, playing together and having a good time. They are good friends, and they were in Atlanta for a three night stand at the new Roxie at Battery Park by the Braves Stadium. Social distancing was the order of the evening, and our table of four was surrounded on three sides by a double row of crowd control fencing, no cash could change hands and you couldn't stand in line for a beer - all automated and cashless. Every table was full, but a sparse crowd compared to most press-the-flesh honky tonk events. They were just having a good time, Johnson opened with a Tom T. Hall classic, "Faster Horses", and said at one point, "we're playing in my living room, and we decided to invite you guys in." Randy Houser had some success eight or fifteen years ago, he has a Brooks and Dunn type voice, but stronger and better, and he can play. As a casual listener of contemporary country, I learned songs I'd attributed to Brooks/Dunn were actually him. What Whiskey Does is a keeper. My son opened for him at the Grizzly Rose in Denver last winter, so I was a little more familiar with him than I would've been.
What a great show. Things are getting better. Hang in there.
RTR,
Tim
What a great show. Things are getting better. Hang in there.
RTR,
Tim
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