| FTBL College Football Playoff Rankings Discussions & Updates
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Does SMU-Clemson result matter to Alabama football? Maybe. Maybe not.
An SMU win over Clemson makes it simple for Alabama football to make the College Football Playoff. What about an SMU loss, though?
Let’s start with the simple, easy and clear.
If SMU beats Clemson in the ACC title game Saturday, Alabama football is all but in the College Football Playoff. That’s the result that would create the least amount of shakeup to a field that looks fairly set.
That’s the question permeating discussion right now, and it popped up Tuesday night after the CFP committee revealed its penultimate CFP rankings. Alabama was ranked No. 11 and would be in the playoff if the season ended today. SMU is also in, ranked No. 8. Meanwhile, No. 17 Clemson is not. The Tigers control their own destiny, though. If they win the ACC championship, they will lock up a spot in the CFP as the ACC’s automatic bid, no matter where they rank Sunday.
The question is, what happens to SMU then?
Would it fall far enough to tumble out of the playoff?
CFP chair Warde Manuel opened the door to that possibility Tuesday night. He was asked if SMU could drop below Alabama with a loss to Clemson.
“Potentially, yes,” Manuel said.
Talk about two words with significant weight.
Dropping SMU out because of the result in an extra game could have significant ramifications for the future of conference championships, but it wouldn’t be unprecedented. Teams that have played the extra game have lost and wound up on the outside looking in before. See Georgia a season ago.
But would the committee do it to a team in this new 12-team playoff format? The path seems to be there.
It starts with Manuel’s comments. He could have shut the door on the idea SMU could fall out of the playoff, but he didn’t.
There’s also how Alabama stacks up with SMU. The committee has a handful of arguments via metrics that it has used and could use again Sunday.
Manuel referenced Alabama’s wins against CFP top 25 teams as a primary reason for ranking the Crimson Tide ahead of No. 12 Miami on Tuesday. The Crimson Tide has 3-1 against teams ranked today. Miami doesn’t have a ranked win. Neither does SMU. The Mustangs are also 0-1 against teams ranked today.
The committee could also bring up strength of schedule. Alabama ranks 17th. SMU is No. 75. SMU’s strength of schedule will improve by playing a ranked Clemson team but probably not enough for it to be a toss-up. That’s a lot of ground to make up in that stat.
SMU has a slight edge in strength of record. The Mustangs rank No. 9 and Alabama is No. 10. So that’s essentially a toss-up. But it is comparable.
SMU’s biggest edge will be in straight up record. Even with a loss, SMU would be 11-2 compared to Alabama’s 9-3 record. However, Miami having a better record than Alabama didn’t stop the committee from putting the Crimson Tide ahead of the Hurricanes.
Whether you agree or disagree with those points is somewhat moot. The committee will justify its rankings however it wants to justify them. Sometimes it’s logical, sometimes it’s not. Trying to determine what logic the committee will use is an exercise in futility.
What is clear: Between Manuel’s comments and similar data points the committee has employed before, there’s reason to believe Alabama can make the playoff even with an SMU loss to Clemson.
So, the ACC title game result might not ultimately matter for the Crimson Tide’s fate.
Still. why have it left up to the unpredictable committee? The Mustangs have the ability to make it simple: Beat Clemson and dissolve the “Alabama or SMU” discussion as both live to play another day.
I'd say a team that refused to field a team in a conference championship game would run afoul of its requirements as a member of the conference.
On an unrelated note, I do think many of the bowl games that are not part of the playoff will start looking more like spring scrimmages with the likely number of player opt-outs.
That would be a great metric. Let's ignore how the other conferences fared in early season games against SEC teams...
50+yeartidefan
Member
Probably recovered from vandy.
Out of lsu game.
Bama had it all under control
Sec championship games. First tound bye or home field
And then.......Oooo-kla-homaaaa!
50+yeartidefan
Member
50+yeartidefan
Member
No doubt a bama- nd game would be hugh...massive ratings again...
But the venue ..... at northern Indiana in December....omg.
I lived up there for a winter......its barely survivable
I guess thats punishment for northen teams coming to the south and playing in September
May... have them start looking at neutral site games for first round.
Nothing_But_A_Winner00
Member
It's gonna be cold. It is here in Southern Indiana, but I think it'll be fine minus snow.
TerryP
Staff
There isn't a lot of difference in the outside temps that time of the year between South Bend and Tuscaloosa. Mid 40's as high's...drops in the low 30's at night.
Nothing_But_A_Winner00
Member
I think it's an overblown yankee revenge fantasy.
24and7
Member
It is inevitable, a sweet 16 is coming as soon as next year..
Should only be The great 8 imo
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TerryP
Staff
The coldest game ND has played this season was against Army; mid 40's. They were in New York.
Secondand26
Member
I was talking with a sales rep that I've dealt with over the years - Hard core Domer. He thinks that ND will have a tremendous advantage because when ND played FSU up there it was cold & the FSU players were " intimidated" by the cold! They really believe this stuff!
Yes and I was teen age werewolf too....
bama alum
Member
BamaFan334
Member
I think it's the white jerseys that will hurt us more than the weather. Lost all three this year in those.
