🏈 Big 10 expansion questions

[LBS]

1) What odds do you lay that they will add Notre Dame?
2) What odds do you lay that they will expand at all? and who?
3) How many teams will they add?
4) If they expand, what moves will the SEC make, if any?

 

[bamascw]

1. I think they would like to add Notre Dame but Notre Dame seems to still be benefiting from being independent. Don't think they will want to be added. 15%

2. I think they certainly will expand, maybe not til 2011 though. They need a championship game (IMO). 95%

3. They add 1 team to become a 12 team conference.

4. Don't think the SEC makes any move. They won't be luring away an SEC team (IMO).

 

[psychojoe]

Re 1: They've wanted to add ND for years, but as long as ND has the NBC contract they have very little incentive to join any conference. I'd say less than 5% chance.

Re 2: I'd say 90% that they will expand, since it would let them have a football championship game and all the extra $ that brings. Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, Missouri are all possibilities. I'd ignore the Texas talk. Texas actually has a state law that Texas can't go to another league unless aTm goes too.

3. I'd say they add 1 team or 5, with one being the most likely.

4. I don't see the SEC responding, as there doesn't seem to be any threat to the SEC from these moves.

 

[rammerjammer]

Here is a good article from SI on that topic. Slive basically says that if you want to play the game of super conference....then we will play too.

 

[BamaCore]

Well, if the SEC's hand is forced what teams do you guys think we'll target? I could see us going after teams such as Clemson, Florida State, and maybe even Texas and Oklahoma.

 

[LBS]

Here is a good article from SI on that topic. Slive basically says that if you want to play the game of super conference....then we will play too.

Thanks for the link RAMMER.

This is potentialy the most interesting topic in the sport in decades. Mega Conferences; and Slive is talking war. If he's talking it, he's already working deals behind the scenes just in case. Does anyone think that this is not the case?

So if this is war, and they come two by two, who are the first tow "home runs" that Slive goes after to make the conference count 14?

Who are the next two to make it 16?

Do the original 12 remain, or do some leave?

 

[rammerjammer]

I would have to do some digging, but one article on SI (I think) or it may have been Tony Barnhart at the AJC....either way I read an article last week and if Big10 goes for a 16 team super conference, then the SEC would target Texas, aTm, FSU and Miami.

All of this is speculative at this point, but by all indications, Slive would go all out to keep the SEC as the premier conference.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

1) What odds do you lay that they will add Notre Dame? Zilch ND will want a bigger piece of the pie and that will end the discussions.....
2) What odds do you lay that they will expand at all? and who? 100% When they don't get ND, they will go after either some mid-west team (can't think of who right off of the bat).
3) How many teams will they add? Probably one to start with........
4) If they expand, what moves will the SEC make, if any?

None, if they add one. Further expansion if they add five....

 

[Lyrically_N_Gaged]

My question is, what are they goin to name the conference?

Big 16?

 

[252BAMA]

Thanks for the link RAMMER.

This is potentialy the most interesting topic in the sport in decades. Mega Conferences; and Slive is talking war. If he's talking it, he's already working deals behind the scenes just in case. Does anyone think that this is not the case?

So if this is war, and they come two by two, who are the first tow "home runs" that Slive goes after to make the conference count 14?

Who are the next two to make it 16?

Do the original 12 remain, or do some leave?

Yes it is war, and I don't see the SEC firing the second shot. I see them firing first.

I also think any expansion by any of them will be to 16 teams. It may happen in steps (12 to 14 to 16), but I don't think so. Look for it all at once. And I don't see any SEC team leaving.

Since expansion is about adding TV markets I do not see FSU nor Miami, nor Clemson being added. Besides it would be a cold day in Hell before UF and SC would let those rivals come in and pick up an extra 6-7 mil per year because that is what it is all about anyway. MONEY! With that being said, I think the SEC would like to add Texas and Texas A&M to the West and North Carolina and Virginia Tech to the East. I would say at this point the Texas teams are all but a done deal. Have no idea about the East. If Eastern expansion is a problem, then I would look for them to go back West and add OKlahoma and Oklahoma State. In that case Bama and the barn would be moved to the East or new North- South Divisions would be set up.

As for the little eleven, who knows what ND is going to do? ND probably doesn't know what ND is going to do. I do know that any potential new members will come from the AAU. The little eleven list begins and ends with this list:

http://www.answers.com/topic/association-of-american-universities

The fact that Texas and Texas A&M are both on this list is the reason I think the SEC will fire first. I do not believe they will take a chance on the little eleven grabbing the Texas schools.

 

[252BAMA]

One of the first, if not THE first, in CFB to foresee all of this, was, none other than, Coach Bryant. Which is why, despite his great dislike of Atlanta and Furman Bisher, he sponsored Georgia Tech's request to rejoin the SEC.

 

[BamaCore]

Man 252, if you're right then things are going to get fun really soon. When do you think all this will possibly go down? This offseason?

 

[252BAMA]

Man 252, if you're right then things are going to get fun really soon. When do you think all this will possibly go down? This offseason?

My guess is that Texas and Texas A&M and the SEC are crossing t"s and dotting i's on the contract right now. Not enough has been said or written about schools to the East for me to have a good take on that, but I am sure the SEC would love to have North Carolina and Virginia Tech.

 

[alagator]

My guess is that Texas and Texas A&M and the SEC are crossing t"s and dotting i's on the contract right now. Not enough has been said or written about schools to the East for me to have a good take on that, but I am sure the SEC would love to have North Carolina and Virginia Tech.

I do not see UNC leaving unless Duke comes along. The basketball rivalry is just too deep and important. And while they could play as non-conference foes, it would lose too much in my opinion.

Too deep to get into now, but I was privy to a plan being formulated by Jeremy Foley around two years back that involved Florida, Georgia, Syracuse, and either Alabama or Tennessee moving to the ACC to form a North-South superconference. The thing was pretty impressive on all three of the men's fronts (football, basketball, and baseball). And the major TV markets from New York to Washington, to Charlotte, to Atlanta, to Tampa, to Miami - and Birmingham, were tied into the deal. The money was outstanding. The UF President nixed the idea. Have to see what he thinks of the plan now.

But think about a football league with Miami, Florida, FSU, Alabama, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Duke on one side and Boston College, Syracuse, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest on the other. I think it is too heavy on the South side of things, but good grief. And the basketball would not be bad either.

But back to the current thoughts.

At least one of the new schools would have to be a major Texas school - and I do not see TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, or Houston bringing enough TV ratings to justify their inclusion. And since UTx and aTm will not move unless as a pair, they have to be included. Personally, I would stop with those two and stick at 14 members.

Remember, each new member needs to bring at least a $17MM per year increase in rights fees to justify their invitation. FSU, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and any of the North Carolina schools not named Duke or UNC will not meet that target (the latter two will on basketball alone). Miami is iffy (UF is not the total dominate TV program below Orlando). Virginia Tech might because they would open up the Tidewater and possibly Richmond/DC markets (the former much less certain). Louisville I would have to research more to formulate an opinion.

If 16 is the magic number. I would go with UTx and aTm in the West. And two of UNC, Duke, VA Tech, and Miami in the East. My preference in the East would be UNC and Miami, but I imagine UNC and Duke would not go unless as a couple (much like the two Texas schools).

So, a West of Texas, aTm, Arkansas, LSU, Miss, Miss State, Alabama, and Auburn. An East of Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, UNC, and Duke. A little too strong on the West for football (maybe switch Vandy and Auburn) and WAY too strong on the East in basketball (which matters less in the championship hunt) - (so maybe switch Kentucky and Auburn instead).

Every TV market from the Texas border with New Mexico to probably DC (Duke and UNC are strong up there) would be SEC Turf.

 

[252BAMA]

I do not see UNC leaving unless Duke comes along. The basketball rivalry is just too deep and important. And while they could play as non-conference foes, it would lose too much in my opinion.

Too deep to get into now, but I was privy to a plan being formulated by Jeremy Foley around two years back that involved Florida, Georgia, Syracuse, and either Alabama or Tennessee moving to the ACC to form a North-South superconference. The thing was pretty impressive on all three of the men's fronts (football, basketball, and baseball). And the major TV markets from New York to Washington, to Charlotte, to Atlanta, to Tampa, to Miami - and Birmingham, were tied into the deal. The money was outstanding. The UF President nixed the idea. Have to see what he thinks of the plan now.

But think about a football league with Miami, Florida, FSU, Alabama, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Duke on one side and Boston College, Syracuse, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest on the other. I think it is too heavy on the South side of things, but good grief. And the basketball would not be bad either.

But back to the current thoughts.

At least one of the new schools would have to be a major Texas school - and I do not see TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, or Houston bringing enough TV ratings to justify their inclusion. And since UTx and aTm will not move unless as a pair, they have to be included. Personally, I would stop with those two and stick at 14 members.

Remember, each new member needs to bring at least a $17MM per year increase in rights fees to justify their invitation. FSU, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and any of the North Carolina schools not named Duke or UNC will not meet that target (the latter two will on basketball alone). Miami is iffy (UF is not the total dominate TV program below Orlando). Virginia Tech might because they would open up the Tidewater and possibly Richmond/DC markets (the former much less certain). Louisville I would have to research more to formulate an opinion.

If 16 is the magic number. I would go with UTx and aTm in the West. And two of UNC, Duke, VA Tech, and Miami in the East. My preference in the East would be UNC and Miami, but I imagine UNC and Duke would not go unless as a couple (much like the two Texas schools).

So, a West of Texas, aTm, Arkansas, LSU, Miss, Miss State, Alabama, and Auburn. An East of Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, UNC, and Duke. A little too strong on the West for football (maybe switch Vandy and Auburn) and WAY too strong on the East in basketball (which matters less in the championship hunt) - (so maybe switch Kentucky and Auburn instead).

Every TV market from the Texas border with New Mexico to probably DC (Duke and UNC are strong up there) would be SEC Turf.

Very good analysis. Everyone can rest assured that all of those things are what is being looked at.

 

[It Takes Eleven]

I do not see UNC leaving unless Duke comes along. The basketball rivalry is just too deep and important. And while they could play as non-conference foes, it would lose too much in my opinion.

Too deep to get into now, but I was privy to a plan being formulated by Jeremy Foley around two years back that involved Florida, Georgia, Syracuse, and either Alabama or Tennessee moving to the ACC to form a North-South superconference. The thing was pretty impressive on all three of the men's fronts (football, basketball, and baseball). And the major TV markets from New York to Washington, to Charlotte, to Atlanta, to Tampa, to Miami - and Birmingham, were tied into the deal. The money was outstanding. The UF President nixed the idea. Have to see what he thinks of the plan now.

But think about a football league with Miami, Florida, FSU, Alabama, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Duke on one side and Boston College, Syracuse, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest on the other. I think it is too heavy on the South side of things, but good grief. And the basketball would not be bad either.

But back to the current thoughts.

At least one of the new schools would have to be a major Texas school - and I do not see TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, or Houston bringing enough TV ratings to justify their inclusion. And since UTx and aTm will not move unless as a pair, they have to be included. Personally, I would stop with those two and stick at 14 members.

Remember, each new member needs to bring at least a $17MM per year increase in rights fees to justify their invitation. FSU, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and any of the North Carolina schools not named Duke or UNC will not meet that target (the latter two will on basketball alone). Miami is iffy (UF is not the total dominate TV program below Orlando). Virginia Tech might because they would open up the Tidewater and possibly Richmond/DC markets (the former much less certain). Louisville I would have to research more to formulate an opinion.

If 16 is the magic number. I would go with UTx and aTm in the West. And two of UNC, Duke, VA Tech, and Miami in the East. My preference in the East would be UNC and Miami, but I imagine UNC and Duke would not go unless as a couple (much like the two Texas schools).

So, a West of Texas, aTm, Arkansas, LSU, Miss, Miss State, Alabama, and Auburn. An East of Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, UNC, and Duke. A little too strong on the West for football (maybe switch Vandy and Auburn) and WAY too strong on the East in basketball (which matters less in the championship hunt) - (so maybe switch Kentucky and Auburn instead).

Every TV market from the Texas border with New Mexico to probably DC (Duke and UNC are strong up there) would be SEC Turf.

Thanks for sharing that assessment. Although it's the less likely scenario, aubrun in the east would be problematic for us and require dropping UT as a permanent opponent. Interestingly, it could set up playing them twice in consecutive weeks. That would be a wild scene - win the first, lose the second and the glory would be short lived.

RTR,

Tim

 

[psychojoe]

Just for fun, what if the 4 we took in were Texas, aTm, Oklahoma and OSU. The west would be those four, plus Arky, LSU, Ole Moss and MSU, very solid in the men's sports. The East would be all the present east schools, plus us and the barn. Again, awfully strong.

The two Oklahoma schools wouldn't help with major markets, but they are both well heeled and have top level facilities and coaches.

 

[252BAMA]

Here is a great article/blog on the little eleven expansion. The points he makes about what they would be looking for would be the same for the SEC.

The Big Ten Expansion Index: A Different Shade of Orange FRANK THE TANK’S SLANT

 

[rammerjammer]

If the SEC only added 2 teams to go to 14......I think it would behoove them to snag FSU and Miami. Those 2 would add a lot to the conference along with a couple of good markets in Tampa/Miami. Also would be logistically better as far as travel against other opponents.

While I think it would be cool to have UT and aTm...I think VT and GT would be better due to the same reasons. Logistics.

Lot of good reasons for Texas/aTM, (money and the market they cover) would be the biggest reasons.

 

[252BAMA]

If the SEC only added 2 teams to go to 14......I think it would behoove them to snag FSU and Miami. Those 2 would add a lot to the conference along with a couple of good markets in Tampa/Miami. Also would be logistically better as far as travel against other opponents.

While I think it would be cool to have UT and aTm...I think VT and GT would be better due to the same reasons. Logistics.

Lot of good reasons for Texas/aTM, (money and the market they cover) would be the biggest reasons.

I still think they will expand to 16 teams, and what you just said gives me more of a reason to think that. Because, I also believe that the SEC would like to have FSU and Miami.

I have been saying that EACH school would have to bring in 18 mil in new TV revenue to be considered. And I do not think that FSU and Miami could do that. But what if Texas and Texas A&M brought in 50 mil? Then FSU and Miami would need only to provide the other 22 mil in order for the SEC to invite those 4 schools into the conference. Of course, if the Texas schools can do that, they need to go Independent and start their own network.