🏈 Bama open as a 14.5 to beat Texas A&M

[rick4bama]

Cecil Hurt @CecilHurt
Alabama opens as a 14.5-point favorite over Texas A&M.

 

[TheChief]

The Aggie defense must be as bad as they look. Bama's only scored three touchdowns on offense in the last two games. Maybe they see the defense picking up a couple of fumbles and scoring.

 

[UAgrad93]

Vegas must know something. I would have started the line around 7-7.5. Their defense is bad and we do seem to be stuffing the run game and getting a good push up front to get pressure on a QB.

 

[bcracker]

Yeah, 14 points is a surprise to me. I thought it would be a lot smaller.

 

[rick4bama]

Arkansas had a good rushing game, Bama D stop that totally.

 

[Crimson&WhiteGecko]

I think it is nuts. We just beat the piggies by 1...

They are going to play Defense expecting Sims to win the game. He is going to have too, like AJ did last year.

They will then be throwing it like mad.

 

[ElephantStomp]

A touch too big. Vegas must be watching a different Alabama team than me. But, aTm's defense must be well above terrible

 

[TerryP]

I think it is nuts. We just beat the piggies by 1...

.

FWIW, as of right now, the average across online casinos is -12.5.

......

If we use the Arkansas game as a statistical reference should we not also mention A&M allowed the 'Backs 28? There's a 15 pt differential in itself. Then you have to weigh neutral versus home field in the mix.

The line does seem high if you're talking about the actual point difference. If you add in the oddsmakers wanting even money on both sides it starts to make more sense.

FWIW, even with the offensive performance against Arkansas, there's still not a great deal of difference between what A&M is doing this year on offense and what Bama has done (sans total yards passing.) Yards per play and yards per game are very similar.

Turnovers and missed FG's...we talk about those being correctable mistakes. Shouldn't we expect oddsmakers to have the same mindset?

 

[BamaFan334]

Either way anyone wants to put it, I have no clue where a 14.5 spread of confidence came from regarding our team. Yes, our run defense is very stout, but our passing defense is abismal in terms of what I think it should be considering our talent level. I'm worried with the 3-4 and the little to no pass rush we get that we may get abused in the secondary. If we take a bend but don't break mentality into this game we can win, but if we make dumb mental mistakes and continue to turn the ball over we are going to get drilled. I felt like our defense was on the field for 95% of the game Saturday. Texas A&M has more athletes than Arkansas and they will make us pay if our offense doesn't get cranking. Run behind big Cameron Robinson and work on stretching the field again instead of so many bubble screens behind the line of scrimmage. I'm excited for this weekend and hope coach gets after some ass in practice this week.

 

[jdpas29]

nail biter

 

[sean]

i think it's that big due to the game being in our house. we've played pretty good there (so far) this season so they may be looking at that as well as aTm's defense not being as good as it should be.

 

[Crimson&WhiteGecko]

I keep asking myself the difference the last 3 weeks have made since UF. I mean, UArk D couldn't have been better than UF, right?

If not, the 3 biggest things resonate with me:

• Home field advantage
• K Drake, gone
• R Kelly, out

ALL three impact B Sims, big time!

This team has got to mature & move on. Tenpenny needs to step up in Drakes roll.

 

[planomateo]

I keep asking myself the difference the last 3 weeks have made since UF. I mean, UArk D couldn't have been better than UF, right?

If not, the 3 biggest things resonate with me:

• 
  Home field advantage
  K Drake, gone
  R Kelly, out

ALL three impact B Sims, big time!

This team has got to mature & move on. Tenpenny needs to step up in Drakes roll.

A Sims shoulder injury is missing from your list.

 

[riz]

If Kenny Hill completes half of his passes, we could get torched. What has happened to our secondary?

 

[PhillyGirl]

Seems awfully high to me.

 

[TheChief]

On a side note, has anyone else noticed Saban picking his teeth when the team emerges after the half. Our gang was sitting around watching the game last week, and I said, "Well, Saban had something to eat at the half. He's picking his teeth again."

My friend said, "Yeah, he just ate Sims' ass!"

 

[UAgrad93]

On a side note, has anyone else noticed Saban picking his teeth when the team emerges after the half. Our gang was sitting around watching the game last week, and I said, "Well, Saban had something to eat at the half. He's picking his teeth again."

My friend said, "Yeah, he just ate Sims' ass!"

He probably had Cristobal's ass, Christion Jones' ass, Lane Kiffin's, Etc.

 

[It Takes Eleven]

I'm not a betting man. In fact, other than a standing annual bet with a co-worker of $5 on the Alabama Arkansas game, I have never, ever bet on Bama.

That is, EXCEPT the last two games, with Bama Bucks. I apologize. I have learned my lesson. It won't happen again. I expect we'll start playing much better now.

RTR,

Tim

 

[psychojoe]

Of course we know that the between the two times, spread is not a Vegas projection of the difference between the two teams, but rather a guess as to what spread will get the same action on each team. I think that we need to disregard the results aTm had against South Carolina as well as what we had against Florida in evaluating this game. If you look at the Aggies and consider that they were decisively defeated by both Mississippi schools, while we were in the Ole Miss game right to the end, even though it was a performance we are not proud of, you can get somewhere near the opening line. Having said that, 14 does seem a bit high.

 

[alabama mike]

Well, with my vast background knowledge of sports betting ( tongue firmly in check) I think the 14.5 spread is not high enough. :notworthy Gonna have to wait and see what the bookie puts out for this game.