🏀 Bama and 2018-19 Bracketology

[Bamaclam]

Probably be an 8 seed in the NIT and get beet by a team of 5'8" white guys that actually know how to play basketball.

 

[Bamaclam]

With the ebb and flow of the game and under the premise that Bama will have Avery for a 10 year run:

Making it to the Sweet 16 three of ten years.
Seven to eight of the ten years should be in the dance.
A final four? Between now and 2025 seeing one isn't unrealistic. Seeing that kind of team in in 2020 is a stretch, but seeing that kind of tournament showing in 2021 or later should not be out of the question.

Bama simply doesn't have the cache Kentucky does in basketball. The idea Bama should be able to duplicate that isn't unrealistic, but it would also require we have the same staff in place, recruiting at the same level, for at least a five year stretch if not longer.

My expectations going into this season were we'd see a better team—as we have—in a much tougher conference. I felt this years team should make it back to the dance. Anything less wouldn't necessarily be a step back, but a plateau the team found itself on this season due largely to the conference as a whole being tougher this season than last.

My expectation as far as how far this team can go in this years tournament? As with every one of the 64 it's all about the seeding and draw. People tend to look at teams like Houston, or Buffalo, and only look at them through the lens of their conference affiliation (another football comparison which has no place with basketball.)

A top four seed going into the SECT would be a case that far exceeded my expectations this season. Maintaining status quo would be starting play on Thursday at noon. Playing at 2:30 or later is another improvement over last season.

Does that answer your questions?

You actually think this team has a chance to even be in the NCAA Tourney?

 

[footballer]

And a NBA defense.

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

The post-game show is brought to you by... Christ, I can't find it. To hell with it.
Harry Doyle

 

[bama alum]

The post-game show is brought to you by... Christ, I can't find it. To hell with it.
Harry Doyle

You win rtb.com today!

 

[TerryP]

Nothing in yours related to winning percentage in SEC, top 25 appearances or ranking in the SEC as I had in mine?

That's a dynamic that's in play now, but a few years ago the winning percentage in conference didn't have as much value. It's been a bit since I've looked at the standings for the PAC in conference. Washington is running away with that title and hasn't beaten a ranked opponent yet. The second place teams has either as I recall. AZ State is sitting in there...fourth, fifth, somewhere like that...and they have a winning record against ranked teams. I've heard a few talk about it being a one bid conference this season. What's a winning percentage mean if you don't win the conference tournament.

I don't pay a lot of attention to the polls (top 25) but do follow the NET. According to what we're told, this is how this sport is measured today.

That said...I'd rather have a regular season title than a tournament title when it comes to the SEC. But that's a thread in and of itself. I do believe it's realistic to expect some Friday starts for the SECT.

And remember. A lot has to do with continuity.

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

Saw this regarding Avery and money owed him. How in the hell could you offer a contract to Avery with such a buyout?

quote...……
Should Johnson be terminated without cause between June 1 and April 15, 2018, the university would owe him $9 million. The amount drops down to $8 million between 2018-19, $6million between 2019-20, $4 million between 2020-21, $2 million between 2021-22 and $1 million between 2022-23.
If Johnson leaves Alabama without cause between 2017 and 2018, he would owe $3 million. The amount drops down to $2.5 million between 2018-2019, $2 million between 2019-2020, $1 million between 2020-21 and $500,000 between 2021-2022.

TideIllustrated - Avery Johnson, among 8 Alabama coaches to get new contracts

Alabama basketball head coach nets new deal.

alabama.rivals.com

John McEnroe...………."you can't be serious"

 

[TerryP]

NCAA TOURNAMENT RESUME

• Heading into Saturday night's game vs. Vanderbilt, Alabama is a combined 9-9 against Q1 and Q2 teams, owning 2-6 mark against Quadrant 1 opponents and a 7-3 record vs. teams in Quadrant 2 this season. Combined, UA's nine wins against Q1 and Q2 opposition this year trails only LSU (13), Kentucky (12), Mississippi State (12), Tennessee (11) and Auburn (10). Following Alabama is Ole Miss and South Carolina, both with seven combined Q1 and Q2 wins.

• Alabama boasts the conference's sixth-best winning percentage against Quadrant 1 and 2 opposition. The Tide's 9-9 mark equates to a .500 winning percentage, trailing only Tennessee (11-2, .846), Kentucky (12-4, .750), LSU (13-5, .722), Mississippi State (12-8, .600) and Auburn (10-8, .556).

• Alabama's seven Q2 wins not only rank in a tie for second in the SEC, but is tied for seventh nationally in the category.

• Alabama owns a 3-1 record against teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 and is 4-1 when playing teams ranked in the USA Today Coaches Poll this season. The three wins is tied for second in the SEC for most wins against ranked opponents (Kentucky has five, LSU has three). Furthermore, the Tide's .750 winning percentage against ranked opponents leads the SEC, ahead of Kentucky (5-2, .714) and LSU (3-2, .600).

• UA enters the game with a NET Ranking of No. 52 nationally, while owning the No. 29 overall strength of schedule. Of the Tide's remaining five regular season contests, four are projected to be against Q1 and Q2 opposition (Quadrant 1 remaining opponents – vs. LSU on March 2, vs. Auburn on March 5 and at Arkansas on March 9; Quadrant 2 remaining opponents – at South Carolina on Feb. 26).

• Alabama's three Quadrant 4 opponents is the lowest number among SEC schools (tied with LSU).

From RollTide.com

 

[#80]

I know this mean nothing but according to ESPN BPI these are the percentages for the last 4 games:

Vandy - 81% win
SC - 43% win
LSU - 43% win
Barn - 27% win
Arky - 40% win

 

[Max]

ESPN has a piece out that covers the NET and how flawed it is this season. It goes on to point out Auburn who is 2-6 against teams that have a shot at the tournament and also points out the two wins were at home. All the while they're saying "scoring margin doesn't matter" their MOV is what's keeping them where they are in the NET rankings as well as others like KenPom.

 

[TerryP]

 

[BamaFan334]

Big win. Happy to see this team roll with the punches and still fight. Last two games left some questions, but glad to see our boys have a little fire. On to the next one. I think we need two more wins, SEC Tournament included.

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

Congrats to Avery and the Team for a huge win. If they beat AU or LSU at home then they got a good chance to dance.

 

[TerryP]

I think we need two more wins, SEC Tournament included.

Congrats to Avery and the Team for a huge win. If they beat AU or LSU at home then they got a good chance to dance.

{An opinion that's based on what we're told the committee is considering when teams receive at-large bids.)

I've seen the "bubble watch" articles and comments as much as you have. However, I'm not fully buying them.

Going into the game against UofSC Bama was 9-10 in games against Q1 and Q2 opponents. There are less than a handful who have played that many games against that number of teams in the NET rankings. Now, we're looking at a Tide team that's 10-10 against competition (with a good chance UofSC moves into Q1 before the week is out.)

The next three games are against the same the quality of competition according to how they're ranked in the NET rankings. Even assuming Bama drops two of the next three, we're still looking at an 11-12 record against teams from these two quadrants.

That's not a resume that the selection committee puts on the bubble. It's a team that's in.

Throughout the last month or so you've seen my referencing the BracketMatrix on several occasions. It's a great indicator of where teams are as the season winds down. Based on their latest brackets the teams that'll take the #1 seed through the #9 seed and gives a pretty good picture on how the #10 seeds will fill out. There really aren't questions there.

Filling out the #10 seeds and starting to look at the #11 seeds we're left looking at three teams: Bama, Seton Hall, and Minnesota. Seton Hall isn't in the shape Bama and Minnesota are in (# of brackets projected.) Currently, out of the 118 brackets being covered Bama is in over 100 of them.

If you look at the teams they are calling "last ones in" you'll find a few teams that are looking at being included in between 60-70 brackets. From that point on the curve drops sharply. I've seen Butler projected as one of the play-in games. They are currently in @ 30 of the brackets.

"Bubble Watch" makes for a great headline. It's an eye catcher for anyone hoping their team has a chance at the tournament. However, based on what we're told we need to pay attention to this season—the NET rankings—it is my opinion a lot of it is click bait.

I think this team is in better shape for the tournament than a lot are giving it credit.

 

[#80]

@TerryP ....... I agree with your assessment of our chances we got in last year and we were two games below .500 in the conference albeit we won two games in the SEC tourney. I see us finishing at or above .500 this year. Based on Q1-Q2 wins we look good and last nights win on the road was big. It would not surprise me if we win 2 of the last 3 games.

 

[The Old Man and the Tide]

And here's an example of where some of these "state of the program" opinions fall short.

Pearl is in his fifth season at Auburn and CAJ is in his fourth.
Pearl has an SEC record of 33-47 at Auburn in conference play.
Johnson has an SEC record of 32-32 at Alabama in conference play.

One regular season of games and Pearl leads Avery by one game in the win column but Auburn's state of the program is better than Bama's?

While LSU is having a very good season, one year doesn't define the state of their program. Their track record is less than Bama's when you want to discuss the health of the program over the last few years or over the last decade (including Grant and Gottfried.)

FWIW, the last time I checked Auburn didn't have a single win against a Quadrant 1 opponent this season. That doesn't suggest a healthy program to me.

Pearl's first two years 9 wins and 27 losses in the SEC. But, his team could be sub .500 for the fourth time in five years after this season. Auburn is now 2-7 in quadrant 1 wins.

Alabama's Johnson...8-10, 10-8, 8-10, 8-7 so far and odds have them losing the last three, which would give them 8-10 seasons in three of four seasons.

I wouldn't say either program is vibrant.

 

[TerryP]

I wouldn't say either program is vibrant.

Compared to whom?

 

[EasyTider]

I’ve been very critical of H. Jones this year (offensively), but this piece made me feel bad . Great story and he’s never appeared to me as anything other than a hard worker and good teammate. Hopefully someone on the staff is working tirelessly with him to improve his shot.

 

[TerryP]

Someone put this together and posted it on Twitter. It's their "bubble teams" list.

Compare the resumes.

 

[Sgt. Lincoln Osiris]

Someone put this together and posted it on Twitter. It's their "bubble teams" list.

Compare the resumes.

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Did I ever tell you how I don't really care for the photo viewer here? Very finicky on a phone. Lol.

I know, free site. Freeloaders can't be choosers. So I can't gripe about EVERYTHING. lol.