A couple thoughts on these games, from a Utah perspective:
Big_Fan said:
They completely shut down USAF's option attack, which is not surprising given their defensive makeup - speed over power. USAF could not get the corner, and much of USAF's rushing rating has come from their option attack victimizing weak sisters for massive yardage: IE 433 yards against Southern Utah, 401 against SDSU, 284 against Colorado State, etc., so that game does not impress me that much.
I agree, it's tough to take anything away from that game. Playing a team that is that one-dimensional will always lead to some wonky stats.
The Utes held New Mexico to 119 yards - 89 below their average. Again though, the stats for New Mexico have been compiled against terrible rushing defenses...300 against New Mex. St., 419 against SDSU, etc. The New Mexico game is troubling to me. Utah slipped by New Mexico 13-10, and NM was an 8 loss team who got obliterated by Tulsa, and lost to both Washington Schools.
For whatever reason, UNM has been the biggest thorn in our side over the last decade. No matter how good we are or how bad they are, they
always seem to give us trouble. Some of it has to do with their screwy 3-3-5 defense, but I really think some of that is mental as well. That was a game that had all Utah fans gripping, even though we were obviously the better team.
BYU had over 200 yards rushing against Utah, and outgained them 419-415. If not for 5 interceptions (4 in Utah territory) and a fumble, Utah would have come away from that one with a loss.
The total yardage in the BYU game is misleading for 2 reasons. One, they kept giving us the ball in their half of the field, so we didn't need to go terribly far to score. We were moving the ball pretty much at will, so it would have been very lopsided had we needed to go 80 yards instead of 30. Two, the gameplanning for BYU was done almost entirely to shut down the pass (they have the top yardage receiver in the country in Austin Collie), with the running game really being an afterthought. I'm still baffled as to why they didn't attack us more on the ground, but my guess is that we would have adjusted just fine if they had gone that route.
Against TCU, Utah scored a TD with 48 seconds to go, in order to come back and win 13-10. Their final drive was aided by a TCU pass interference, and they had to convert a 4th down. TCU outgained Utah 416 to 275. TCU missed 2 field goals - one of them a chip shot 30 yarder.
What's the saying, "Better to be lucky than good?".
Yes, we probably should have lost that game. But outside of TCU's first two drives, we played them almost completely even. The one thing it did prove (along with the OSU game) is that Brian Johnson is clutch when the game is on the line.
Here is my opinion...If we play our best game against them, and they play their best game against us, we will blow them out. If we play poorly and they play well, we win. If they play poorly and we play well, we will hang half a hundred on them.
I'd somewhat agree with #1, although I'd put it in the range of a 10-14 point Alabama win (whether that qualifies as a "blowout" is up for consideration). Really disagree with #2 though. If we get the same Utah team that played against BYU and the same Alabama team that played against, say, Tulane shows up, then things get
very interesting. I totally agree with #3. If we play poorly, it's going to real ugly real quick.
One other thing to keep in mind. This is the most important game in Utah football history. And probably the biggest strength of this coaching staff is getting this team fired up for big games. My guess is that we'll be plenty ready to play.
EDIT: Apparently I can't spell worth a crap today.