Editorās note: This week Chris Dortch speaks with ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi to get his take on the Southeastern Conferenceās prospects for the NCAA Tournament. Dortch caught up with Joe after one of his daily bracketology update sessions.
CD: First a general question or two. You duplicate the NCAA Tournamentās selection committeeās efforts on a daily basis. Based on your experience, how difficult a job does the committee have in framing as fair a tournament as possible?
JL: It's a hard job because there is (and can't be) a single set of criteria for evaluation. Committee members must select (37) and seed (68) teams from every part of the country and from every level of Division I basketball. Many, if not most, of their comparisons are not "apples to apples," so there are unavoidable disputes about what are ultimately arbitrary decisions.
CD: How do you rate the committeeās efforts, generally?
JL: More logical and transparent over the past decade or so, although I would say there are individual years with more "head-scratchers" than others. Last year was one of those, although you'd have to rate the overall impact of the new 68-team field as very successful.
CD: Whatās the hardest aspect of doing what you do, which is essentially duplicating, by yourself, what takes an entire committee to complete?
JL: The hardest part is in some ways the easiest part. I am trying to get inside the heads of 10 people and predict what consensus decisions they will reach. The fact that I don't have to consult with nine other "members" makes it a whole lot faster (albeit lonely at the very end!).
CD: Can you take us into specifics on Kentucky and what makes the Wildcats your No. 1 overall seed (if the season ended today) over Syracuse?
JL: I am on record as saying the overall "body of work" from Syracuse is slightly better. However, I believe the committee would not go against the consensus No. 1 team in the country when determining a No. 1 overall. It is also a distinction without a difference, as neither team will have its region affected by this decision nor be bracketed to face the other until a potential national championship game.
CD: Did Mississippi Stateās win at South Carolina on Wednesday night allow the Bulldogs, who had lost five straight, to breathe a little easier?
JL: Just a little. It was a game that could do far more harm than good. The Bulldogs still have work to do and, in my view, need at least two more wins to feel comfortable about their NCAA prospects.
CD: Can you talk about how injuries and suspensions influence the committeeās decisions? For example, given the personnel issues Alabama has dealt with ā a late-summer ACL injury to 7-foot JUCO transfer Moussa Gueye, who would have started, the suspensions of four players, including Tony Mitchell for the season ā does that influence how the committee selects teams and seeds them?
JL: This seems to be more of a factor each year in the committee's deliberations. In Alabama's case, I'd estimate the Crimson Tide will gain about one seed line because of their various personnel issues throughout the season.
CD: What do you think the addition of Texas A&M and Missouri will do for the SEC as a basketball league? Obviously, Missouri is having a great season, but Texas A&M has slipped from the success itās had in recent seasons, in part because of injuries.
JL: Generally a positive for the SEC overall, although each will have to upgrade its non-conference schedule to avoid being a "drag" on existing members. Ultimately, neither is going to challenge Kentucky for long-term superiority in basketball. Unlike most other conference expansions, however, this one at least doesn't hurt the hardwood side of things.
CD: First a general question or two. You duplicate the NCAA Tournamentās selection committeeās efforts on a daily basis. Based on your experience, how difficult a job does the committee have in framing as fair a tournament as possible?
JL: It's a hard job because there is (and can't be) a single set of criteria for evaluation. Committee members must select (37) and seed (68) teams from every part of the country and from every level of Division I basketball. Many, if not most, of their comparisons are not "apples to apples," so there are unavoidable disputes about what are ultimately arbitrary decisions.
CD: How do you rate the committeeās efforts, generally?
JL: More logical and transparent over the past decade or so, although I would say there are individual years with more "head-scratchers" than others. Last year was one of those, although you'd have to rate the overall impact of the new 68-team field as very successful.
CD: Whatās the hardest aspect of doing what you do, which is essentially duplicating, by yourself, what takes an entire committee to complete?
JL: The hardest part is in some ways the easiest part. I am trying to get inside the heads of 10 people and predict what consensus decisions they will reach. The fact that I don't have to consult with nine other "members" makes it a whole lot faster (albeit lonely at the very end!).
CD: Can you take us into specifics on Kentucky and what makes the Wildcats your No. 1 overall seed (if the season ended today) over Syracuse?
JL: I am on record as saying the overall "body of work" from Syracuse is slightly better. However, I believe the committee would not go against the consensus No. 1 team in the country when determining a No. 1 overall. It is also a distinction without a difference, as neither team will have its region affected by this decision nor be bracketed to face the other until a potential national championship game.
CD: Did Mississippi Stateās win at South Carolina on Wednesday night allow the Bulldogs, who had lost five straight, to breathe a little easier?
JL: Just a little. It was a game that could do far more harm than good. The Bulldogs still have work to do and, in my view, need at least two more wins to feel comfortable about their NCAA prospects.
CD: Can you talk about how injuries and suspensions influence the committeeās decisions? For example, given the personnel issues Alabama has dealt with ā a late-summer ACL injury to 7-foot JUCO transfer Moussa Gueye, who would have started, the suspensions of four players, including Tony Mitchell for the season ā does that influence how the committee selects teams and seeds them?
JL: This seems to be more of a factor each year in the committee's deliberations. In Alabama's case, I'd estimate the Crimson Tide will gain about one seed line because of their various personnel issues throughout the season.
CD: What do you think the addition of Texas A&M and Missouri will do for the SEC as a basketball league? Obviously, Missouri is having a great season, but Texas A&M has slipped from the success itās had in recent seasons, in part because of injuries.
JL: Generally a positive for the SEC overall, although each will have to upgrade its non-conference schedule to avoid being a "drag" on existing members. Ultimately, neither is going to challenge Kentucky for long-term superiority in basketball. Unlike most other conference expansions, however, this one at least doesn't hurt the hardwood side of things.
