Updated standings going into the final weekend of the regular season…
In my head, I'm picturing the final lap at Talladega here... It sorta already started this past weekend with the Missouri car (who was already 60 laps down) sending Texas A&M car hard into the wall in turn 1. The South Carolina car was black flagged for literally falling apart and forced to leave the track. The OU car is off the pace and losing spots, oil is dripping from the engine... can they stay in the draft? The Vol car needs a new set of tires, badly... but they gambled and are trying to finish on this set (their pit crew also got into a fights with literally every other pit crew during the race). Ole Miss is on fumes. The Vandy car is weaving their way up front. The auburn car, while almost certainly cheating with an illegal spoiler and larger gas tank, is moving up spots. The Florida car has fought back from an early race wreck and is back on the lead lap, posting some of the fastest speeds of the race. The Texas, Arkansas, and LSU cars are jockeying for 1st place positioning. The Bama car is fighting for a top 5 finish, but they don't have the best drafting partner (and their assistant crew chief seems to screw up their pit stops late in the races which has put them in this position yet again). But, the BIG ONE can happen, and if the Alabama car avoids it, they may find themselves in that top 5 when the checkered waves... cross your fingers.
Along those lines, coming up this week (beginning Thursday)...
Texas A&M @ #10 Georgia - With the Aggies reeling after getting swept by Mizzou, do they even show up mentally in Athens? The Bulldogs are going to be fighting for the series, they probably only need 1 win to clinch a top 8 seed, but they aren't gonna want to lose their final two going into the SECT, just to be completely safe. Flip side, if the Aggies do show up and win the series, there is still a glimmer of postseason hope for them.
Mississippi State @ Missouri - Two teams that have finally found themselves here in May. MSU has played well since their coach was canned (winning 6 of their last 7) and Mizzou sold their soul or something to sweep A&M this past weekend. If State wins the series, they are likely in someone's regional. If they sweep, they are certainly in.
Kentucky @ #9 Vanderbilt - Vandy is playing their best ball of the season right now. Kentucky has been up and down week to week like a yoyo. If that trend continues, this will be a really good series since the Cats should be on the upswing.
#1 LSU @ South Carolina - LSU should sweep (their leg) here and lock up a top regional spot... maybe not the #1 regional spot, but it would put them in the conversation as things play out. Does Mainieri have anything saved up for his old school? Probably not, they suck.
#6 auburn @ Ole Miss - The Rebels have lost their last 2 series. Meanwhile, auburn has won 9 of their last 11 games. But, the Tigers have had their struggles on the road this year at times. They will be playing for a chance to grab a top #8 seed though, so I'd imagine they'll roll into Oxford ready to go. Personally, I hope they lose all 3 and their bus catches fire on the way home. Fuck 'em.
#3 Texas @ Oklahoma - The Sooners need some wins to try and salvage a chance at hosting, but getting a series win, much less a sweep, over Texas is a tall order. The Horns are going to want that SEC regular season title. They are also gonna want that #1 overall seed. That Thursday night matchup of Texas vs. Kyson Witherspoon should be a fun one though.
#17 Tennessee @ #8 Arkansas - Like a few SEC teams, the Vols are on the hosting bubble right now and need wins. This should be a really good series. The Vols play well on the road and Arkansas still has an outside shot at the SEC title (albeit small) and will be battling for a top regional slot. Maybe we'll see a good, old fashioned benches clearing brawl that results in multiple suspensions (and concussions) for both teams.
#18 Alabama @ #23 Florida - There's a
lot on the line for both teams in Gainesville. For the Tide, they are on the hosting bubble right now and a series win would earn them a home regional. On the flip side, if the Gators can sweep Bama, they likely claim a hosting spot of their own (of course knocking Bama out of the top 16 in the process). The bad news for Bama is, Florida is playing as well as anyone in the country right now and just won their series at Texas. This will be an uphill battle for Bama, but the prize at the top would be nice if they can reach it.
Also worth noting as it concerns Bama and their chances at hosting... RPI isn't everything that goes into the committee's decision on regional selections, but it's a
major part of it. As of today, Bama is sitting at #8 in the RPI standings, a good spot to be in, all things considered. They are 12-9 in Quad 1 games, again, a pretty good number(s). But, Bama could use a little help this week... first off, Texas A&M. They are teetering on the Q1 line and a series loss in Athens likely sends them into the Q2 slot, taking 3 wins off Bama's Q1 line. Oklahoma is another team Bama needs to win... they are currently a Quad 2 series win for Bama and moving up just 1 spot in the RPI would put them into the Q1 category. Unfortunately, as mentioned above, those 2 teams will have their hands full this week... but maybe at least one of them will come through and help keep Bama's Q1 wins on the respectable side of things. For a smaller data point, Southern Miss winning their series at Troy could
possibly give Bama an extra Q1 win as well. Above all else though, Bama controls their own destiny... Florida is easily a Q1 team and a series win at their place would carry a good bit of data weight, plenty to offset anything that happens with A&M and OU. And lastly, besides RPI, the committee now also looks at the KPI rankings, and FWIW, Bama is sitting 10th there. Again, a pretty good spot for them, based on their record thus far.
Sorry for any errors and such, in a hurry today and no time to proof it (I usually still miss all the errors when I do anyway).