🏈 What if

['65 Cobra]

Just a question. When Sagarin gets their SOS, do they figure it only using the opponents' ranking at the time of the game or does it adjust each week based on the opponents overall record? I would imagine the opinion of Bama's SOS has changed nationally based on the trouble teams like Ole Miss, Georgia, Tenn and Auburn are having.

Bama has a tough road ahead to make it into the playoff. There is no way they leave an undefeated TCU, Baylor, Ohio St, MSU or Utah out of the playoff. What's sad is that we still need Ole Miss to lose another SEC game to even have a shot.

Regarding the Sagarin SOS calculations, I believe they are fluid - they adjust as the year goes on. We were #1 toughest schedule at one point. Bama does have a tough row to hoe to get in to the playoffs. However, I believe if we win out, it is automatic, as I believe Ole Miss will lose at least once again and I believe that a one-loss SEC Champ is in. TCU and Baylor as well as OSU an MSU have to play each other, so that eliminates two possible undefeateds from that group. If TCU or Balyor go undefeated they are in. If OSU or MSU go undefeated, they are in. But that's only two spots. I believe Utah will lose at least once. They beat Michigan the very first game of the year. And a factor in that game was that it takes time for an all-new coaching staff (Harbaugh's) to gel with its team and Utah was at home (and at altitude!). Further, they beat Oregon, but Oregon is 4-3 and one of their losses is Washington State. Also, Cal almost beat Utah and Utah State gave them fits. If Clemson wins out, I believe they are in. A lot of "ifs" in here. We need to just take care of what we can control and that starts with beating Tennessee, then LSU, then MSU, then Sisters of the Poor, and then Aubbie.

 

[rammerjammer]

I heard someone on the radio last week, can't remember if it was Barrett Sallee or Lars Anderson, but they mentioned traditional collateral. Made a case for the point that like it or not Alabama, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, etc. Those teams are traditional power houses and will get the nod. Similar to what OSU did last year in jumping TCU.

Cobra said it best, we need to take care of what we can take care of .............everything else will take care of itself.

 

[PhillyGirl]

I heard someone on the radio last week, can't remember if it was Barrett Sallee or Lars Anderson, but they mentioned traditional collateral. Made a case for the point that like it or not Alabama, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, etc. Those teams are traditional power houses and will get the nod. Similar to what OSU did last year in jumping TCU.

Cobra said it best, we need to take care of what we can take care of .............everything else will take care of itself.

I can also see it gong the other way. Fans do get tired of seeing the same teams year in and year out. The hot choice would be to go with a less traditional powerhouse.

We absolutely need to win out. But as we saw in 2012 .. anything can happen (Oregon and Kansas State).

 

[94 Grad]

How many times in the past years has there been 3 viable undefeated teams in the last poll? I can only think of one in 2004 (Auburn, USC, Utah)... Most years only have 1 undefeated team, if any... To hypothesize 4 undefeated teams would be a long shot... just saying.

Win out and then worry about it. Our pathway doesn't change regardless of what happens ahead. We have to win out and then let the chips fall where they may.

 

[We All Bleed Crimson]

Of the power 5 conferences, the big 10 looks the least - at this time. But, the "anti-SEC" sentiment that still seems to be out there may make things a little dicey. I'd like to think that the selection committee would be completely objective. You never know, after all, these people are human.

 

[alabama mike]

Utah runs the table from here- IN

The Baylor/TCU winner is undefeated Baylor should be out bc of its WEAK schedule, TCU would be a toss up

The FSU/Clemson winner is undefeated- IN

The MSU/OSU winner is unbeaten. (fixed for you)- IN

LSU runs the table- IN

1 loss Bama- out


Of course this is if all this happens as you said.

 

[TerryP]

but they mentioned traditional collateral. Made a case for the point that like it or not Alabama, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, etc.

I'd think a one loss Notre Dame team gets the nod for the playoff before a one loss Bama ... because of that tradition.

 

[94 Grad]

Utah runs the table from here- IN

The Baylor/TCU winner is undefeated Baylor should be out bc of its WEAK schedule, TCU would be a toss up

The FSU/Clemson winner is undefeated- IN

The MSU/OSU winner is unbeaten. (fixed for you)- IN

LSU runs the table- IN

1 loss Bama- out


Of course this is if all this happens as you said.

If LSU runs the table, Bama is a two loss team...

 

[94 Grad]

I'd think a one loss Notre Dame team gets the nod for the playoff before a one loss Bama ... because of that tradition.

You mean that tradition where Bama hammered them in the MNC game a few years ago? I don't think a one loss ND gets the nod over a 1 loss Bama, unless Bama isn't the SEC champion.

I'm not sure ND schedule will look all that good by years end either... IF ND were to beat Temple and Pitt, both drop out of the top25. They lost to Clemson, who wouldn't surprise me if they drop one or two games. The GT win looks pointless now. The only other team worth a crap on the schedule is Stanford, who it wouldn't surprise me if they lose to Oregon and Cal prior to the ND game.

 

[OldPlayer]

I agree with you entirely. This is one possible scenario, four unbeaten conference champions. As someone mentioned elsewhere we still need to run the table and have someone beat Ole Miss to even be SEC champion. Personally I expect OM to drop at least two more. The air has gone out of their balloon. And of course conference championships are not a selection factor, at least not officially.

Utah has the toughest route to unbeaten status, with a couple of difficult road games, plus a likely conference championship game against Stanford.

The FSU/Clemson winner to me has the best shot at going through their conference unbeaten. Ohio State still has Michigan to deal with in addition to Michigan State, and a lot of the bitter taste from this past Saturday would go away if the Wolverines could take down the Buckeyes. Then there is the B1g mystery team, Iowa.

Oklahoma is the main difficulty in the way of Baylor and TCU besides their heads up encounter. Personally I don't think that the Sooners are up to beating either of them.

Ole Miss still has to get into the meat of their SEC schedule with A&M, LSU, Auburn and the Egg Bowl (and Arkansas won't be a slouch). Also, losing late in the season hurts more than losing early. There's no opportunity to earn your way back up (applies to Utah, tOSU, FSU/Clemson, Baylor and TCU). I think the committee will look hard at TCU and Baylor since they were left out last year.

 

[TerryP]

You mean that tradition where Bama hammered them in the MNC game a few years ago?

Stop and think about who is making the selections and their opinions of Notre Dame.

While we do carry a lot of weight, there's no school that touches the pull Notre Dame has...media, voters, support, ...

 

[rick4bama]

Everybody see ND plays.

 

[sean]

i learned years ago not to think about "what if". it's just too much headache and heartache.

every game, every season.....every single one.....has a "what if" moment. and it's usually a moment that is thought about by a losing team.

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

I've silently wished we could get Utah in the playoffs ...

Utah, then Ohio St for the marbles.

And to the original question, if Alabama wins out they will have a spot. It's much more likely though that there are zero undefeated teams at the end than 4.

 

[Alabiker]

I know it don't mean nothing, but Vegas has Utah as a 3-4 point dog this weekend against USC. Not a lot of respect there.


"I have a lot of respect for what Coach Wallace has done in that little conference down south, but the Big Ten Conference is certainly a different league as Alabama saw today."

 

[jdpas29]

i feel the same about usc utah. usc looks better without sark.

 

[BigCrimson]

I'm not so sure if there are four other undefeated Power 5 champions that a one loss Bama champion conference champ would leap frog in. Not saying it can't happen. But the committee would REALLY have a lot of pressure to give an air tight reason or there would be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

 

[BamaFan334]

I'd think a one loss Notre Dame team gets the nod for the playoff before a one loss Bama ... because of that tradition.

Sadly I think you're correct. It pisses me off considering we had the toughest schedule in the country, but I have to agree with you here. Basically need Stanford to step mit up against them, have USC lose some more, and Clemson get beat by Florida State to belittle their schedule a little more.

 

[Rolltide24]

I've silently wished we could get Utah in the playoffs ...

Me too. That's one of the teams we owe one to.

It's a fun scenario to contemplate, but we all know every year the teams start falling about now or in another couple of weeks. Even if the top teams are playing lesser opponents, they seem to find a way to blow it. Let's bring up the scenarios again in about 4 weeks.

 

[psychojoe]

Personally, I think the Utes win straight up Saturday. USC was considerably overrated at the start of the season, even without all the Sarkesian drama. I think UCLA at home is their toughest remaining challenge, except for a possible bout with Stanford in the championship game.