🏀 Bama and 2018-19 Bracketology

[TerryP]

Only if attention to detail matters for success. I'll just go ahead and assume when we get together to discuss the specifics of what's going wrong it's just not interesting enough to you.

Are you now suggesting that the basketball staff doesn't pay attention to the small details? "Assuming" is what's skewed your outlook on what's happening with this team. Again, a subjective versus objective view.

Hey Terry, why don't we ask the fans about the state of the barners and Bama's basketball program? Do we have any videotape on the student sections of each team lately?

Here's a fact and you'll like it because I'm going to wrap it up nice and tight in a great big juicy statistic. Alabama basketball record in the SEC the last 4 years under Avery Johnson is 33-34. That record makes us a very average SEC team by anyone's standard. Johnson has only had one season that he has finished with a winning SEC record at 10-8. Not only are we a .500 SEC team for the last 4 years it looks like plenty more where that came from. Those are the statistical facts that matter most. No matter how many stats we want to pass around this forum on how we got here, we will always be exactly what our record says we are.

Wins and losses, imagine that?

Wait, I'm supposed to put trust in an Auburn fans opinion when I'm reading Bama fans opinions which are off base? Is increasing the number of people wrong somehow change the situation?

I've mentioned your "fact" about the SEC record under CAJ being a game under .500. I did in order to point out how you're comparing two programs, Alabama and Auburn, and are not using the same scales for your judgment. I'm not assuming a thing when I say this. I'm literally repeating what you're asserting.

We need to judge Avergy on his SEC record of 33-34. We need to look at the state of the program at Auburn, who, coincidentally, is 33-47 in SEC play over Pearl's tenure highlighted by one SEC conference winning season. And yet, here he is in the midst of his fourth losing season in SEC play.
Avery's first and third season: 8-2. Pearl's other seasons didn't reach the eight win mark. But, the health of that program is better.

These are "the statistical facts that matter most," according to what you've said. "Wins and losses, imagine that?"

And, btw, the day Alabama starts hanging curtains up to hide empty seats in Coleman is the day I'll consider comparing students on video tape to judge the health of the two programs.

 

[Max]

We need to judge Avergy on his SEC record of 33-34. We need to look at the state of the program at Auburn, who, coincidentally, is 33-47 in SEC play over Pearl's tenure highlighted by one SEC conference winning season. And yet, here he is in the midst of his fourth losing season in SEC play.
Avery's first and third season: 8-2. Pearl's other seasons didn't reach the eight win mark. But, the health of that program is better.

And no mention of three letter law enforcement agency.

 

[planomateo]

@mando Good listen, talks to expectations, gives a bit of history on Wimp and CM's teams and the NCAA tourney.

 

[TUSKtimes]

Are you now suggesting that the basketball staff doesn't pay attention to the small details? "Assuming" is what's skewed your outlook on what's happening with this team. Again, a subjective versus objective view.

Why yes, Terry, I believe I am saying that. And when Avery eventally gets fired, and we hire the new guy that will be subjective too.

Wait, I'm supposed to put trust in an Auburn fans opinion when I'm reading Bama fans opinions which are off base? Is increasing the number of people wrong somehow change the situation?

I've mentioned your "fact" about the SEC record under CAJ being a game under .500. I did in order to point out how you're comparing two programs, Alabama and Auburn, and are not using the same scales for your judgment. I'm not assuming a thing when I say this. I'm literally repeating what you're asserting.

We need to judge Avergy on his SEC record of 33-34. We need to look at the state of the program at Auburn, who, coincidentally, is 33-47 in SEC play over Pearl's tenure highlighted by one SEC conference winning season. And yet, here he is in the midst of his fourth losing season in SEC play.
Avery's first and third season: 8-2. Pearl's other seasons didn't reach the eight win mark. But, the health of that program is better.

These are "the statistical facts that matter most," according to what you've said. "Wins and losses, imagine that?"

And, btw, the day Alabama starts hanging curtains up to hide empty seats in Coleman is the day I'll consider comparing students on video tape to judge the health of the two programs.

We are the same SEC bubble team in year 4 as we were when Avery got here. All that barner comparision I couldn't care less.

Here's another guy that has his eye on the Tide. Someone without a dog in the fight.

Jay Bilas classifies every SEC team in the running to make the NCAA Tournament


Tier one: National championship favorites
#2 Tennessee
#5 Kentucky

Tier two: Final Four contenders
#13 LSU

Tier Three: Second-weekend contenders
#23 Auburn
#28 Mississippi State

Tier four: NCAA tournament-worthy teams
#31 Ole Miss
#40 Florida
#43 Arkansas

Tier five: Scratching for at-large berths
#46 Alabama

 

[Max]

What do your statistics say about turnovers, objectively speaking?

The best game Bama had this season with the fewest turnovers was a loss against A&M.
The worst game Bama had this season with the fewest turnovers was a win against Murray State (a projected first round opponent for LSU via ESPN.)
Out of the 10 worst games Bama had this season with turnovers they've won six. Out of those six games they shot over .700 from the charity stripe which is another example of looking at a small detail and using it as a reason for a loss.

 

[planomateo]

NCAA Net rankings. I find this puzzling.

 

[TUSKtimes]

So now you have CAJ being fired in spite of showing year to year improvement? Getting fired, in spite of the program being in better shape today than it's been in a decade.

Do you see why I question your perspectives here?

I'd feel a lot better if you took on my reasoning points instead. Should be about 2 pages of them by now.

So, you're suggesting I need to pay attention to what Bilas has to say (lost my ear years ago with more concern about social issues than covering the game of basketball) versus the 107 brackets that have Bama playing in the tourney? One man, saying "scratching for a berth," with 107 (out of 107) brackets giving the Tide a berth. I'm supposed to pay attention to a guy that doesn't do brackets versus the 100+ that do.

Boy...we are NOT on the same page much less in the same book.

No, you should be paying attention to what I'm saying and why I'm saying it. Bilas, the basketball guru, merely agrees with me. Try to keep up.

 

[Max]

I was trying to edit a misspelled word and deleted the post.

 

[TerryP]

I was trying to edit a misspelled word and deleted the post.

Nothing can be done about that. Sorry.

 

[TerryP]

No, you should be paying attention to what I'm saying and why I'm saying it. Bilas, the basketball guru, merely agrees with me. Try to keep up.

How is he a guru when what he's saying goes against every bracket out there? Or, better yet, how is he a guru considering the stance he took on VCU several years ago (a team he said didn't belong, but made it to the final four?)

Now that you've reached the point of saying Avery is going to be fired—when there's not a single breath or mention of such within the confines of the athletic department—you've jumped the shark trying to support your opinion.

Geez, man. At one point in this conversation you're saying how much better the health is at Auburn and in the next breath you're saying "you couldn't care less." You're mentioning Avery's .500 record with no regard or attention paid to Pearl's .400 record over more time.

I'm getting this mental analogy of an art critic who's criticizing the artist's signature with little, if any, attention paid to the work itself.

 

[TerryP]

NCAA Net rankings. I find this puzzling.

#5 in the net ratings criteria...believe we've touched on this before. They have eight wins this season by more than 10. But, as a prime example of the fallacy of this new NCAA system, against whom isn't taken into consideration. They did have a W against Washington early on--which at the time was a Q1 win--but no longer. They've not beaten another ranked team all season and likely won't (UT and UK left.)

 

[LeGarrette]

@planomateo

 

[bama alum]

Hmm...

 

[EasyTider]

Meanwhile, down 15-4 to average Florida team at home in must win situation. Looks like we’re running the Grant offense.

 

[mando]

At this point it's unrealistic to think Bama should be in the tournament nine of ten years. Kentucky, the bell cow of this conference, has reached the tournament eight of the last ten seasons with one of those including a first round exit in the NIT. Drawing comparisons between the two programs is a lot like comparing the strategy of chess and checkers--some is the same but that list ends pretty quickly.

@TerryP

How would you define success for bama basketball?

Here was mine and looks like the first one you think is unrealistic since you pointed out Kentucky is not even doing that. How would you change it? Once you agree on a standard it is easier to measure is bama basketball achieving it.

Success would be

1. You hear things like 9 out of the last 10 years Bama has been an NCAA tournament team
2. consistently in the top 25
3. win 75% (win 3 lose 1) of SEC games,
4. top 3 of SEC.

I am pretty sure being down by double digits at home late in the first half is below that standard. Sorry had to express some frustration with how they are playing today smh...

 

[#80]

We have no chance in this game if we continue to miss FT's.

 

[TerryP]

Here was mine and looks like the first one you think is not realistic.

With the ebb and flow of the game and under the premise that Bama will have Avery for a 10 year run:

Making it to the Sweet 16 three of ten years.
Seven to eight of the ten years should be in the dance.
A final four? Between now and 2025 seeing one isn't unrealistic. Seeing that kind of team in in 2020 is a stretch, but seeing that kind of tournament showing in 2021 or later should not be out of the question.

Bama simply doesn't have the cache Kentucky does in basketball. The idea Bama should be able to duplicate that isn't unrealistic, but it would also require we have the same staff in place, recruiting at the same level, for at least a five year stretch if not longer.

My expectations going into this season were we'd see a better team—as we have—in a much tougher conference. I felt this years team should make it back to the dance. Anything less wouldn't necessarily be a step back, but a plateau the team found itself on this season due largely to the conference as a whole being tougher this season than last.

My expectation as far as how far this team can go in this years tournament? As with every one of the 64 it's all about the seeding and draw. People tend to look at teams like Houston, or Buffalo, and only look at them through the lens of their conference affiliation (another football comparison which has no place with basketball.)

A top four seed going into the SECT would be a case that far exceeded my expectations this season. Maintaining status quo would be starting play on Thursday at noon. Playing at 2:30 or later is another improvement over last season.

Does that answer your questions?

 

[EasyTider]

FWIW, Cecil appears to be growing tired of the lil general’s schitt show.

 

[mando]

With the ebb and flow of the game and under the premise that Bama will have Avery for a 10 year run:

Making it to the Sweet 16 three of ten years.
Seven to eight of the ten years should be in the dance.
A final four? Between now and 2025 seeing one isn't unrealistic. Seeing that kind of team in in 2020 is a stretch, but seeing that kind of tournament showing in 2021 or later should not be out of the question.

Bama simply doesn't have the cache Kentucky does in basketball. The idea Bama should be able to duplicate that isn't unrealistic, but it would also require we have the same staff in place, recruiting at the same level, for at least a five year stretch if not longer.

My expectations going into this season were we'd see a better team—as we have—in a much tougher conference. I felt this years team should make it back to the dance. Anything less wouldn't necessarily be a step back, but a plateau the team found itself on this season due largely to the conference as a whole being tougher this season than last.

My expectation as far as how far this team can go in this years tournament? As with every one of the 64 it's all about the seeding and draw. People tend to look at teams like Houston, or Buffalo, and only look at them through the lens of their conference affiliation (another football comparison which has no place with basketball.)

A top four seed going into the SECT would be a case that far exceeded my expectations this season. Maintaining status quo would be starting play on Thursday at noon. Playing at 2:30 or later is another improvement over last season.

Does that answer your questions?

Yes. BTW a final four would exceed what anyone has done at bama.

Summarizing yours as I understand what you were saying:
70% of the time make the tournament
30% of the time make sweet 16.
Making it to a final 4 appearance (1 in 10 years?) - I would be over the top if this happened. Wimp got us to sweet 16's but that's as far as I think he ever got. I think we have made an elite 8 under Gottfried.

Nothing in yours related to winning percentage in SEC, top 25 appearances or ranking in the SEC as I had in mine?

 

[bama alum]

NIT! NIT! NIT!