Here's a breakdown from
Ben Litvin on Twitter.
I thought Iād share a few *very general* ā and very late night ā thoughts on how I think the Alabama defense should approach their matchup against the Oklahoma offense.
The biggest thing to kinda get out of the way at the beginning is that thereās no stopping this Oklahoma offense. Theyāre gonna score plenty of points on December 29th.
Their offense is one of two best in the country. Kyler is one of the two best quarterbacks in the country. Their offensive line is one of, if not the best unit in the entire country. Their skill guys are awesome, particularly Hollywood who is as electric as any receiver in CFB.
And Lincoln Riley is probably the best offensive coach in the country. Itās a crazy combination ... weāre talking about a historically good offense. They are an absolute machine.
And Alabamaās defense is good. Really good, even. But theyāre not elite as a whole, nor are they elite in all that many specific areas. Thereās no plus matchup here that can be leveraged to the point of turning the overall matchup in Alabamaās favor.
Off the top of my head, Oklahomaās 25th percentile offensive performance probably puts them around 27 points. 50th percentile puts them around 35 points. And their 75th percentile puts them around 48 points. Their floor is really high, as is their ceiling.
But if Oklahoma scores 35 points ā my rough guest at their 50th percentile performance ā Alabamaās win expectancy is probably upwards of 75%. Maybe even higher. 35 points allowed would be a win for Alabama ... and thereās something rather freeing in that conclusion.
Alabamaās defense can go out there, give up plenty of points, and still effectively do their job. But that presents two challenges ... one psychological and one schematic.
I wonāt spend much time discussing the psychological one, but itās very real and significant. This game presents the one of the biggest challenges to Alabamaās āprocessā. Continuing to play the next play while giving up chunks of yards is an immense mental challenge.
And whether the football coaches, mental coaches, and team leaders can adequately prepare the entire defense for that challenge will go an extremely long way in determining whether Alabama gives up 35 points or 52 points.
The next challenge is schematic. One of the best parts about having the sort of margin for error that the Alabama defense has is that it frees them up to take chances. And thatās whatās going to get stops. An aggressive defense thatās hunting turnovers and splash plays.
Iāve seen lots of suggestions that Alabama should employ passive strategies to keep Kyler in the pocket. Mush rush and spy. If you do that then Kyler is going to have all day in the pocket and itāll look exactly like one of his conference games. Heāll pick Alabama apart.
The only way theyāre going to get stops is if they get after Kyler. That means allowing your edge rushers to get upfield. That means lots of TT twists. That means tons of different manufactured pressures. They absolutely *must* create negative plays and turnovers.
And all those things will, inevitably, free up some running lanes for Kyler. Heās going to make some plays with his legs. And itās going to lead to points. But thatās ok, because Alabama can afford to give up plenty of points.
The tradeoff is well worth it. Oklahoma is going to score no matter what. But this way, Alabama maximizes their chances of creating mistakes. Kyler is not going to beat himself against a defense that plays passively. Heās way too good for that and so is the scheme.
Remember that amazing Chiefs/Rams game? The Rams didnāt line up and stop the Chiefs once that whole game. They won because their pass rush forced Mahomes into some mistakes and the Rams offense took care of the rest. Thatās Alabamaās path to victory.