Updated standings…
Alabama is currently stuck in the 13-11 log jam with 2 weeks to play, which on the surface, isn't too bad. But if you dig past that, things are not quite as promising in terms of SEC positioning. Of the 4 team log jam, Bama has (IMO) the toughest remaining SEC schedule. Add to tht, auburn owns the tiebreaker over Bama (though Bama owns it over OU). Both teams ahead of the pack by a game, Vandy and Tennessee, also have the tiebreaker edge over Bama. So just in terms of SEC positoning, Bama has their work cut out for them.
More importantly though, Bama needs to be winning games from here on out, not necessarily for SEC seeding reasons, but for a chance at hosting a regional. The blown lead against Vandy yesterday was a massive blow... it's one that I think Bama can recover from, but not sure they will recover from. At this point, I think Bama will need 17 SEC wins to feel somewhat comfortable with getting a top 16 seed (normally 16 wins would get them in the door, especially with the good RPI, but the SEC is extra good this year and being on the bottom end of the "good" teams is likely gonna lead to traveling on regional weekend). Can they go 4-2 against UGA at home and UF in Gainesville? Sure. Do I feel confident based on how they've played within the league this year? Nope. Fact is, Bama has just 3 SEC series wins to this point... an opening weekend sweep of A&M who stumbled out of the gate, a home series win vs. OU, and the freebie series win against the misfits of Mizzou. It'll be an uphill battle to win either series against a really good UGA squad (that can smash) and a resurged Florida team that is playing their best ball of the year right now having won 10 of their last 12 SEC games. But, it's why they play the games... so we'll see how it turns out.
This week, Bama will play at #19 Troy to close out their midweek games. It'll be an opportunity for a Quad 1 win and at this point, every positive data point well help, especially if Bama ends up with just 16 league wins.
Coming up this weekend...
South Carolina @ #8 auburn - You can probably chalk up 3 wins for auburn here, especially if they keep playing as well as they have been.
#11 Vanderbilt @ #15 Tennessee - Vols are leaking some oil down the stretch, but they should win this series.
#17 Oklahoma @ Kentucky - Need the Cats to win this one somehow.
Missouri @ Texas A&M - Do I even need to say it?
Florida @ #1 Texas - Texas just lost their first SEC series of the season, and it was a sweep by the Hogs. Florida is hot and playing really well. I think Texas takes the series, but could see UF stealing a game.
#7 Arkansas @ #3 LSU - This should be a really good series., 2 groups of extremely annoying fans aside.
#24 Ole Miss @ Mississippi State - Need MSU to get this series win.
#6 Georgia @ #23 Alabama - At least Bama gets them at home... that will limit HR's. But the Tide is gonna need to score some runs.