🏈 PJ's Picks ~ WK 4 - SEC and a few NCAA picks

[TerryP]

Lines
Over/Under's
Money Line Picks

Week four: 2015

 

[the Bookie]

WK4: Tennessee at Florida

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PJ's Pick- Have the Vols stepped up to a higher level yet...that is the big question. Early on, in their only real test so far, it looked like it, as they jumped out to a 17-0 lead against Oklahoma. They couldn't close the deal, though, and ended up losing 24-17 in overtime. The answer to me is that they 'aren't quite ready for prime time' because their key players are mostly sophomores and freshmen, and their upperclassmen haven't been the leaders they needed. They will be a difficult opponent this season, but a force to be reckoned with next year, as Butch Jones continues to accumulate depth of talent.

The Gators win over the Vols in last year's game in Knoxville was one of the more improbable ones of last season, one where the stingy Gator defense hung on by its fingernails until the offense finally found just enough juice to get in position for a late field goal to win.

This year? The Gators have started 3-0, and even though they only won by 5 they had last week's game against Kentucky under control most of the way. There seems to be a new mindset among the swamp dwellers, and new enthusiasm among their fans in this the first year of the Jim McIlwain era. This actually looks like an interesting game to watch, as opposed to the dreary ones the last two UT/UF games have been. This should be a good one. I like the hometown buys to win, and to cover the two point spread.​

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Outcomes w/Current Odds

UT +2 : 100/110 ()

UF -2 : 100/110 ()

UT wins : 110/100 ()

UF wins : 100/130 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

WK4: Mississippi State at Auburn

PJ's Pick: With both schools already having one conference loss, this game looks like an elimination game for the SEC West. Both took their loss against LSU, but there the similarity ends. State fought hard and missed what would have been a game winning filed goal at the end of the game, to lose 21-19. Auburn made the questionable decision to try to get in Leonard Fournette's head by trash talking him, an effort that was an epic fail in their 45-21 loss.

At this stage of the season, the bulldogs, having to replace a lot of starters on both sides of the ball, are a little better than I thought they would be. Meanwhile, Auburn was supposed to be better on defense this year, but they have struggled to stop opponents since the first half of their opener against Louisville. Their front seven was supposed to be the strength of their defense, yet LSU's terrific offensive line manhandled them, and Fournette abused them. Memo to Will Muschamp: don't let your defensive guys say anything that Dak Prescott might consider offensive.

Meanwhile, the Auburn offense has not been the explosive force that its supporters expected. Jeremy Johnson, so far, is not a good fit for Auburn's running style of offense, and he has been an interception machine this season with six through three games.

Is Auburn as bad as they looked against LSU? Probably not, but they are nowhere as good as their PR machine was trying to make them at season's start.

What happens Saturday? Auburn's offensive struggles continue, and the boys from Stark Vegas will score enough to cover the spread, Take the bulldogs and give the three points, even if Carl Lawson will play.​

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Outcomes w/Current Odds

MSU +3 : 100/110 ()

Auburn -3 : 100/110 ()

Miss St wins : 135/100 ()

Auburn wins : 100/155 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

WK4: Missouri at Kentucky​

PJ's Pick - Missouri struggled mightily on offense last week against UCONN, and barely escaped with a 9-7 victory. Kentucky likewise had its offensive troubles against Florida, and was on the short end of a 14-9 loss. I like the Wildcats to win here, but just barely. The best play here is the under, presently at 44.

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Mizzou wins : 120/100 ()

UK wins : 100/140 ()

UK -2.5 : 100/110 ()

Mizzou +2.5 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

WK4: LSU at Syracuse (TBA)

PJ's Pick - For those who are trumpeting that the SEC is down, or that the other conferences have caught up, consider this - an undefeated SEC TEAM is playing on the road against an undefeated ACC team, yet the visitors are a 24-25 point favorite. I don't see the odds on this one in the Sportsbook, but I would be inclined to take the Tigers and give points in that range. The 'Cuse has no idea what is about to hit them.

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

WK4: Central Florida at South Carolina

PJ's Pick - Two years ago a very good South Carolina team escaped with a win over what we discovered was a very good UCF team. Not so this year. Both teams have struggled this season, in spite of their high profile coaches. I like the Gamecocks to win straight up, but the line is way too many points to give. Take UCF and the points.

Outcomes w/Current Odds

UCF wins : 450/100 ()

UofSC wins : 100/600 ()

UofSC -14.5 : 100/110 ()

UCF +14.5 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

WK4: Texas A&M vs Arkansas​

PJ's Pick -Unlike a certain nearby school, the Aggies seem to have gotten some immediate benefit from hiring a high profile defensive coordinator. Meanwhile, things are in disarray in pig land, after back to back home losses to non conference opponents. There is a lot of snorting about that going on among the Hog faithful.

The Aggies come in as a 7.5 point favorite, and I like them to both win and cover.

Outcomes w/Current Odds

UArk +7.5 : 100/110 ()

A&M -7.5 : 100/110 ()

A&M wins : 100/300 ()

UArk wins : 250/100 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

PJ's Pick- Vanderbilt still looks woeful on offense. Their defense gave a good account of itself against Georgia, holding down the carnage, and costing many of us a lot of Bama Bucks. Ole Miss won't be as pumped up as they were this past weekend, but they are at home, and they should win comfortably. I expect the Rebel-Bears to cover the spread.

WK4: Vanderbilt at Mississippi

Outcomes w/Current Odds

VAndy +25 : 100/110 ()

Miss -25 : 100/110 ()

Vandy wins : 1500/100 ()

Mississippi wins : 100/3000 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

the Bookie submitted a new Sportsbook Event:

Utah at Oregon (TBA)

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

the Bookie submitted a new Sportsbook Event:

USC at Arizona State

Outcomes w/Current Odds

USC -5.5 : 100/110 ()

ASU +5.5 : 100/110 ()

ASU wins : 180/100 ()

USC wins : 100/220 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

the Bookie submitted a new Sportsbook Event:

UCLA at Arizona

Outcomes w/Current Odds

UCLA -3 : 100/110 ()

Arizona +3 : 100/110 ()

UCLA Wins : 100/145 ()

Arizona wins : 125/100 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

WK4: UL Monroe at Alabama​

I won't spend a lot of time on this one. Yes, I expect us to win. No, I do not expect us to cover at -38. We just have not shown the offensive consistency or explosiveness we would need to make me think we cover.

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Bama wins : 100/15000 ()

ULM wins : 45000/100 ()

Bama -38 : 100/110 ()

ULM +38 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[252BAMA]

Damn! I wish I had asked you to add TCU-TT. O/U is 84. Their O's are so good and their D's are so bad they may hit 184!

 

[psychojoe]

Agreed, and the over on any game involving Baylor is usually a good play since they may hit that number by themselves.