🏈 After Three Games - Predict Alabama's Season Record

[riz]

It's kinda odd because we're just going about about our business with little fanfare. Look how Jeckyll and Hyde so many other teams have looked. We're gonna be a tough out for anybody.

 

[TerryP]

I posted it on another thread about Coop. Kiffin has put Coop in the slot, in motion, etc. to make him the first or second option in the progression. On the deep balls that we have missed, the progression often reads like this. Peek deep to see if your man has a step, if he does send it down, if not break off to 2nd and 3rd progression.

Adding to that, when the defense is giving the cushion they've given in the first two games?

Have you noticed the time elapsed between the snap and release on passing plays? I've not timed it, but I'm pretty confident in saying we're around 4-5 seconds.

It's kinda odd because we're just going about about our business with little fanfare. Look how Jeckyll and Hyde so many other teams have looked. We're gonna be a tough out for anybody.

One thing that has stuck out to me is the balance we're seeing on offense. I'm one that looks at total yards as the main indicator. This season there's very little discrepancy in passing attempts and rushing attempts.

Right now, we're throwing the ball as much as our opponents. I looked at that number earlier today and if I recall correctly we've had 101 passing attempts against us, we've thrown it 95 times. (Rushing attempts 130 I believe.) There's less than 100 yards difference in yardage when rushing and passing are compared.

 

[TerryP]

i will say the confusion on offense concerns me as much as anything. I can only imagine that it will cause more trouble in a loud, non-friendly environment.

Funny thing about that.

One could look at Baylor and say "they've got great communication, look at the number of plays they're getting in every game." However, a deeper look shows they have 28 more plays than we have had, against Southern Methodist, Northwestern State, and Buffalo.

FWIW, WVU had 108 last weekend but only around 50 more on the season.

 

[jdpas29]

so you're saying the confusion is ok because we're running at a faster pace anyway and the play still gets in and happens? i guess that makes sense. still looks bad.

 

[UAgrad93]

@TerryP We were taught as QBs to look at plays like this, softest corner, shortest throw on quick throws like outs, hitches or stops, curls. On the throws that have a deep route, peek deep then 2nd and 3rd read in progression. I'm with you in saying that IF a defense wants Coop to catch the ball, by all means get it to him. We do need to involve others, but at the same time. If they want to die by "THE COOP" why not give it to them!?!

 

[BamaFan334]

Improvement? The move with Landon playing the Money position in dime paid dividends immediately. We're seeing guys come into their own; Allen is one example. It's interesting everyone talked about Blake and all he was doing was throwing quick outs then we have a game where he doesn't throw a single one and we continue with the same offensive production.

Have you considered that Cooper is the first read in many of our progressions and there hasn't been a defender within five yards of him 75%+ of the time? I don't disagree with the point of having more guys involved. But, if the first guy is as open as Coop has been do you want the QB to move to the second read?

Yes, our defense is allowing passing yards. But, they aren't allowing touchdowns or rushing yards. Rhetorically, I posed a question about a bend but don't break defense a few days ago but I assure you there was a point.

BTW, all those passing yards we gave up against WVU? Did you know there are only two QB's in FBS that have more passing yards than Trickett does?

You can discount stats if you like under the premise we haven't played anyone. But, no one else has either. After three games we're beginning to get a clear picture of what this team is made of just like the other teams around the NCAA.

I completely agree that Cooper could easily be the first read in most plays. He's the best receiver in America, so I can imagine he's open more than others. Do I want him to throw it to someone else just to appease me? Of course not, but he is locking on him, Coach Saban has even said it. We have too much talent to focus on one player. Hate to keep harping on it, but OJ Howard is not as smothered as his stats show. He's open, I've seen him open. Sims is going where he's comfortable, and that's fine! But soon, good defenses will pick up on that. Vernon hargreaves III will be all over Cooper Saturday, so we'll need to hope Coop beats him or that we can go to another option.

As far as your comments about people not playing anyone, I would have to disagree. Oregon and Michigan State, Florida State and Oklahoma State, LSU and Wisconsin, Auburn and Arkansas, Texas A&M and South Carolina, Georgia and Clemson, Georgia and South Carolina, Oklahoma and Tennessee, Stanford and USC have all played. That's some decent games. West Virginia was a tough out, just like I assumed, and it showed as we were worried until the end of the game. Either way, I'm simply saying we're not playing like the #3 team in the nation. I, like others, know we have the talent to go undefeated, but we have to put it together. This weekend will be the true test of what we have. Say what you want about Florida this past weekend, but kentucky is improved, just like Arkansas, tennessee, and Mississippi State. The SEC is as deep as ever this year and will cannibalize itself. Should be a lot of good games, but of course I don't like thinking about us losing games.

 

[TerryP]

@uagrad93 I expect UF to press. I also expect to see Kiffin rolling Blake out which will eventually lead to their corners watching containment and end up getting beaten...outside linebackers cheating up to cover the ends (where we're having the most success running) which will open up slant routes as well.

 

[TerryP]

@BamaFan334 Like you, I've seen OJ open as well. However, in situations where he's been open we haven't seen Blake trying to force a pass into coverage just to hit another receiver: hence, no INT's. I've seen some bad throws, some missed receivers, but not what I'd call bad decisions because he's going to Coop on his first read.

Now, I haven't read/seen/heard Saban say that about Blake locking on to Coop. The hours I've been putting in the last three weeks haven't allowed me to watch his pressers. I'd like to hear it...got a link?

You're missing the point, I fear, on the statement that other teams haven't played anyone either. Yes, Stanford played USC. However, they've also played UC Davis and Army. I don't see how you can pull two games (Southern Miss and FAU) and discount what they've meant but laud a single game from another team as an indicator. It's the whole picture. West Virginia, and the success they had, has to be taken in context with the defensive guys we didn't have as well as the success Trickett is having as a whole. I'll remain in my stance taken after that game; WVU has a very good offense this season. It's not a game you can take as an indicator of how the season will end.

What did A&M vs UofSC tell us? One, UofSC doesn't have a defensive line and their secondary has issues. That's backed up by the 'Cocks giving up more yards against East Carolina than it did the Aggies. Then, giving up more yards against UGA than either of those two. Two, they aren't what they are cracked up to be even with the point they'll have a good chance of winning the East.

We're not playing like the #3 team in the nation despite leading the nation in rushing defense, 12th in total offense, 11th in total defense...

It's not as bad as people are making it out to be. While this team might be called pedestrian in how they look you can't argue with the results. I realize that people point to pass defense. I also realize that the changes in how the clock is ran and the advent of so many teams running a hurry up style has fundamentally changed the game.

 

[psychojoe]

@BamaFan334

It's not as bad as people are making it out to be. While this team might be called pedestrian in how they look you can't argue with the results. I realize that people point to pass defense. I also realize that the changes in how the clock is ran and the advent of so many teams running a hurry up style has fundamentally changed the game.

The hurry up is this year's fad offense. Most teams that us it want to keep defenses in something vanilla and throw the quick slants and curl routs that are hard to cover in a base defense, and the ball comes out so quickly that it is not easy to get heat on the passer because the ball comes out so quickly. It is something of an equalizer for a less talented, smaller team. With so many teams running it, defenses will be catching up. As Terry has said, while we are not a hurry up team, yet we are running more plays per game than many teams who are, and we ran more plays than W Va. did in our game with them. Our defense is getting itself off the field. There is a stat we are not talking about here. Our D has given up one touchdown in three games, none in the last ten quarters.

I expect us to be crisper on offense this week. Concentration will be the highest it has been because it is the first SEC game, and because Florida is a respected opponent.

 

[UAgrad93]

Agreed @psychojoe ! The HUNH is good as long as you execute. A lot of three and outs and putting a gassed defense back on the field will cause it to pass like any other offense that has come before it. I wouldn't really call our offense a HUNH, but more of a Hurry To The Line And Then Call The Play. Being able to run almost all of our offense without subbing causes just as much damage than rotating personnel groupings. I like being able to go 21 personnel and then the next play go 4 and even 5 wide.

 

[We All Bleed Crimson]

While everything in me wants a perfect record and another national championship, the secondary and, to a lesser extent, the OL have me concerned.
Everything should get better as the season progresses (barring injuries) but October will be a hard month. At Ole Miss (a darn good team), at Arkansas (this will really test the DL and LBs), at home versus Texas A/M (the DBs really better play well), and at Tennessee (rival game on the road following a tough month) - presents a lot of challenge. Then LSU (the OL better be rock solid) and the iron bowl.... Unless there is significant improvement, there could be a couple of losses in this lineup.
I see the worst case being 10 - 3.
Realistic, as of today, 12-2.

 

[BamaFan334]

@BamaFan334 Like you, I've seen OJ open as well. However, in situations where he's been open we haven't seen Blake trying to force a pass into coverage just to hit another receiver: hence, no INT's. I've seen some bad throws, some missed receivers, but not what I'd call bad decisions because he's going to Coop on his first read.

Now, I haven't read/seen/heard Saban say that about Blake locking on to Coop. The hours I've been putting in the last three weeks haven't allowed me to watch his pressers. I'd like to hear it...got a link?

You're missing the point, I fear, on the statement that other teams haven't played anyone either. Yes, Stanford played USC. However, they've also played UC Davis and Army. I don't see how you can pull two games (Southern Miss and FAU) and discount what they've meant but laud a single game from another team as an indicator. It's the whole picture. West Virginia, and the success they had, has to be taken in context with the defensive guys we didn't have as well as the success Trickett is having as a whole. I'll remain in my stance taken after that game; WVU has a very good offense this season. It's not a game you can take as an indicator of how the season will end.

What did A&M vs UofSC tell us? One, UofSC doesn't have a defensive line and their secondary has issues. That's backed up by the 'Cocks giving up more yards against East Carolina than it did the Aggies. Then, giving up more yards against UGA than either of those two. Two, they aren't what they are cracked up to be even with the point they'll have a good chance of winning the East.

We're not playing like the #3 team in the nation despite leading the nation in rushing defense, 12th in total offense, 11th in total defense...

It's not as bad as people are making it out to be. While this team might be called pedestrian in how they look you can't argue with the results. I realize that people point to pass defense. I also realize that the changes in how the clock is ran and the advent of so many teams running a hurry up style has fundamentally changed the game.

Comments on Amari and spreading it around...

http://www.al.com/alabamafootball/index.ssf/2014/09/too_much_amari_cooper_nick_sab.html

I completely understand where you're coming from, and I'm not trying to act ignorant or anything for that matter, but just saying I haven't seen much improvement. As far as those defensive rankings, we've played Florida Atlantic and Southern Mississippi. Two of the worst teams in Division I. I don't consider being number one in rushing defense that much of an accomplishment against those teams, and against a West Virginia team that throws a ton and spreads the defense out. They ran the ball like twenty times with six different guys, so it's safe to say they don't project much of a running game threat. And some of those runs are trickeration type plays like they ran against Maryland. They shreded our defense by running the quick slants, dinks and dunks. Our 3-4 defense offers very little of a pass rush against this kind of offense. Yes, we have some great talent on the defensive line, but three against five isn't promising odds for anyone, no matter how good you are. The one touchdown being given up is a great accomplishment, but that will not hold up against more quality competition. If we can do that against Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and a Tennessee then I will fold my argument and completely agree with everything you're saying. Look, I'm not trying to act like we suck, because I think we are still the most talented team in the country with the most potential upside. I'm just saying that we aren't looking as good as we should with the coaching and the players we have.

 

[jlabit]

I said a few days ago that I didn't feel we were in the top 5 nationally. I still feel that way. However, the teams mentioned that we play soon are not top 5 teams either. We have the talent to win the National Championship. Unfortunately that talent is inexperienced. I feel fairly confident we can beat Ole Miss, Texas A&M in a shootout, and LSU, who hasn't really shown me an outstanding offense, especially using the pass with their new quarterback. Auburn makes me extremely nervous, but thankfully, we get them at home. If we make it to the final four, that gives our young talent some time to gain experience. We need some luck, hoping the ball bounces our way more than theirs, and we need some luck with the injury issue. But every NC team we have had since 2009 has had some luck play into it in each of those years.

 

[TheChief]

Comments on Amari and spreading it around...

http://www.al.com/alabamafootball/index.ssf/2014/09/too_much_amari_cooper_nick_sab.html

I completely understand where you're coming from, and I'm not trying to act ignorant or anything for that matter, but just saying I haven't seen much improvement. As far as those defensive rankings, we've played Florida Atlantic and Southern Mississippi. Two of the worst teams in Division I. I don't consider being number one in rushing defense that much of an accomplishment against those teams, and against a West Virginia team that throws a ton and spreads the defense out. They ran the ball like twenty times with six different guys, so it's safe to say they don't project much of a running game threat. And some of those runs are trickeration type plays like they ran against Maryland. They shreded our defense by running the quick slants, dinks and dunks. Our 3-4 defense offers very little of a pass rush against this kind of offense. Yes, we have some great talent on the defensive line, but three against five isn't promising odds for anyone, no matter how good you are. The one touchdown being given up is a great accomplishment, but that will not hold up against more quality competition. If we can do that against Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and a Tennessee then I will fold my argument and completely agree with everything you're saying. Look, I'm not trying to act like we suck, because I think we are still the most talented team in the country with the most potential upside. I'm just saying that we aren't looking as good as we should with the coaching and the players we have.

Tennessee has been awful running the ball.

 

[BamaFan334]

Tennessee has been awful running the ball.

They arguably played Oklahoma as well as we did. Two red zone interceptions and they're right in the thick of it. Just a lot of youth in Knoxville. I know somewhat apples and oranges considering it's a new season, but they're gonna be a tough out for everyone this year. Just like Kentucky to some degree.

 

[TheChief]

Take away two runs by Hurd...Not to mention the two games before Oklahoma. They cannot run the ball.

 

[bcracker]

I've always been a the-glass-is-half-empty kind of guy. After all, pessimists are never disappointed.

With that said, I'm not getting the warm-and-fuzzies with this year's team. TerryP's and other RTBers's positive analytically musings have given me bunny slippers, but I haven't muster the fortitude to put them on yet.

I keep having nightmares of the secondary getting eaten alive by SEC quarterbacks and the offense not being able to make up the difference. Last year's TAM game comes to mind. We were able to survive Sumlin's offense then, but this year...? One question that remains to be answered is can we put up enough points to hang with the better offenses we'll face?

Additionally, Kiffin has focused on shorter passing routes thus far, with great success. If SEC defenses successfully shut down these routes (and they are taking notice, or will) can Sims air it out consistently enough to be successful?

The WVU game becomes more disturbing when considered with the last point, especially after Maryland hung with them the way they did. I know teams play differently week to week, but Maryland? What are they ranked, 50? They put up 37 points on WVU. And took them to the wire.

Our secondary continues to receive considerable critical attention, and justifiably so, in my opinion. The same was true last year. Personally I don't see a marked improvement with that group this year. (If someone disagrees please show me where I'm wrong.)

WVU, with a "frail" QB, camped out in BAMA's red zone all night. I realize they were kept out of the end zone for the most part, but what were they doing there to begin with? There's not many frail QBs in the SEC.

I've said it before: there seems to be a lot of confusion on both sides of the ball. Trey seemed to get frustrated with communications from the sideline several times against SM (admittedly a possible misinterpretation on my part). Confusion, if it does exist, against SEC play is a recipe for a long year.

Again, I'm a crepehanger (how 'bout that for a word of the day), so take everything I say with a couple of pinches of salt. I don't like the trait, but it's the way I'm wired. Maybe I wasn't hugged enough as a child.

Also, I don't mind a pot of crow from time to time when I'm in the wrong, especially when it comes to Alabama football. I prefer it fried in bacon grease with a little of that sauce no one can pronounce or spell, but If the boys make the playoffs this year I'll eat it any way my RTB brethren choose to serve it up.

 

[planomateo]

My understanding, the chemistry on the team is better than its been in years. If you listen to several of Saban's pressers this year he's hinted at this.

I'm looking forward to watching them grow throughout the year.

 

[TerryP]

The hurry up is this year's fad offense. Most teams that us it want to keep defenses in something vanilla and throw the quick slants and curl routs that are hard to cover in a base defense, and the ball comes out so quickly that it is not easy to get heat on the passer because the ball comes out so quickly. It is something of an equalizer for a less talented, smaller team. With so many teams running it, defenses will be catching up. As Terry has said, while we are not a hurry up team, yet we are running more plays per game than many teams who are, and we ran more plays than W Va. did in our game with them. Our defense is getting itself off the field. There is a stat we are not talking about here. Our D has given up one touchdown in three games, none in the last ten quarters.

I expect us to be crisper on offense this week. Concentration will be the highest it has been because it is the first SEC game, and because Florida is a respected opponent.

There's a salient point there.

Roper has wanted Driskell to get the pass off within three seconds of the snap. Take that scheme, and then look at where we were attacked last week: slipping the H-back behind the middle linebackers.

 

[TerryP]

@jlabit I'm curious, who do you take and put in the top five? I suspect, given the teams that are in the top 10, there are as many (if not more) question marks surrounding their team as Bama.

@bcracker Don't mistake pointing to what's reflected in statistical observations with "pumping sunshine." I see the same issues many voice here.

However, I also have to take into account that it'll take a "best game of the year" type of performance from a quarterback to put us on the losing end. Right now, I don't think Bo Wallace has that in him. He's yet to prove it—to me, at least. LSU is built to run. We're built to stop the run. A&M? One dimensional team—seldom fares well.

And last, but not least, give me the mindset of Bama over that of Auburn. Not sold.