Ironically,
Stewart Mandel covers the same thoughts/questions in his weekend recap of college football.
Every year around this time, fans start freaking out over the possibility of an undefeated power-conference team being excluded from the BCS championship game. Every year except one (2004), late-season upsets have eventually rendered that worrying moot.
This season, however, feel free to commence the freak-out.
The calendar will turn to November this week with six power-conference teams -- Alabama (8-0), Oregon (8-0), Florida State (7-0), Ohio State (8-0), Baylor (7-0) and Miami (7-0) -- still unbeaten. If that number seems like a lot, that's because it is. There haven't been this many undefeated teams from among the five power conferences and Notre Dame at the start of November since there were seven in 2002 -- and four of those went on to lose on Nov. 1. This year's total will fall by at least one next Saturday after the Seminoles and Hurricanes meet in Tallahassee. But there will be no other head-to-head meetings among the group after that.
Another reason this year feels different is that most of the unbeaten teams aren't just winning. They're dominating. The Ducks have yet to win a game by fewer than 21 points. Florida State's closest victory came by 14 points, and its next closest came by 28. The Tide had one close call against Texas A&M on Sept. 14 and have since outscored six foes by an average margin of 41-4. Baylor's 59 points against Kansas on Saturday were its second-
lowest scoring output of the season. And Ohio State just handed Penn State its most lopsided defeat (63-14) in 114 years.
None of those teams appear particularly vulnerable, yet history suggests that most of them will still lose. The AP, Coaches' and BCS rankings are one thing. However, here's a list of the teams in order of which is
most likely to finish the regular season unscathed.
1. Florida State. Quarterback Jameis Winston and the 'Noles hung 35 first-quarter points on NC State on Saturday. This weekend's game against No. 7 Miami will be billed as a test, but Vegas disagrees, installing Florida State as a three-touchdown favorite. After the 'Canes, coach Jimbo Fisher's team will play Wake Forest (4-4), Syracuse (3-4), Idaho (1-7) and injury-ravaged Florida (4-3) to close out the regular season. Then it's presumably on to the ACC title game, most likely against Miami or Virginia Tech (6-2), which just lost at home to Duke.
This Florida State team has shown no resemblance to previous Seminoles squads that have laid eggs against inferior conference foes. Barring major injury, the 'Noles seem the least likely contender to drop a game given their remaining schedule.
2. Ohio State. Urban Meyer's two national title teams at Florida (2006 and '08) both improved as the season wore on, and the Buckeyes, who were far from dominant during their first seven games, showed they might be following the same arc with Saturday's rout of the Nittany Lions (4-3). The Buckeyes rolled up 408 rushing yards and held Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg to 112 passing yards on 23 attempts.
But the obvious reason Ohio State appears so high on this list is its schedule. All that's left between now and a matchup with That Team Up North are games against Purdue (1-6), Illinois (3-4) and Indiana (3-4). A potentially pesky Big Ten championship opponent is No. 24 Michigan State (7-1), the owner of the nation's top-ranked defense. But the Nov. 30 clash with No. 23 Michigan (6-1) in Ann Arbor will most likely be the make-or-break date.
3. Alabama. It'd make sense to think the Crimson Tide might grow bored at some point, but that's not the case for quarterback AJ McCarron, who did not take kindly to Tennessee referring to Alabama as "the red team" in interviews last week. "I don't think we're just anybody," McCarron said. "We won two national championships in a row and we're undefeated right now."
'Bama's two potential stumbling blocks come on Nov. 9 against No. 11 LSU (7-2) and Nov. 30 at No. 8 Auburn (7-1). In particular, Tigers quarterback Zach Mettenberger and receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry could pose problems for the Tide's Achilles' heel, their secondary. If Alabama does win both games, however, beating whichever team emerges from an injury-riddled SEC East should be nothing more than a formality.
4. Oregon. As I wrote from Eugene, the Ducks encountered a formidable UCLA defense on Saturday, committed multiple turnovers and had a punt blocked ... and still finished with 555 total yards to win 42-14. They've yet to get back a healthy De'Anthony Thomas, who played this week for the first time since Sept. 28 but called it a night after 10 carries due to pain in his ankle.
Still, Oregon's next game alone provides some reason for pause. A week from Thursday, the Ducks will travel to No. 6 Stanford (7-1), the lone team to beat them (and hold them to 14 points, no less) since the start of last season. Coach Mark Helfrich's squad will also play Oregon State (6-2) on Nov. 29 and would have a possible Pac-12 title showdown against the Bruins (5-2) or No. 25 Arizona State (5-2). But it's mostly Stanford that has Oregon relatively low on this list.
5. Baylor. All due credit to quarterback Bryce Petty and the Bears, who racked up another 743 yards against Kansas on Saturday and are
averaging 717.3 yards of total offense per game. It may be foolish to bet against Art Briles' attack. But in many ways, Baylor's season is only now just beginning. Having faced four Big 12 foes with a combined conference record of 2-15, the Bears' last five games include three top-20 opponents (No. 13 Oklahoma, No. 15 Texas Tech and No. 18 Oklahoma State) and Texas (5-2), which is currently tied with Baylor for first place in the league.
6. Miami. It's usually hard to find fault with a 7-0 record, but the 'Canes have required last-minute touchdowns to survive North Carolina (2-5) and Wake Forest in their last two games. This week, they visit Florida State. Coach Al Golden may well lead Miami to a national title eventually. It just won't happen this year.
