One basketball guy (at least more so than me) I talked to thought the SEC has seen Oats teams so they have adjusted. He thought they would struggle in the SEC tournament but do fine in the NCAA. The NCAA teams Bama plays will not be as familiar with Bama was his argument. I just do not see it. One and done would be my expectation.
Our problem is far from teams adjusting to his style of offense. We're second best in the conference in offensive efficiency and #13 in the country in scoring offense. I don't get why people constantly complain about his system, when it's not the issue. We get more open looks than any team in the country.
The issues are two things: players like JQ and JD being the only adequate ball handlers and defense.
The only two adequate ball handlers on this team are JD and JQ. JD has a lesser usage rate than guys like Releford, Obasahan, and Kira, but turns the ball over almost twice as much. JQ has started doing it too, as we saw on three straight possessions against Vanderbilt where he straight up lost the ball without anyone guarding him. And when you don't have other guys who can beat anyone off the dribble, you get the carelessness that we've seen this year. That is far and away my biggest issue with Oats is that he gives his guys so much offensive freedom, that he doesn't really punish any of the guys for awful turnovers. He'll sit anyone who doesn't take charges, give effort, play defense, etc.. But turnovers? Nope.
Then defensively, it's just a complete freaking mental breakdown. The guys were locked in and played really well against Vanderbilt at first. Then once they realized shots weren't going to fall and the officials were dictating the game, they stopped playing. Same old shit that has been the case the entire year. Last year with Herb, Reese, Petty, Primo, Bruner, and Keon, it didn't matter if shots weren't falling. We went almost an entire month where the offense went flat, but were still getting winning because guys were locked in on defense. This group is mentally weak and will stop giving effort if their playing poorly offensively. Sign of a team with no leadership.
I think we're going to see a mass exodus with this roster regardless of what happens in the tournament. Whether it's guys who are told by Oats or guys who don't like the culture. There were some rumors that Shack may return, but I think he's gone. Gary and Keon Ambrose may be gone as well. The one I don't want to leave is Miles.
But Oats and Hogdson are going to have a big challenge of grabbing guards. I don't have any concern about who they grab in the off season because they're usually solid in getting transfers. But Pearl and Musselman have both shown that you can absolutely build a roster through the transfer.