🏈 What if

psychojoe

psychojoe

Smart Pill Addict
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Utah runs the table from here

The Baylor/TCU winner is undefeated

The FSU/Clemson winner is undefeated

The MST/OSU winner is unbeaten.

I am confident that if LSU wins out they will be in the four team playoff, and one of the other undefeated conference champions will miss out. What happens if we run the table, including the SEC CG.

Will a one loss Bama bump an undefeated team from one of the other power five conferences..
 
Hard to say. A quick reaction says Baylor/TCU would be left out but they each have each other to play and pretty good OU and OSU teams to still play - solid strength of schedule. No way OSU or Mich St gets left out. FSU really only has a 2 game schedule this year being Clemson and UF. I think most think the PAC is solid and a Utah running the table and beating Michigan has them as one of the 4. It basically comes down to Bama or FSU/Clemson... Not sure how it would work out but Id damn sure be biting my nails.
 
Tough call. I'm not betting on Bama in the playoffs though. Too many teams above us, and too many things need to happen for us to hope to get in.

I prefer to set my expectations low and be pleasantly surprised!

I do think that strength of schedule will play into it to some extent but you really cannot deny a power 5 undefeated team that has consistently been in the top 5 or so all season ..
 
i think the 1 loss ohio state gets bumped by a 1-loss Bama if they lose to MSU just given how sorry they have looked all season.

Baylor drops a game before losing to TCU... probably to Kansas state...maybe okies or okie state.

TCU enters the playoffs undefeated.

Utah loses to USC or UCLA or both.

FSU loses to Clemson and Florida because it is time....

Clemson enters the playoffs undefeated.

so you got this:
TCU undefeated
Clemson undefeated
Ohio st or MSU undefeated (loser gets bumped out of playoffs)
One spot remains for SEC one loss team.. Likely LSU or Bama given Ole Miss's recent demise and Florida team field trip to jail or whatever.
 
jdpas29 said:
i think the 1 loss ohio state gets bumped by a 1-loss Bama if they lose to MSU just given how sorry they have looked all season.

Baylor drops a game before losing to TCU... probably to Kansas state...maybe okies or okie state.

TCU enters the playoffs undefeated.

Utah loses to USC or UCLA or both.

FSU loses to Clemson and Florida because it is time....

Clemson enters the playoffs undefeated.

so you got this:
TCU undefeated
Clemson undefeated
Ohio st or MSU undefeated (loser gets bumped out of playoffs)
One spot remains for SEC one loss team.. Likely LSU or Bama given Ole Miss's recent demise and Florida team field trip to jail or whatever.
Click to expand...

"Florida team field trip to jail" :rolf:
 
Strength of schedule will play a role. On Sagarin, ours is #7, Utah #6...Baylor's is #105(!), TCU #52, OSU #68, and Clemson is #40 (LSU is #28, btw).

As long as the SEC champion has no more than one loss, that team is in - no matter what. I still think OSU loses at least one, if not two. I think Michigan State will lose one as well. Baylor has really played NOBODY but they have three games in November against currently ranked. TCU has played a SLIGHTLY more difficult schedule to date and Baylor/TCU is @TCU. Utah is looking good, but I think they are overrated. They will have three more opportunities to lose this year and if they do, they will plummet. Clemson/FSU determines the ACC.

So, I think you end up with, SEC Champ, ACC Champ if it is either Clemson or FSU (very likely), Baylor/TCU (if one loss or less), and B1G Champ if MSU or OSU with one loss or less. I think Utah loses at least one game and is left out.
 
psychojoe said:
Utah runs the table from here

The Baylor/TCU winner is undefeated

The FSU/Clemson winner is undefeated

The MST/OSU winner is unbeaten.

I am confident that if LSU wins out they will be in the four team playoff, and one of the other undefeated conference champions will miss out. What happens if we run the table, including the SEC CG.

Will a one loss Bama bump an undefeated team from one of the other power five conferences..
Click to expand...

Nope. Because part of the reason this format was expedited and put into place was 2011. So I highly doubt we get in over an undefeated power five conference champion.
 
'65 Cobra said:
Strength of schedule will play a role. On Sagarin, ours is #7, Utah #6...Baylor's is #105(!), TCU #52, OSU #68, and Clemson is #40 (LSU is #28, btw).

As long as the SEC champion has no more than one loss, that team is in - no matter what. I still think OSU loses at least one, if not two. I think Michigan State will lose one as well. Baylor has really played NOBODY but they have three games in November against currently ranked. TCU has played a SLIGHTLY more difficult schedule to date and Baylor/TCU is @TCU. Utah is looking good, but I think they are overrated. They will have three more opportunities to lose this year and if they do, they will plummet. Clemson/FSU determines the ACC.

So, I think you end up with, SEC Champ, ACC Champ if it is either Clemson or FSU (very likely), Baylor/TCU (if one loss or less), and B1G Champ if MSU or OSU with one loss or less. I think Utah loses at least one game and is left out.
Click to expand...

Just a question. When Sagarin gets their SOS, do they figure it only using the opponents' ranking at the time of the game or does it adjust each week based on the opponents overall record? I would imagine the opinion of Bama's SOS has changed nationally based on the trouble teams like Ole Miss, Georgia, Tenn and Auburn are having.

Bama has a tough road ahead to make it into the playoff. There is no way they leave an undefeated TCU, Baylor, Ohio St, MSU or Utah out of the playoff. What's sad is that we still need Ole Miss to lose another SEC game to even have a shot.
 
BigCrimson said:
But here's the question. Why does it matter or even a part of the conversation that they won last year's NC? What relevance does it have?
Click to expand...

Because it gives them that preseason poll edge that they have been riding all season. If it were up to me, the first polls would not come out until a few weeks in. But the way the system currently is, you gotta have rankings at all times.

It's not fair and it should NOT give them an edge, but it is what it is.
 
psychojoe said:
Utah runs the table from here

The Baylor/TCU winner is undefeated

The FSU/Clemson winner is undefeated

The MST/OSU winner is unbeaten.

I am confident that if LSU wins out they will be in the four team playoff, and one of the other undefeated conference champions will miss out. What happens if we run the table, including the SEC CG.

Will a one loss Bama bump an undefeated team from one of the other power five conferences..
Click to expand...

If Alabama wins out, LSU is out. If the other teams you mention win out then factors such as strength of schedule come into play. Yes, some team could be left out. Everyone signed up for that possibility. Remember that the AP and Coaches rankings don't factor into the committee's decision so what seems like "unfair" treatment really isn't. The committee is picking their top 4, not somebody else's.
 
OldPlayer said:
If Alabama wins out, LSU is out. If the other teams you mention win out then factors such as strength of schedule come into play. Yes, some team could be left out. Everyone signed up for that possibility. Remember that the AP and Coaches rankings don't factor into the committee's decision so what seems like "unfair" treatment really isn't. The committee is picking their top 4, not somebody else's.
Click to expand...
I agree with you entirely. This is one possible scenario, four unbeaten conference champions. As someone mentioned elsewhere we still need to run the table and have someone beat Ole Miss to even be SEC champion. Personally I expect OM to drop at least two more. The air has gone out of their balloon. And of course conference championships are not a selection factor, at least not officially.

Utah has the toughest route to unbeaten status, with a couple of difficult road games, plus a likely conference championship game against Stanford.

The FSU/Clemson winner to me has the best shot at going through their conference unbeaten. Ohio State still has Michigan to deal with in addition to Michigan State, and a lot of the bitter taste from this past Saturday would go away if the Wolverines could take down the Buckeyes. Then there is the B1g mystery team, Iowa.

Oklahoma is the main difficulty in the way of Baylor and TCU besides their heads up encounter. Personally I don't think that the Sooners are up to beating either of them.
 

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