🏈 After Three Games - Predict Alabama's Season Record

[TerryP]

Comments on Amari and spreading it around...

http://www.al.com/alabamafootball/index.ssf/2014/09/too_much_amari_cooper_nick_sab.html

I completely understand where you're coming from, and I'm not trying to act ignorant or anything for that matter, but just saying I haven't seen much improvement. As far as those defensive rankings, we've played Florida Atlantic and Southern Mississippi. Two of the worst teams in Division I. I don't consider being number one in rushing defense that much of an accomplishment against those teams, and against a West Virginia team that throws a ton and spreads the defense out. They ran the ball like twenty times with six different guys, so it's safe to say they don't project much of a running game threat. And some of those runs are trickeration type plays like they ran against Maryland. They shreded our defense by running the quick slants, dinks and dunks. Our 3-4 defense offers very little of a pass rush against this kind of offense. Yes, we have some great talent on the defensive line, but three against five isn't promising odds for anyone, no matter how good you are. The one touchdown being given up is a great accomplishment, but that will not hold up against more quality competition. If we can do that against Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and a Tennessee then I will fold my argument and completely agree with everything you're saying. Look, I'm not trying to act like we suck, because I think we are still the most talented team in the country with the most potential upside. I'm just saying that we aren't looking as good as we should with the coaching and the players we have.

We all have different viewpoints. From mine, I'm beginning to see a team coming together. I'm also seeing what I consider left over feelings from WVU being projected on the entire season and I don't believe you can do that.

FWIW, that's an article I read. It doesn't mention Saban saying Coop is being "locked on." It mentions the need for more guys to be involved, sure. But, we're circling around here. If Coop is the first, or second read, and he's open...what do we expect Blake to do?

Don't misunderstand me here. I was under the impression Blake was locking onto Coop at first. I watched the games again and start looking at where Coop was lining up and what the natural progression should be. Now, I've got a different impression.

 

[bcracker]

@TerryP I'm not saying you're "pumping sunshine." I was expressing my appreciation to you and others for helping me see things about this team that I have missed. As I said in my original post, at times I can allow the negatives of a given situation obscure the bigger picture. Instead of importing sunshine to otherwise cloudy circumstances, I find your "positive musings" (no slam intended here) objective and well reasoned.

 

[Joe]

"I'm also seeing what I consider left over feelings from WVU being projected on the entire season and I don't believe you can do that".-Terry P
Bingo. I think that ESPN built the football watching world up to expect an Alabama blowout against WV, but when it did not happen, it led many to think Alabama is not as good this season. I can remember a few seasons in the recent past where I have not felt too confident about our team winning the NC and we did. It is just too soon to be pessimistic. I think we will learn a lot about this team on Saturday.

 

[jdpas29]

IMO two things must happen for Bama to win a NC this year.
1.) The secondary must get things a bit tighter.
2.) The long passing game needs to be developed a bit using Sims.

 

[252BAMA]

12-0!

 

[TerryP]

IMO two things must happen for Bama to win a NC this year.
1.) The secondary must get things a bit tighter.
2.) The long passing game needs to be developed a bit using Sims.

I know I've mentioned it here already, but I'm very much behind the move of Landon to Money and Geno at Star in our dime. It gives the run support we need from the Money and the quick passing coverage we need over the middle with Geno.

I KNOW Florida is going to try to drop a guy behind our MLB's...we'll see some bad, and I suspect some good, when they implement that scheme this week.

 

[jlabit]

TerrryP, in answer to your question, I see the top five as: 1. FSU 2. Oregon 3. Oklahoma 4. I cannot pick a solid #4 or 5. It could be Bama, Auburn, or Texas A & M. If forced I would probably pick TA&M as #4 based on their win over South Carolina. As I said earlier in a post, Bama could go undefeated and win it all. TA&M is going to wear us out with the pass. Can we score almost every time we have the ball like last year? If we still had AJ McCarron, yes we could. And as I said in an earlier post, we will need some luck to win it all. But that is the case every year with every team that wins it. My main point is that with our problems in the secondary, we are going to need a lot of luck.

 

[UAgrad93]

@jlabit I honestly think our secondary will be better by the time the A&M game rolls around. Think about it for a second. By the time that game rolls around, we will have seen so many teams playing the up tempo style, that we will have grown from and corrected mistakes. Like when your mom told you to not touch that stove because it was hot but you did anyways to see if she was telling the truth. One thing I see though. We haven't had busted coverages and given up 50-60yd+ bombs for TDs. We have kept things in front of us. I'd rather us bat a ball down or pick it, but I'm happy with a 12yd catch being a 12yd catch.

 

[jlabit]

uagrad93 Sure hope you are right. I was really expecting to see some considerable improvement from 2013 to 2014. Unfortunately I see defenders covering the receivers close, but have no idea where the ball is, the same as I saw last year. I watched the USCe/Texas A&M game and it gave me the creeps watching Brandon Hill doing as he wanted with the USCe secondary. Like I said, if we had McCarron back, I would watch as we matched score for score. I honestly believe we will beat A&M but I dread that game. My gut, and my knowledge tells me that 6 consecutive top recruiting classes means something. I think we will all learn a lot more about our team this weekend.

 

[TerryP]

TerrryP, in answer to your question, I see the top five as: 1. FSU 2. Oregon 3. Oklahoma 4. I cannot pick a solid #4 or 5. It could be Bama, Auburn, or Texas A & M. If forced I would probably pick TA&M as #4 based on their win over South Carolina. As I said earlier in a post, Bama could go undefeated and win it all. TA&M is going to wear us out with the pass. Can we score almost every time we have the ball like last year? If we still had AJ McCarron, yes we could. And as I said in an earlier post, we will need some luck to win it all. But that is the case every year with every team that wins it. My main point is that with our problems in the secondary, we are going to need a lot of luck.

I've been trying to point to what the offense has been doing these last few days mentioning things like Blake and his third down completion, where the team is on offense, etc.

I didn't bother pulling numbers from archives. I did believe we were seeing as good of, if not better, offensive numbers this season than any in Saban's tenure. (I did look at 3rd down conversions through 2008, best year ever so far.) As it ends up the offensive numbers aren't only just the best we've had under Saban, but also the best in the first three games than any team over 40 years at Bama.

Moving to a slightly different point:

"If forced I would probably pick TA&M as #4 based on their win over South Carolina."

Here's another issue I think people are looking at incorrectly. What does that game tell you?

UofSC moves to a 3-4 defense this season due to personnel issues. Now, this is the third defensive scheme they've played in three years: Ellis Johnson's being the first. It's ironic Spurrier makes the comments about recruiting and Saban and finds himself with the wrong personnel to run the 3-4.

Add to that losing practically their entire DL sans one, I believe (Surratte.) Secondary very young while playing a new scheme and they end up facing the Aggies.

I made the comment to @planomateo the Thursday of that A&M vs UofSC game that I didn't expect the Aggies offensive production to drop off—his days in Houston are just one example of why they wouldn't. That said, I didn't expect UofSC's defense to be that bad.

Now, just as a measuring stick to how bad UofSC's defense has been, not just against A&M, but this season:



Notice things like total yards, getting worse as the season has progressed. Number of plays allowed...

Not this weekend, but next, A&M plays Arkansas. Let me see how they defend the run before I start fretting about our game, based on South Carolina playing A&M, with that 'Cock team.

 

[TerryP]

@TerryP I'm not saying you're "pumping sunshine." I was expressing my appreciation to you and others for helping me see things about this team that I have missed. As I said in my original post, at times I can allow the negatives of a given situation obscure the bigger picture. Instead of importing sunshine to otherwise cloudy circumstances, I find your "positive musings" (no slam intended here) objective and well reasoned.

Gotcha.

Idle thought this morning.

You've seen people mention the defense has only allowed one touchdown this year. Then comes the Southern Miss/FAU argument...

But going back to that one touchdown, what do you remember? Sylve not turning around or the pass (Trickett) and the great catch by the wide receiver (White?)
*Not the only highlight catch by White this season.

 

[bcracker]

Gotcha.

Idle thought this morning.

You've seen people mention the defense has only allowed one touchdown this year. Then comes the Southern Miss/FAU argument...

But going back to that one touchdown, what do you remember? Sylve not turning around or the pass (Trickett) and the great catch by the wide receiver (White?)
*Not the only highlight catch by White this season.

Yes, I do remember Sylve not breaking up the pass instead of Trickett making a perfect throw and White a great catch. That's my black skirt showing there.

It's hard for me to watch Alabama football objectively. It gets rowdy at my house at game time. The whole family experiences temporary insanity, including Sweetater, my wife. She is from West Virginia (Saban's hometown, in fact), but she went to college at UNA and spent most of her adult life in God's country. Her introduction to football in Alabama came her first week in town. She was at the mall in Florence on Iron Bowl day. One minute the mall was packed with Saturday shoppers, and the next minute it was a ghost town.

She asked a clerk, "What's going on? Where did everybody go?"

"Oh, Honey." said the clerk. "You're not from around here, are you? It's the Iron Bowl."

"What's the Iron Bowl?"

"Oh, Dear. This is going to take a while."

The clerk then explained the significance of the day and the entire football season to Alabamians to my future wife. So she was thoroughly schooled and a rabid Alabama fan by the time I met her.

My 12 year old son watches the game like a 60 year old man, sans cursing. He yells at the refs, screams at the players, and cries at every loss. My oldest son (14) is the coolest head in the house. He doesn't yell a lot, but he twitches and jerks like a jonesing crack-head during the more dramatic moments of games. He thinks like you, TerryP, he sees the positives in this team.

After the SM game, I was whining and complaining about all the "negatives" I saw in the the game, and he was like, "Dad, you're crazy. This is a great team." He then wrote out his projection of the Florida game and hung it on the fridge:


Yeah, I'm proud. I'm happy to see my boys are carrying on the tradition! Roll Tide!

Anyway, something else is bothering me about Alabama, and perhaps you can shed some light on the subject for me. We've had the number one recruiting class for the pass, what, five years? This team has a TON of talent, no doubt, but are they reaching there potential? It seems to me, with the talent we have, we should have blown West Virginia off the field.